US Regulators Signal Rejection of Ethereum Spot ETFs, Industry Unlikely to Mount Legal Battle

Regulators in the U.S. are unlikely to approve spot ETFs for Ethereum (ETH), due to the asset's lower market capitalization and institutional interest compared to Bitcoin. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes the crypto industry may not pursue legal action due to the potential limited returns and resources required.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Face Uncertain Future as Regulators Signal Rejection

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, U.S. regulators are likely to reject Ethereum (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This assessment contradicts Balchunas' previous optimism about Bitcoin spot ETFs prior to their January approval.

Industry Unlikely to Wage Legal Battle

Balchunas' analysis suggests that the crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if it denies ETH spot ETF applications. This conclusion is based on the relatively small size of Ethereum futures ETFs, which hold only 4% of the assets held by Bitcoin futures ETFs.

Limited Institutional Appetite for Ethereum

The analyst cites the lack of investor interest in the ProShares Ether Strategy ETF, which launched approximately two years after its Bitcoin counterpart and currently holds significantly less assets under management (AUM). This disparity indicates that institutional investors may have less appetite for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

Industry Experts Corroborate Market Sentiment

Sponsors of major Bitcoin ETFs have expressed similar views, suggesting that institutional investors prioritize Bitcoin over Ethereum. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Ethereum ETFs may gain more traction if launched after Bitcoin ETFs, while Robert Mitchnick of BlackRock prioritized Bitcoin exposure among clients.

Grayscale's Ambiguous Stance

Ethereum proponents argue that comparing the performance of futures ETFs is inappropriate given their different launch timings. However, Balchunas counters that Grayscale, a major Bitcoin ETF provider, is unlikely to support legal action for an Ethereum ETF that is likely to have a smaller market share.

SEC's Stance on Spot ETFs

Previously, the SEC opposed Bitcoin spot ETFs, citing concerns about market manipulation. However, a lawsuit by Grayscale prompted the SEC to reverse this stance, leading to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Grayscale's Dilemma

Ironically, the increased competition resulting from ETF approvals has led to outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), eroding its market share. Balchunas questions whether Grayscale would be willing to incur the legal expenses and risk further outflows for an Ethereum ETF with a potentially smaller market size.

Conclusion

The latest analysis from Bloomberg suggests that Ethereum spot ETFs are unlikely to gain regulatory approval in the near future. The crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight, and institutional investors may not have the same level of interest in Ethereum as they do in Bitcoin. Grayscale's stance on an Ethereum ETF remains unclear, and the future of Ethereum spot ETFs remains uncertain.