比特币（BTC）价格预测：BTC是否会在86,000美元以上突破以表明恢复的开始？

比特币目前的水平高于81,000美元的水平，但公牛继续在收回86,000美元的大关方面挣扎 - 这是必须损坏的关键阻力，以表明有意义的恢复的开始。

The average funding rate across four major exchanges (Binance, ByBit, OKX, and Deribit) has recently dropped into negative territory and is now hovering just above zero, according to top analyst Axel Adler.

根据顶级分析师Axel Adler的说法，根据顶级分析师Axel Adler的说法，跨四个主要交易所（Binance，Bybit，Okx和Deribit）的平均融资率最近降至负领土，现在徘徊在零以上。

This setup has occurred five times in the current cycle, and four of those instances led to price increases, while only one resulted in a further decline, making it a potentially important signal to watch.

在当前周期中，这种设置发生了五次，其中四个实例导致价格上涨，而只有一个导致了进一步的下降，这使其成为一个潜在的重要信号。

As macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating trade war fears continue to dominate headlines, bulls are struggling to reclaim the $86,000 mark — a key resistance that must be broken to signal the start of a meaningful recovery.

随着宏观经济的不确定性和不断升级的贸易战争的恐惧继续主导着头条新闻，公牛队正在努力夺回86,000美元的大关，这是必须打破的关键抵抗，以表明有意义的恢复的开始。

However, the lack of bullish momentum has left traders somewhat pessimistic, especially with several analysts expecting a deeper breakdown if crucial support levels are lost.

但是，缺乏看涨的势头使交易者有些悲观，尤其是在几位分析师期望失去关键支持水平的情况下会更深的崩溃。

Global markets remain fragile, and high-risk assets like Bitcoin are feeling the pressure as a result. Despite managing to hold above a critical support zone, the cryptocurrency's inability to push higher has left traders cautious and sentiment subdued.

全球市场仍然脆弱，因此，像比特币这样的高风险资产正在感觉到压力。尽管设法超过了关键的支持区，但加密货币无法推动更高的推动，这使交易者谨慎而情绪。

"Several on-chain signals are quietly turning positive," said Adler as he shared new insights.

阿德勒分享了新见解时说：“几个链上信号悄悄地转向积极。”

"The corporate sector has resumed accumulating Bitcoin, spot market selling pressure is low, experienced investors have stopped selling, and LTHs are back in accumulation mode. These signs suggest that market conditions are normalizing after a period of overheating."

“公司部门已经恢复了积累比特币，现货市场销售压力很低，经验丰富的投资者停止销售，而LTHS又重新累积了。这些迹象表明，过热一段时间后市场条件正常化。”

However, he believes that the key issue now is the macro backdrop. Only positive signals from the Fed or the Trump Administration can reintroduce strong inflows — particularly through ETFs. A renewed cash influx could act as the catalyst for a major breakout.

但是，他认为现在的关键问题是宏观背景。只有来自美联储或特朗普政府的积极信号才能重新引入大量的流入，尤其是通过ETF。新的现金涌入可以充当重大突破的催化剂。

"Major speculators also need a clear target to aim for in the next quarter," he said.

他说：“主要投机者还需要一个明确的目标才能在下一个季度实现目标。”

"Considering the significant price appreciation since the start of the year, aiming for another 50% price increase seems like a logical goal, which would put a $130,000 price target in sight."

“考虑到自今年年初以来的价格赞赏，目标是又有50％的价格上涨似乎是一个合乎逻辑的目标，这将使目标价为130,000美元。”

For now, Bitcoin's next move will depend on whether macro conditions ease — or continue to weigh down an otherwise structurally strong market.

目前，比特币的下一步行动将取决于宏观条件是否缓解 - 还是继续压低原本结构强的市场。