目前的加密貨幣多頭市場還有多遠？

當我們起草這份報告時，比特幣的價格徘徊在 95,000 美元附近。 2024年11月22日，它幾乎達到了顯著的水平

When we are drafting this report, the price of Bitcoin is hovering close to US$95K. On November 22, 2024, it almost reached the significant and often elusive US$100K mark. On that date, Bitcoin registered an all-time high by crossing the mark of US$99,655.

當我們起草這份報告時，比特幣的價格徘徊在 95,000 美元附近。 2024 年 11 月 22 日，它幾乎達到了 10 萬美元常常難以捉摸的大關。當天，比特幣突破 99,655 美元，創下歷史新高。

The recent steep surge in Bitcoin prices—especially after Donald Trump's victory—has left many curious about how long this glorious bull run for Bitcoin will continue. Let us start with that question: How far are we into the current bull market for crypto?

最近比特幣價格的急劇上漲——尤其是在唐納德·川普獲勝之後——讓許多人好奇比特幣的這種輝煌的牛市會持續多久。讓我們從這個問題開始：我們距離目前的加密貨幣牛市還有多遠？

How Far Are We Into the Current Bull Market for Crypto?

目前的加密貨幣多頭市場還有多遠？

According to investment analysts, the bull market for crypto is far from over. Galaxy Research reported that Bitcoin is expected to punch through the US$100K barrier in the near term for several reasons.

投資分析師表示，加密貨幣的多頭市場還遠遠沒有結束。 Galaxy Research 報告稱，出於多種原因，比特幣預計將在短期內突破 10 萬美元大關。

Expectations are ripe that institutional and corporate adoption of crypto will rise. The research also pointed to the possibility of Bitcoin nation-state reserves aiding the asset's growth.

人們對加密貨幣的機構和企業採用率將會上升的預期已經成熟。該研究也指出了比特幣國家儲備有助於該資產成長的可能性。

At the end of July this year, the Senator for Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act in the US Senate.

今年7月底，懷俄明州參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis)在美國參議院正式提出了《透過全國優化投資促進創新、技術和競爭力（比特幣）法案》。

In her remarks, etching out the pivotal role Bitcoin could play in shaping the country's economy, Lummis said:

魯米斯在演講中闡述了比特幣在塑造國家經濟方面可能發揮的關鍵作用，她說：

“Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world, and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.“

「比特幣不僅正在改變我們的國家，而且正在改變世界，成為第一個使用比特幣作為儲蓄技術的已開發國家，鞏固了我們作為金融創新全球領導者的地位。這是我們購買路易斯安那州的時刻，它將幫助我們達到下一個財務前沿。

On October 23, 2024, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed House Bill 2481—dubbed the “Bitcoin Rights” bill by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund—with a decisive 176–26 bipartisan vote.

2024 年10 月23 日，賓州眾議院以176 比26 的決定性兩黨投票結果通過了眾議院第2481 號法案，該法案被中本聰行動基金聯合創始人丹尼斯·波特稱為“比特幣權利”法案。

The Galaxy research report also anticipates the new US administration to be more inclined – predictably- towards a regime with many positive crypto regulations. According to the analyst writing the report, the bull run of crypto may continue for the next couple of years.

Galaxy 研究報告也預計，美國新政府將更傾向於（可以預見的）擁有許多積極的加密貨幣法規的政權。根據撰寫報告的分析師的說法，加密貨幣的多頭市場可能會在未來幾年持續下去。

He believed the bitcoin setup over the next two years appeared “unique and bullish.”

他認為未來兩年​​的比特幣格局顯得「獨特且看漲」。

However, according to Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, the journey for Bitcoin might not be super smooth. He believed:

然而，Galaxy 研究主管 Alex Thorn 表示，比特幣的發展之路可能不會非常順利。他相信：

“There could even be some twilight regulatory or law enforcement actions from the outgoing Biden administration that jitter markets.”

“即將卸任的拜登政府甚至可能會在黃昏時採取一些監管或執法行動，令市場感到不安。”

While analysts keep weighing factors that would influence the Bitcoin trajectory, there is one more technical aspect that we could look at to understand how far we're into the bull market. And that aspect relates to the phenomenon of Bitcoin halving.

儘管分析師不斷權衡影響比特幣走勢的因素，但我們也可以從另一個技術方面來了解我們進入牛市的程度。這方面與比特幣減半現像有關。

Bitcoin Halving and the Period After It

比特幣減半及其之後的時期

In short, Bitcoin halving refers to an event that takes place every four years. The event reduces block rewards by 50% in the expectation that it will lower supply, increase scarcity, and eventually lead to an uptick in the asset's price. The last halving event occurred on April 19, 2024. It has been more than seven months since then, yet the price of Bitcoin continues to grow. However, there is a more specific way to calculate when Bitcoin will reach its peak since it has had its last halving.

簡而言之，比特幣減半是指每四年發生一次的事件。該事件將區塊獎勵減少 50%，預計將減少供應、增加稀缺性，最終導致資產價格上漲。上一次減半事件發生在2024年4月19日，至今已過去7個多月，但比特幣的價格仍持續上漲。然而，有一種更具體的方法來計算比特幣自上次減半以來何時達到高峰。

Reports suggest that in the past three halvings that happened in 2012, 2016, and 2020, there was an average price increase of 16% over the sixty days that followed the halving. However, there were exceptions on an individual level. For instance, in 2016, the halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.

報告顯示，在過去 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年發生的三次減半中，減半後的 60 天內價格平均上漲了 16%。然而，在個人層面上也有例外。例如，2016 年減半導致接下來的 60 天內下跌 6%，儘管隨後在 2017 年強勁反彈。

The analysis was done by 10X Research, and according to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10X, the halving was “associated with price increases due to reduced supply,” but investors would have to wait for a price peak, which typically came 500 days after a halving.

該分析由 10X Research 完成，根據 10X 研究主管 Markus Thielen 的說法，減半“與供應減少導致的價格上漲有關”，但投資者必須等待價格峰值，該峰值通常為 500減半後幾天。

If we are to take these 500 days into account, which is close to one year, four months, and more, the price peak of Bitcoin after the latest halving should come any time during August 2025.

如果我們考慮到這 500 天，即接近一年四個月甚至更長的時間，那麼最近一次減半後比特幣的價格高峰應該會在 2025 年 8 月的任何時間到來。

While Bitcoin might be expected to peak during August 2025, analysts are also curious about the peaking of Altcoins.

雖然比特幣預計將在 2025 年 8 月達到峰值，但分析師也對山寨幣的峰值感到好奇。

How Many Days Post Bitcoin-Halving Do Altcoins Peak?

比特幣減半後多少天山寨幣會達到高峰？

However, the crypto world has many other components besides Bitcoin. There is a vast empire of altcoins. As we know, altcoins, or alternative coins, refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.

然而，除了比特幣之外，加密世界還有許多其他組成部分。有一個巨大的山寨幣帝國。眾所周知，山寨幣或替代幣是指除比特幣之外的所有加密貨幣。

Bitcoin is the most representative asset in the crypto kingdom. It is rather obvious that any persistent surge in its prices would have a ripple

比特幣是加密王國中最具代表性的資產。很明顯，其價格的任何持續上漲都會產生連鎖反應