The Zen calm of the Cederberg was disturbed only by the many creatures – including a dog-mauling leopard

Gary Snyder would have been in his element. But we were kept on our toes by the many creatures, including a dog-mauling leopard (thankfully, we never chanced upon it).

Veteran investor Dave Marrs unpacks his investment strategy for 2023, revealing his approach, key stock picks, and reflections on past investment decisions.

Marrs, who has been investing for over three decades, shared his experiences and insights in an article published by Business Day. He begins by describing a recent family vacation in a remote part of the Cederberg, where the only other person he saw for days was his wife. The peaceful vista and natural surroundings provided an opportunity for reflection and contemplation.

Despite the tranquility of their surroundings, Marrs and his family encountered various creatures that kept them on their toes, including a dog-mauling leopard (which they thankfully never encountered), surreal red Roman “spiders,” an angry bee swarm, a baboon spider on the balcony rafters that appeared large enough to take out a bird, and an armored cricket tucked among the dishes stacked for washing up.

The encounter that seemed to rattle everyone the most was with large locusts sporting Eastern Province rugby colors, which left Dexter, their stout Jack Russell/mastiff cross, badly shaken despite his usual stoicism.

Marrs' wife preferred the catch and release option for pest control, keeping a Tupperware container at the ready, while he favored bludgeoning them with a baseball bat. Their son arrived on Christmas Day, which was not a moment too soon as they had begun bickering about how many lemon slices to wedge into their gin and tonics.

There were two particularly sweltering days when the temperature topped 40°C, and predictably, on both those days, Marrs' trusty bakkie suffered two punctured tires. He had to jack the car up in soft sand and lug around heavy off-road tires.

In between these exertions, Marrs did find time to reflect on his investment strategy. He noted that while he had been investing for three decades, he couldn't claim any great scores. Intense self-scrutiny would put that down to a lack of patience. And, of course, not learning from his mistakes — something he only seemed to manage when he had a bat and ball in hand.

He famously took a profit on Naspers when it more than doubled from R18 to R42. He did the same with Richemont some years back — and with Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI) and Sasol (both during their respective Covid collapses). Now, he wonders if he shouldn't have taken a profit at Brait and Kore Potash.

Marrs feels he might be best suited for investments that he can practically not exit — such as unlisted whisky business Capevin, which appears to be reaching an intriguing juncture with Campari emerging as a significant shareholder (alongside Remgro).

So entering the new year, he is trying his level best to invest in counters that he won't get shaken out of by short-term setbacks. So far, he has started building holdings in AB InBev, Reinet, Grindrod, Prosus (a post-list purchase), and Sasol with Bidcorp, HCI, Remgro, African Rainbow Minerals, Oceana Group, AECI, and the JSE on his watch list.

Marrs is now 16.5% up on Sasol. This is certainly a better short-term outcome than he could have reasonably expected. But he will resist capitulating.

While he's positioning himself in earnest for the long-term winner (with my Nasdaq-verskrik son scoffing “At your ripe old age?”), there are developments that can sorely test such a resolve.

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