Cathie Wood Reaffirms Bullish Bitcoin Outlook, Predicts a Base Price of $650K by 2030

Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, has reaffirmed her optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, predicting a base price of $650,000 by 2030, with the possibility of reaching as high as $1.5 million under more favorable circumstances.

Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, remains bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a base price target of $650,000 by 2030, with the potential to reach as high as $1.5 million in a more favorable scenario.

A prominent advocate for Bitcoin since 2015, Wood highlighted two key factors driving its growth during an interview with CNBC on Friday.

She noted that increasing regulatory clarity is a significant development that could boost the cryptocurrency market, addressing concerns and paving the way for broader adoption.

Moreover, she pointed out the growing interest from institutional investors, who are coming to appreciate Bitcoin's unique attributes compared to traditional assets. This distinction, according to Wood, is strengthening Bitcoin’s standing as a valuable asset class and an essential tool for portfolio diversification.

Bitcoin outpaces historical averages in November

According to data from ARK Invest, Bitcoin's price on Nov. 13, 2024, was 1.33 times higher than its previous cycle peak of $67,589 on Nov. 8, 2021.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown during the 2022 bear market was 76.9%, a smaller decline compared to previous cycles, which saw drops of 86.3% in 2018, 85.1% in 2015 and 93.5% in 2011.

Based on @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics and analysis, the bull market in bitcoin is in good shape. After its halving in April, growth in the supply of bitcoin dropped to 0.9%, below the long term growth in the supply of gold for the first time! https://t.co/RHi21HKukV

Since the last cycle low, Bitcoin's price has increased 5.72 times, closely following the 5.18x and 5.93x growth observed at equivalent points in the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, respectively.

If Bitcoin continues to follow the average trajectory of these two cycles, its price could potentially increase 15.4 times to around $243,000 during the next year, approximately 880 days after the November 2021 cycle low.

By November 2024, Bitcoin’s price had risen 114.1% year-to-date, or 2.14 times, indicating strong growth compared to its average annual performance.

While this multiple exceeded the 2.06x average across all years sampled from 2011 to 2023 and the 2.04x average for halving years (2012, 2016, 2020), it fell short of some of the highest annual returns in prior cycles.

In 2024, Bitcoin experienced a notable overbought surge in the second quarter following the launch of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, a prolonged oversold period ensued due to increased supply from government seizures and repayments to Mt. Gox creditors.

As of November, Bitcoin’s performance multiple outpaced historical averages, and projections suggest that if it aligns with past trends, its price could range between $104,000 and $124,000 by the end of 2024, resulting in performance multiples of 2.48x to 2.94x.

With institutional adoption gaining traction and discussions around the U.S. government potentially adding Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, a strong close to 2024 is anticipated, setting the stage for sustained momentum into 2025.