山寨币季节何时到来？比特币 [BTC] 价格可能需要超过 8 万美元才能引发反弹

第三季度，市场情绪普遍看跌山寨币，比特币 [BTC] 的主导地位升至 57% 左右，创下历史新高。

Market sentiment was generally bearish for altcoins in Q3, with Bitcoin [BTC] dominance rising to around 57%, recording a new all-time high. The Altcoin Season Index currently reads 35, after hitting its lowest point in mid-August.

第三季度，市场情绪普遍看跌山寨币，比特币 [BTC] 的主导地位升至 57% 左右，创下历史新高。山寨币季节指数在 8 月中旬触及最低点后，目前为 35。

Typically, altcoins tend to perform well after Bitcoin dominance peaks. As Bitcoin captures market share early in a cycle, capital often shifts to altcoins once BTC dominance begins to fade. This cycle benefits altcoins, as investors seek higher-risk, higher-reward assets.

通常，山寨币往往会在比特币主导地位达到顶峰后表现良好。由于比特币在一个周期的早期占据了市场份额，一旦比特币的主导地位开始消退，资本通常会转向山寨币。这个周期有利于山寨币，因为投资者寻求更高风险、更高回报的资产。

From a statistical standpoint, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to grow by approximately $280 billion to fall within the 62%-70% range for an altcoin season to kickstart. This growth is likely to occur when BTC hits $80K, among various other metrics.

从统计的角度来看，比特币的市值需要增长约 2800 亿美元才能落入 62%-70% 的范围内，山寨币季节才会开始。当 BTC 等各种指标达到 8 万美元时，这种增长可能会发生。

High Bitcoin dominance is crucial

比特币的高度主导地位至关重要

Over time, Bitcoin’s dominance has significantly declined, dropping from 90% in 2013 – when the market was still in its infancy – to a low of 39% in 2021, as altcoins began to gain traction.

随着时间的推移，随着山寨币开始受到关注，比特币的主导地位已显着下降，从 2013 年市场仍处于起步阶段的 90% 降至 2021 年的 39% 低点。

Each altcoin season has been driven by specific catalysts, like the launch of new cryptocurrencies, technological innovations such as ERC-20 tokens, and broader trends like DeFi and NFTs.

每个山寨币季节都是由特定的催化剂推动的，例如新加密货币的推出、ERC-20 代币等技术创新以及 DeFi 和 NFT 等更广泛的趋势。

This suggests that beyond Bitcoin’s market share, individual contributions from altcoins will also play a critical role in sparking the next altcoin season.

这表明，除了比特币的市场份额之外，山寨币的个人贡献也将在引发下一个山寨币季节中发挥关键作用。

Currently, altcoin market standings are too limited to drive a season independently, as altcoin losses often rely on Bitcoin’s returns for stability. For a shift to occur, Bitcoin would likely need to lead with an initial rise.

目前，山寨币市场排名太有限，无法独立推动一个季度的发展，因为山寨币的损失往往依赖于比特币的回报来保持稳定。为了发生转变，比特币可能需要首先上涨。

This trend suggests Bitcoin’s price may need to exceed $80,000 to achieve a BTC dominance above 65%, which could trigger substantial capital inflows into the altcoin market.

这一趋势表明，比特币的价格可能需要超过 80,000 美元才能实现 65% 以上的主导地位，这可能会引发大量资本流入山寨币市场。

Need for high risk appetite

需要高风险偏好

In a recent report, AMBCrypto highlighted an emerging shift in the altcoin market, calling for strategic measures from Ethereum developers to counter growing competition.

在最近的一份报告中，AMBCrypto 强调了山寨币市场正在发生的转变，呼吁以太坊开发商采取战略措施来应对日益激烈的竞争。

Internally, this demands careful assessment, while externally, Bitcoin’s appeal suffers from a widening risk deficit, indirectly hampering altcoins from receiving their due momentum.

从内部来看，这需要仔细评估，而从外部来看，比特币的吸引力因风险赤字扩大而受到影响，间接阻碍了山寨币获得应有的动力。

As gold prices reach new highs, driven by interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin’s stagnant performance underscores limited market risk appetite for crypto.

随着金价在降息和地缘政治紧张局势的推动下创下新高，比特币的停滞表现凸显出市场对加密货币的风险偏好有限。

Historically, an upward trend in the BTC/Gold ratio has been aligned with altcoin season. Therefore, the current decline in risk appetite negatively impacts altcoin performance, indicating that a rising BTC/Gold ratio could serve as a signal for more favorable conditions ahead.

从历史上看，比特币/黄金比率的上升趋势与山寨币季节一致。因此，当前风险偏好的下降对山寨币的表现产生了负面影响，这表明比特币/黄金比率的上升可能是未来条件更加有利的信号。

In short, as BTC undergoes a pullback, the declining BTC/Gold ratio reflects a shift of investors toward perceived safe-haven assets, which undermines Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term store of value.

简而言之，随着比特币的回调，比特币/黄金比率的下降反映出投资者转向被视为避险资产，这削弱了比特币作为长期价值储存手段的吸引力。

This migration highlights the importance of market confidence in BTC’s role as a “digital gold” to support a broader altcoin rally – a rally likely to stabilize once BTC approaches the $80K mark.

这一迁移凸显了市场对 BTC 作为“数字黄金”角色的信心对于支持更广泛的山寨币反弹的重要性——一旦 BTC 接近 8 万美元大关，反弹可能会稳定下来。

Less ETF driven momentum

ETF 驱动动力减弱

Another factor is the relationship between Bitcoin’s price surge and ETFs. While ETF-driven rallies are generally positive, the impact on altcoins can vary.

另一个因素是比特币价格飙升与ETF之间的关系。虽然 ETF 驱动的反弹总体上是积极的，但对山寨币的影响可能有所不同。

The ETF market has experienced significant growth in 2024.

ETF 市场在 2024 年经历了显着增长。

However, when ETFs lead market momentum, funds tend to remain within Bitcoin or Ether rather than rotating into altcoins, as mainstream investors often have limited direct access to them. Instead, capital is likely to flow into crypto-related stocks.

然而，当 ETF 引领市场势头时，资金往往会留在比特币或以太币中，而不是转向山寨币，因为主流投资者直接接触它们的机会往往有限。相反，资金可能会流入加密货币相关股票。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

As a result, a blend of internal and external factors continues to postpone the onset of altcoin season, which remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s price performance.

因此，内部和外部因素的综合作用继续推迟了山寨币季节的到来，而山寨币季节仍然与比特币的价格表现密切相关。

For altcoin season to materialize, Bitcoin would likely need to surpass $80K, a threshold that, given current dynamics, may be challenging to reach by the end of Q4.

为了实现山寨币季节，比特币可能需要超过 8 万美元，考虑到当前的动态，到第四季度末可能很难达到这个门槛。