비상계엄 선포 이후 원·달러 환율 급등했지만 외환보유액 오히려 증가

환율 방어를 위한 적극적인 시장개입보다는 미세조정 방식으로 변동성을 조절한데다, 외화 자산 운용수익도 발생한 것으로 파악됐다.

President Yoon Seok-yeol’s declaration of martial law led to a steep rise in the won-dollar exchange rate, but South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves surprisingly increased.

The adjustment was attributed to the authorities’ minimal intervention in the foreign exchange market to curb the volatility, rather than deploying the reserves aggressively to defend the exchange rate, as well as gains from managing overseas assets.

According to the foreign exchange reserves status for December 2024, released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on Monday, the country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at a total of $415.6 billion as of the end of last month.

The figure marks an increase of $210 million from the $415.39 billion recorded at the end of November last year. By category, while the value of marketable securities decreased by $5.72 billion to $366.67 billion, the value of deposits rose by a larger margin, from $191.3 billion to $252.2 billion, leading to an overall increase in foreign exchange reserves.

Initially, the market was largely concerned that the country’s foreign exchange reserves would be significantly depleted last month. This was due to the soaring exchange rate following the declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, which necessitated the intervention of foreign exchange authorities in the market.

Indeed, the exchange rate rose sharply throughout the month. The rate, which closed at 1,402.9 won to the dollar in interbank transactions on Dec. 3, jumped into the 1,440 won range that night following the declaration of martial law and continued to rise, reaching 1,472.5 won by the end of last month.

During this process, as the foreign exchange authorities engaged in selling dollars, there were even outlooks suggesting that the country’s foreign exchange reserves would fall below the threshold of $400 billion.

However, contrary to the concerns, the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased, largely as a result of the authorities’ minimal intervention in the market, despite the pressing need.

The BOK and the Ministry of Economy and Finance are said to have opted for minimal intervention, aiming to adjust the volatility rather than actively intervening to lower the exchange rate.

Despite the rapid rise in the exchange rate last month, the foreign exchange authorities were observed to have made only verbal interventions, stating that “market stabilization measures will be taken if the volatility worsens,” and the market judged that the volume of actual interventions, presumed to be dollar sales by the authorities, was also limited.

“Smoothing operations were carried out after the declaration of martial law,” BOK Gov. Rhee Chang-yong said at a press conference on price trends in mid-December, adding that “the exchange rate has since been moving in line with the dollar.”

“There were concerns that foreign exchange reserves would fall below the threshold of $410 billion and decrease to the mid- to low-$400 billion range in the mid- to long term, but this did not happen. It did fall below $4,100 billion.”

Apart from the authorities’ minimal intervention, the increase in foreign exchange reserves was also attributed to an uptick in financial institutions’ foreign currency deposits at the end of the quarter and gains from managing overseas assets, which amounted to a significant sum, the BOK explained.