Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will BTC Break Out Above $86,000 to Signal the Start of a Recovery?

Bitcoin is currently holding above the $81,000 level, but bulls continue to struggle with reclaiming the $86,000 mark — a key resistance that must be broken to signal the start of a meaningful recovery.

The average funding rate across four major exchanges (Binance, ByBit, OKX, and Deribit) has recently dropped into negative territory and is now hovering just above zero, according to top analyst Axel Adler.

This setup has occurred five times in the current cycle, and four of those instances led to price increases, while only one resulted in a further decline, making it a potentially important signal to watch.

As macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating trade war fears continue to dominate headlines, bulls are struggling to reclaim the $86,000 mark — a key resistance that must be broken to signal the start of a meaningful recovery.

However, the lack of bullish momentum has left traders somewhat pessimistic, especially with several analysts expecting a deeper breakdown if crucial support levels are lost.

Global markets remain fragile, and high-risk assets like Bitcoin are feeling the pressure as a result. Despite managing to hold above a critical support zone, the cryptocurrency's inability to push higher has left traders cautious and sentiment subdued.

"Several on-chain signals are quietly turning positive," said Adler as he shared new insights.

"The corporate sector has resumed accumulating Bitcoin, spot market selling pressure is low, experienced investors have stopped selling, and LTHs are back in accumulation mode. These signs suggest that market conditions are normalizing after a period of overheating."

However, he believes that the key issue now is the macro backdrop. Only positive signals from the Fed or the Trump Administration can reintroduce strong inflows — particularly through ETFs. A renewed cash influx could act as the catalyst for a major breakout.

"Major speculators also need a clear target to aim for in the next quarter," he said.

"Considering the significant price appreciation since the start of the year, aiming for another 50% price increase seems like a logical goal, which would put a $130,000 price target in sight."

For now, Bitcoin's next move will depend on whether macro conditions ease — or continue to weigh down an otherwise structurally strong market.