Under the shadow of the tariff war, BTC experienced a false breakout against the 30-day moving average resistance line

Today, it once dipped below the 81K mark, reaching a new low since March 18. A total of 78688 people across the network have been liquidated

The shadow of the tariff war fell on the crypto market this week, causing BTC to experience a false breakout against the 30-day moving average resistance line in the past week, trying to break through but then softening.

Today, it once dipped below the 81K mark, reaching a new low since March 18. A total of 78,688 people across the network were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $198 million.

It is worth noting that after the U.S. presidential election in November last year, the daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies surged to a peak of $126 billion, but now the trading volume has decreased by about 70% from the peak to $35 billion, returning to pre-election levels.

The culprit of the crash: three 'nuclear bombs' triggered a chain reaction.

1. Trump’s tariff bomb

The threat of auto tariffs originally scheduled for April 2 leaked early; although the actual tax rate may be lower than expected, the market still panicked and sold off risk assets. Even more fatal was the sudden sell-off after the founder of Trump Coin made a high-profile marketing push, triggering a trust crisis for 'political concept coins' and spreading panic throughout the market.

2. Huge options expiration

On March 28, the quarterly expiration day saw a total of $9.5 billion in options expiring, with Bitcoin's biggest pain point at $85,000, causing the market makers to frantically sell off to maximize profits. Ethereum's $2,000 call options collectively went to zero, and the dual massacre in the derivatives market triggered a series of on-chain liquidations.

3. Technical death cross (structural nuclear explosion)

The daily EMA30 and EMA120 of Bitcoin have formed a death cross, and the weekly MACD divergence signal has been confirmed. After losing the key support level of $84,600, it triggered quantitative trading programs to automatically sell off, forming a 'drop-liquidation-further drop' death spiral.

Bitcoin is currently under pressure at 83,000, with liquidity exhaustion causing increased volatility. Altcoins may face more severe selling pressure, and currently, it has also fallen below the logarithmic trend line, while the linear trend line stands as support, roughly around 81,600. Looking below, we continue to watch for BTC to form a triple bottom starting with 7.

We are currently in a vague phase before Trump's tariffs on April 2nd. Before this, due to uncertainty over what tariffs Trump will implement, all major capital has been relatively cautious, with some particularly cautious investors getting scared away.

Here are three possible scenarios from Citibank regarding the April 2 tariff implementation, worth checking out:

In summary, there are only three scenarios for the tariff day on April 2nd: no drop, drop, and significant drop.

Last night, the puppets MUPPETS missed an entry point around 1M, and then due to time zone reasons, missed the second wave of fermentation. It seems that from time to time BNBCHAINZH can still present opportunities and has not been completely knocked down.

This morning a friend asked me if I wanted to go ambush a mention by the two saints, or something like Alpha, and I said 'No'.

I will only stick to the strategies with the highest win rates going forward, which is to bet small and win big. I will hold back if there are no opportunities with more than fivefold potential.

In less than 12 hours, the logic has been validated, and the puppets MUPPETS have dropped below 5M.If you entered on my internal skirt at 12.5M, your maximum gain would be less than double (60%), but if you are still waiting for a positive signal similar to Alpha, then the loss is (65%).

A 60% increase and a 60% decrease are vastly different; they do not simply cancel each other out. If an asset drops by 60%, it needs to rise by 150% to return to its original price.In the recent meme market, if I don't see at least a fivefold increase potential, I won't act. It's much better to go out and have fun with family over the weekend than to send it to the front row.

The altcoin market has entered a level where it can hardly drop further, with its market cap ratio only remaining at 35%!

If you are not afraid of a 10% to 35% drop in the exchange rate of the altcoins you hold, then there is no need to cut losses at the current state. Market liquidity will eventually return, and those who have spent too much time and cost have already incurred too high of a sunk cost.

Where