In 2024, XRP has underperformed compared to Bitcoin with a YTD decline of 2.5%, while Bitcoin surged by 60%. However, XRP is showing signs of recovery with bullish indicators suggesting an upturn post-Bitcoin halving. Historically, XRP has outperformed BTC around halving times, with significant gains observed after the third and second halvings. The XRP/BTC pair is currently in a bullish falling wedge pattern, with a breakout target of 0.00001022 BTC. Longer-term targets include hitting the 50-week EMA at 0.00001449 BTC by June 2024, marking a potential 70% increase. Notably, there is an accumulation phase among large XRP holders, indicating growing bullish sentiment ahead of the halving.
Emerging Signs of Recovery for XRP as Bitcoin Halving Approaches
In the realm of cryptocurrency, the year 2024 has witnessed a noticeable disparity in the performances of Bitcoin and XRP. While Bitcoin has ascended by a remarkable 60% year-to-date (YTD), XRP has languished, enduring a decline of approximately 2.5%. Consequently, the XRP/BTC exchange rate has plummeted by a substantial 40% YTD.
However, amidst this underperformance, there are encouraging indications of a potential resurgence for XRP as the momentous Bitcoin halving event draws near. Several bullish indicators are coalescing, suggesting that XRP's performance may experience a significant enhancement post-halving.
Historically, XRP has exhibited a peculiar pattern of outperforming Bitcoin during halving periods. Following the third Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the XRP/BTC pair soared by an impressive 100%. A similar trend manifested during the second halving in July 2016, with the pair recording an 85% surge. These historical precedents paint a promising picture for XRP's prospects after the forthcoming halving scheduled for April 19.
The observed gains in the XRP/BTC pair are primarily attributed to a characteristic post-halving decrease in Bitcoin's market dominance. This phenomenon prompts traders to shift their investments from Bitcoin to altcoins, often leading to a surge in altcoin prices—a trend commonly known as "altseason." Altcoins like XRP, with their relatively smaller market caps and higher volatility compared to Bitcoin, offer the potential for substantial short-term gains.
From a technical perspective, the XRP/BTC pair has been confined within a descending wedge pattern since February. This pattern is characterized by a price oscillation within a wedge defined by two converging trendlines. Traditionally, this pattern is interpreted as a bullish reversal indicator, suggesting an impending upward move once the price breaches above the upper trendline. For XRP, the projected breakout target for April/May is 0.00001022 BTC, representing a promising 16.75% increase from current levels.
Extending our gaze further ahead, XRP's weekly price target against Bitcoin by June 2024 is set at 0.00001449 BTC, coinciding with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This target signifies a substantial 70% growth from its current price. Historically, traders have consistently targeted this 50-week EMA as a bullish objective following previous Bitcoin halvings.
Furthermore, XRP is experiencing a notable accumulation phase among its largest investors. Since early March, there has been a significant increase in the number of entities holding over 1 million XRP tokens. This surge in accumulation has been paralleled by a rise in the number of holders possessing at least 100,000 XRP tokens since April. This influx of large-scale investment indicates a growing bullish sentiment among whales in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving.
