How Far Are We Into the Current Bull Market for Crypto?

When we are drafting this report, the price of Bitcoin is hovering close to US$95K. On November 22, 2024, it almost reached the significant

When we are drafting this report, the price of Bitcoin is hovering close to US$95K. On November 22, 2024, it almost reached the significant and often elusive US$100K mark. On that date, Bitcoin registered an all-time high by crossing the mark of US$99,655.

The recent steep surge in Bitcoin prices—especially after Donald Trump's victory—has left many curious about how long this glorious bull run for Bitcoin will continue. Let us start with that question: How far are we into the current bull market for crypto?

How Far Are We Into the Current Bull Market for Crypto?

According to investment analysts, the bull market for crypto is far from over. Galaxy Research reported that Bitcoin is expected to punch through the US$100K barrier in the near term for several reasons.

Expectations are ripe that institutional and corporate adoption of crypto will rise. The research also pointed to the possibility of Bitcoin nation-state reserves aiding the asset's growth.

At the end of July this year, the Senator for Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act in the US Senate.

In her remarks, etching out the pivotal role Bitcoin could play in shaping the country's economy, Lummis said:

“Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world, and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.“

On October 23, 2024, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed House Bill 2481—dubbed the “Bitcoin Rights” bill by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund—with a decisive 176–26 bipartisan vote.

The Galaxy research report also anticipates the new US administration to be more inclined – predictably- towards a regime with many positive crypto regulations. According to the analyst writing the report, the bull run of crypto may continue for the next couple of years.

He believed the bitcoin setup over the next two years appeared “unique and bullish.”

However, according to Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, the journey for Bitcoin might not be super smooth. He believed:

“There could even be some twilight regulatory or law enforcement actions from the outgoing Biden administration that jitter markets.”

While analysts keep weighing factors that would influence the Bitcoin trajectory, there is one more technical aspect that we could look at to understand how far we're into the bull market. And that aspect relates to the phenomenon of Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin Halving and the Period After It

In short, Bitcoin halving refers to an event that takes place every four years. The event reduces block rewards by 50% in the expectation that it will lower supply, increase scarcity, and eventually lead to an uptick in the asset's price. The last halving event occurred on April 19, 2024. It has been more than seven months since then, yet the price of Bitcoin continues to grow. However, there is a more specific way to calculate when Bitcoin will reach its peak since it has had its last halving.

Reports suggest that in the past three halvings that happened in 2012, 2016, and 2020, there was an average price increase of 16% over the sixty days that followed the halving. However, there were exceptions on an individual level. For instance, in 2016, the halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.

The analysis was done by 10X Research, and according to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10X, the halving was “associated with price increases due to reduced supply,” but investors would have to wait for a price peak, which typically came 500 days after a halving.

If we are to take these 500 days into account, which is close to one year, four months, and more, the price peak of Bitcoin after the latest halving should come any time during August 2025.

While Bitcoin might be expected to peak during August 2025, analysts are also curious about the peaking of Altcoins.

How Many Days Post Bitcoin-Halving Do Altcoins Peak?

However, the crypto world has many other components besides Bitcoin. There is a vast empire of altcoins. As we know, altcoins, or alternative coins, refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the most representative asset in the crypto kingdom. It is rather obvious that any persistent surge in its prices would have a ripple