Polymarket Now Forecasts a 92% Probability That Pierre Poilievre Will Succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada's Next Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister of Canada on Wednesday. He will remain in both roles until a new leader is chosen.

Trudeau's resignation comes amid intense scrutiny of his leadership and the Liberal Party. Recent polls show declining support for both Trudeau and the Liberals, with the opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, surging in popularity.

In a press conference, Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down as prime minister once a new party leader is elected through a robust process. He also announced that parliament will be prorogued until March, effectively pausing legislative activities during this transitional period.

Trudeau's resignation marks the end of an era in Canadian politics, with Poilievre now emerging as the frontrunner to succeed Trudeau as prime minister.

Polymarket users are placing bets on the political outcomes and showing a strong preference for Poilievre in the "Next Prime Minister of Canada" betting contract, which has seen over $260,800 in trading volume.

According to the latest Polymarket data, there's a 92% chance that Poilievre will be elected as Canada's next leader on or before October 2025.

Poilievre's rising popularity can be partly attributed to his stance as a vocal opponent of Trudeau's policies, particularly regarding the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Poilievre has strongly opposed a CBDC, highlighting the importance of preserving physical cash and protecting Canadians' privacy. His stance aligns with recent developments, as the Bank of Canada scaled back its CBDC plans in September.

Furthermore, Poilievre's pro-Bitcoin views and his advocacy for making Canada a global leader in blockchain technology have garnered significant appeal, despite facing criticism from some political adversaries over his stance on digital currencies.

Trudeau's declining support and the opposition's surge in popularity set the stage for a major shift in Canadian politics, with Poilievre now poised to lead the Conservative Party into the next federal election.