当前的加密货币牛市还有多远？

当我们起草这份报告时，比特币的价格徘徊在 9.5 万美元附近。 2024年11月22日，它几乎达到了显着的水平

When we are drafting this report, the price of Bitcoin is hovering close to US$95K. On November 22, 2024, it almost reached the significant and often elusive US$100K mark. On that date, Bitcoin registered an all-time high by crossing the mark of US$99,655.

当我们起草这份报告时，比特币的价格徘徊在 9.5 万美元附近。 2024 年 11 月 22 日，它几乎达到了常常难以捉摸的 10 万美元大关。当天，比特币突破 99,655 美元，创下历史新高。

The recent steep surge in Bitcoin prices—especially after Donald Trump's victory—has left many curious about how long this glorious bull run for Bitcoin will continue. Let us start with that question: How far are we into the current bull market for crypto?

最近比特币价格的急剧上涨——尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普获胜之后——让许多人好奇比特币的这种辉煌的牛市会持续多久。让我们从这个问题开始：我们距离当前的加密货币牛市还有多远？

How Far Are We Into the Current Bull Market for Crypto?

当前的加密货币牛市还有多远？

According to investment analysts, the bull market for crypto is far from over. Galaxy Research reported that Bitcoin is expected to punch through the US$100K barrier in the near term for several reasons.

投资分析师表示，加密货币的牛市还远未结束。 Galaxy Research 报告称，出于多种原因，比特币预计将在短期内突破 10 万美元大关。

Expectations are ripe that institutional and corporate adoption of crypto will rise. The research also pointed to the possibility of Bitcoin nation-state reserves aiding the asset's growth.

人们对加密货币的机构和企业采用率将会上升的预期已经成熟。该研究还指出了比特币国家储备有助于该资产增长的可能性。

At the end of July this year, the Senator for Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act in the US Senate.

今年7月底，怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)在美国参议院正式提出了《通过全国优化投资促进创新、技术和竞争力（比特币）法案》。

In her remarks, etching out the pivotal role Bitcoin could play in shaping the country's economy, Lummis said:

鲁米斯在讲话中阐述了比特币在塑造国家经济方面可能发挥的关键作用，她说：

“Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world, and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.“

“比特币不仅正在改变我们的国家，而且正在改变世界，成为第一个使用比特币作为储蓄技术的发达国家，巩固了我们作为金融创新全球领导者的地位。这是我们购买路易斯安那州的时刻，它将帮助我们达到下一个财务前沿。”

On October 23, 2024, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed House Bill 2481—dubbed the “Bitcoin Rights” bill by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund—with a decisive 176–26 bipartisan vote.

2024 年 10 月 23 日，宾夕法尼亚州众议院以 176 比 26 的决定性两党投票结果通过了众议院第 2481 号法案，该法案被中本聪行动基金联合创始人丹尼斯·波特称为“比特币权利”法案。

The Galaxy research report also anticipates the new US administration to be more inclined – predictably- towards a regime with many positive crypto regulations. According to the analyst writing the report, the bull run of crypto may continue for the next couple of years.

Galaxy 研究报告还预计，美国新政府将更倾向于（可以预见的）拥有许多积极的加密货币法规的政权。根据撰写报告的分析师的说法，加密货币的牛市可能会在未来几年持续下去。

He believed the bitcoin setup over the next two years appeared “unique and bullish.”

他认为未来两年的比特币格局显得“独特且看涨”。

However, according to Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, the journey for Bitcoin might not be super smooth. He believed:

然而，Galaxy 研究主管 Alex Thorn 表示，比特币的发展之路可能不会非常顺利。他相信：

“There could even be some twilight regulatory or law enforcement actions from the outgoing Biden administration that jitter markets.”

“即将卸任的拜登政府甚至可能会在黄昏时采取一些监管或执法行动，令市场感到不安。”

While analysts keep weighing factors that would influence the Bitcoin trajectory, there is one more technical aspect that we could look at to understand how far we're into the bull market. And that aspect relates to the phenomenon of Bitcoin halving.

尽管分析师不断权衡影响比特币走势的因素，但我们还可以从另一个技术方面来了解我们进入牛市的程度。这方面与比特币减半现象有关。

Bitcoin Halving and the Period After It

比特币减半及其之后的时期

In short, Bitcoin halving refers to an event that takes place every four years. The event reduces block rewards by 50% in the expectation that it will lower supply, increase scarcity, and eventually lead to an uptick in the asset's price. The last halving event occurred on April 19, 2024. It has been more than seven months since then, yet the price of Bitcoin continues to grow. However, there is a more specific way to calculate when Bitcoin will reach its peak since it has had its last halving.

简而言之，比特币减半是指每四年发生一次的事件。该事件将区块奖励减少 50%，预计会减少供应、增加稀缺性，并最终导致资产价格上涨。上一次减半事件发生在2024年4月19日，至今已过去7个多月，但比特币的价格仍在持续上涨。然而，有一种更具体的方法来计算比特币自上次减半以来何时达到峰值。

Reports suggest that in the past three halvings that happened in 2012, 2016, and 2020, there was an average price increase of 16% over the sixty days that followed the halving. However, there were exceptions on an individual level. For instance, in 2016, the halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.

报告显示，在过去 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年发生的三次减半中，减半后的 60 天内价格平均上涨了 16%。然而，在个人层面上也有例外。例如，2016 年减半导致接下来的 60 天内下跌 6%，尽管随后在 2017 年强劲反弹。

The analysis was done by 10X Research, and according to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10X, the halving was “associated with price increases due to reduced supply,” but investors would have to wait for a price peak, which typically came 500 days after a halving.

该分析由 10X Research 完成，根据 10X 研究主管 Markus Thielen 的说法，减半“与供应减少导致的价格上涨有关”，但投资者必须等待价格峰值，该峰值通常为 500减半后几天。

If we are to take these 500 days into account, which is close to one year, four months, and more, the price peak of Bitcoin after the latest halving should come any time during August 2025.

如果我们考虑到这 500 天，即接近一年四个月甚至更长的时间，那么最近一次减半后比特币的价格峰值应该会在 2025 年 8 月的任何时间到来。

While Bitcoin might be expected to peak during August 2025, analysts are also curious about the peaking of Altcoins.

虽然比特币预计将在 2025 年 8 月达到峰值，但分析师也对山寨币的峰值感到好奇。

How Many Days Post Bitcoin-Halving Do Altcoins Peak?

比特币减半后多少天山寨币会达到峰值？

However, the crypto world has many other components besides Bitcoin. There is a vast empire of altcoins. As we know, altcoins, or alternative coins, refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.

然而，除了比特币之外，加密世界还有许多其他组成部分。有一个庞大的山寨币帝国。众所周知，山寨币或替代币是指除比特币之外的所有加密货币。

Bitcoin is the most representative asset in the crypto kingdom. It is rather obvious that any persistent surge in its prices would have a ripple

比特币是加密王国中最具代表性的资产。很明显，其价格的任何持续上涨都会产生连锁反应