Ethereum (ETH) Registers 4 Consecutive Red Monthly Candles, ETH/BTC Ratio Hits New 5-Year Low

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), registered four consecutive red monthly candles after the altcoin dropped 18.47% in March.

The cryptocurrency market saw some red close out March, with the chart of Ether (ETH) revealing four consecutive bearish monthly candles.

While the altcoin is currently trading at $1,734.48, down 18.47% over the month, the current market structure is showing a sustained bearish trend that has not been seen since the bear market of 2022.

With each monthly candle close taking place below the previous month’s low, analysts are beginning the debate about whether ETH is approaching a bottom or if there is more downside ahead for the altcoin.

ETH/BTC ratio hits new 5-year low

On March 30, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio dropped to a five-year low of 0.021. The ETH/BTC ratio measures ETH’s value against Bitcoin (BTC), and the current decline underlines Ether’s underperformance against Bitcoin over the past five years.

In fact, the last time the ETH/BTC ratio dipped to 0.021, ETH was valued between $150-$300 in May 2020.

ETH/BTC 1-month chart. Chart: TradingView

Data from the token terminal showed Ethereum’s monthly fees dropped to $22 million in March 20205, its lowest level since June 2020, indicating low network activity and market interest.

Ethereum fees represent the cost users pay for transactions, which is influenced by network demand. When network fees begin to drop, it indicates reduced network utility.

Despite the price action and revenue malaise, Ethereum analyst VentureFounder said that the ETH/BTC bottom could occur over the next few weeks. The analyst hinted at a potential bottom between 0.017 and 0.022, suggesting that the ratio might drop further before a recovery. The analyst said,

“The ETH/BTC ratio has been showing some interesting moves recently. Personally, I'm expecting the bottom to form around 0.017-0.022 over the next few weeks.

We're currently at a critical fib level (0.021) which is also the low from May 2020 when ETH was 150-300.”

Historical odds favor a short-term bottom

Since its inception, ETH has registered three or more consecutive bearish monthly candles on five occasions, and each time, a short-term bottom was the result. The chart below shows that the most back-to-back red months occurred in 2018, with seven, but prices jumped 83% after the correction.

In 2022, after three consecutive bearish months, ETH price consolidated in a range for almost a year, but the bottom was in on the third bearish candle in June 2022.

Historically, Ethereum has a 75% probability of having a green month in April.

Related: Eric Trump’s ‘add ETH’ advice has almost wiped out $100k in 7 months

Based on Ethereum’s past quarterly returns, the altcoin experienced the least number of drawdowns in Q2 compared to other quarters. With the average returns in Q2 as high as 60.59%, the likelihood of positive returns in April.