Cathie Wood 重申看涨比特币前景，预计到 2030 年基本价格将达到 65 万美元

Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood重申了她对比特币的乐观前景，预计到2030年比特币的底价将达到65万美元，在更有利的情况下有可能达到150万美元。

Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, remains bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a base price target of $650,000 by 2030, with the potential to reach as high as $1.5 million in a more favorable scenario.

Ark Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 仍然看好比特币，预计到 2030 年比特币的基本目标价格为 65 万美元，在更有利的情况下有可能达到 150 万美元。

A prominent advocate for Bitcoin since 2015, Wood highlighted two key factors driving its growth during an interview with CNBC on Friday.

自 2015 年以来，伍德一直是比特币的杰出倡导者，他在周五接受 CNBC 采访时强调了推动比特币增长的两个关键因素。

She noted that increasing regulatory clarity is a significant development that could boost the cryptocurrency market, addressing concerns and paving the way for broader adoption.

她指出，监管透明度的提高是一项重大发展，可以促进加密货币市场的发展，解决人们的担忧并为更广泛的采用铺平道路。

Moreover, she pointed out the growing interest from institutional investors, who are coming to appreciate Bitcoin's unique attributes compared to traditional assets. This distinction, according to Wood, is strengthening Bitcoin’s standing as a valuable asset class and an essential tool for portfolio diversification.

此外，她指出机构投资者的兴趣日益浓厚，他们开始欣赏比特币与传统资产相比的独特属性。伍德表示，这种区别正在加强比特币作为有价值的资产类别和投资组合多元化的重要工具的地位。

Bitcoin outpaces historical averages in November

11 月比特币超过历史平均水平

According to data from ARK Invest, Bitcoin's price on Nov. 13, 2024, was 1.33 times higher than its previous cycle peak of $67,589 on Nov. 8, 2021.

根据 ARK Invest 的数据，2024 年 11 月 13 日的比特币价格比 2021 年 11 月 8 日的上一个周期峰值 67,589 美元高出 1.33 倍。

Interestingly, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown during the 2022 bear market was 76.9%, a smaller decline compared to previous cycles, which saw drops of 86.3% in 2018, 85.1% in 2015 and 93.5% in 2011.

有趣的是，比特币在 2022 年熊市期间的最大跌幅为 76.9%，与之前的周期相比，跌幅较小，2018 年跌幅为 86.3%，2015 年跌幅为 85.1%，2011 年跌幅为 93.5%。

Based on @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics and analysis, the bull market in bitcoin is in good shape. After its halving in April, growth in the supply of bitcoin dropped to 0.9%, below the long term growth in the supply of gold for the first time! https://t.co/RHi21HKukV

根据@dpuellARK的链上分析和分析，比特币牛市状况良好。 4月份减半后，比特币供应量增速降至0.9%，首次低于黄金供应量的长期增速！ https://t.co/RHi21HKukV

Since the last cycle low, Bitcoin's price has increased 5.72 times, closely following the 5.18x and 5.93x growth observed at equivalent points in the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, respectively.

自上一个周期低点以来，比特币的价格上涨了 5.72 倍，紧随 2015-2018 年和 2018-2022 年周期相应点观察到的 5.18 倍和 5.93 倍增长。

If Bitcoin continues to follow the average trajectory of these two cycles, its price could potentially increase 15.4 times to around $243,000 during the next year, approximately 880 days after the November 2021 cycle low.

如果比特币继续遵循这两个周期的平均轨迹，其价格可能会在明年上涨 15.4 倍，达到 243,000 美元左右，即 2021 年 11 月周期低点后约 880 天。

By November 2024, Bitcoin’s price had risen 114.1% year-to-date, or 2.14 times, indicating strong growth compared to its average annual performance.

到 2024 年 11 月，比特币的价格年初至今已上涨 114.1%，即 2.14 倍，与其年平均表现相比，增长强劲。

While this multiple exceeded the 2.06x average across all years sampled from 2011 to 2023 and the 2.04x average for halving years (2012, 2016, 2020), it fell short of some of the highest annual returns in prior cycles.

虽然这一倍数超过了 2011 年至 2023 年采样的所有年份的 2.06 倍平均值以及减半年份（2012 年、2016 年、2020 年）的 2.04 倍平均值，但仍低于之前周期中的一些最高年回报率。

In 2024, Bitcoin experienced a notable overbought surge in the second quarter following the launch of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, a prolonged oversold period ensued due to increased supply from government seizures and repayments to Mt. Gox creditors.

2024 年，在美国现货比特币 ETF 推出后，比特币在第二季度经历了显着的超买飙升。然而，由于政府扣押和偿还 Mt. Gox 债权人的供应增加，导致超卖期延长。

As of November, Bitcoin’s performance multiple outpaced historical averages, and projections suggest that if it aligns with past trends, its price could range between $104,000 and $124,000 by the end of 2024, resulting in performance multiples of 2.48x to 2.94x.

截至 11 月，比特币的表现倍数超过了历史平均水平，预测表明，如果它与过去的趋势保持一致，到 2024 年底，其价格可能会在 104,000 美元至 124,000 美元之间，从而导致表现倍数达到 2.48 倍至 2.94 倍。

With institutional adoption gaining traction and discussions around the U.S. government potentially adding Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, a strong close to 2024 is anticipated, setting the stage for sustained momentum into 2025.

随着机构采用越来越受欢迎，以及美国政府可能将比特币纳入其战略储备的讨论，预计到 2024 年比特币将表现强劲，为 2025 年的持续势头奠定基础。