Cathie Wood 重申看漲比特幣前景，預計到 2030 年基本價格將達到 65 萬美元

Ark Invest執行長Cathie Wood重申了她對比特幣的樂觀前景，預計到2030年比特幣的底價將達到65萬美元，在更有利的情況下有可能達到150萬美元。

Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, remains bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a base price target of $650,000 by 2030, with the potential to reach as high as $1.5 million in a more favorable scenario.

Ark Invest 執行長 Cathie Wood 仍然看好比特幣，預計到 2030 年比特幣的基本目標價格為 65 萬美元，在更有利的情況下有可能達到 150 萬美元。

A prominent advocate for Bitcoin since 2015, Wood highlighted two key factors driving its growth during an interview with CNBC on Friday.

自 2015 年以來，伍德一直是比特幣的傑出倡導者，他在周五接受 CNBC 採訪時強調了推動比特幣成長的兩個關鍵因素。

She noted that increasing regulatory clarity is a significant development that could boost the cryptocurrency market, addressing concerns and paving the way for broader adoption.

她指出，監管透明度的提高是一項重大發展，可以促進加密貨幣市場的發展，解決人們的擔憂並為更廣泛的採用鋪平道路。

Moreover, she pointed out the growing interest from institutional investors, who are coming to appreciate Bitcoin's unique attributes compared to traditional assets. This distinction, according to Wood, is strengthening Bitcoin’s standing as a valuable asset class and an essential tool for portfolio diversification.

此外，她指出機構投資者的興趣日益濃厚，他們開始欣賞比特幣與傳統資產相比的獨特屬性。伍德表示，這種差異正在加強比特幣作為有價值的資產類別和投資組合多元化的重要工具的地位。

Bitcoin outpaces historical averages in November

11 月比特幣超過歷史平均水平

According to data from ARK Invest, Bitcoin's price on Nov. 13, 2024, was 1.33 times higher than its previous cycle peak of $67,589 on Nov. 8, 2021.

根據 ARK Invest 的數據，2024 年 11 月 13 日的比特幣價格比 2021 年 11 月 8 日的上一個週期峰值 67,589 美元高出 1.33 倍。

Interestingly, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown during the 2022 bear market was 76.9%, a smaller decline compared to previous cycles, which saw drops of 86.3% in 2018, 85.1% in 2015 and 93.5% in 2011.

有趣的是，比特幣在 2022 年熊市期間的最大跌幅為 76.9%，與先前的週期相比，跌幅較小，2018 年跌幅為 86.3%，2015 年跌幅為 85.1%，2011 年跌幅為 93.5%。

Based on @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics and analysis, the bull market in bitcoin is in good shape. After its halving in April, growth in the supply of bitcoin dropped to 0.9%, below the long term growth in the supply of gold for the first time! https://t.co/RHi21HKukV

根據@dpuellARK的鏈上分析和分析，比特幣牛市狀況良好。 4月減半後，比特幣供應量成長率降至0.9%，首次低於黃金供應的長期成長！ https://t.co/RHi21HKukV

Since the last cycle low, Bitcoin's price has increased 5.72 times, closely following the 5.18x and 5.93x growth observed at equivalent points in the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, respectively.

自上一個週期低點以來，比特幣的價格上漲了 5.72 倍，緊隨 2015-2018 年和 2018-2022 年周期相應點觀察到的 5.18 倍和 5.93 倍增長。

If Bitcoin continues to follow the average trajectory of these two cycles, its price could potentially increase 15.4 times to around $243,000 during the next year, approximately 880 days after the November 2021 cycle low.

如果比特幣繼續遵循這兩個週期的平均軌跡，其價格可能會在明年上漲 15.4 倍，達到 243,000 美元左右，即 2021 年 11 月週期低點後約 880 天。

By November 2024, Bitcoin’s price had risen 114.1% year-to-date, or 2.14 times, indicating strong growth compared to its average annual performance.

到 2024 年 11 月，比特幣的價格年初至今已上漲 114.1%，即 2.14 倍，與其年平均表現相比，增長強勁。

While this multiple exceeded the 2.06x average across all years sampled from 2011 to 2023 and the 2.04x average for halving years (2012, 2016, 2020), it fell short of some of the highest annual returns in prior cycles.

雖然這一倍數超過了2011 年至2023 年採樣的所有年份的2.06 倍平均值以及減半年份（2012 年、2016 年、2020 年）的2.04 倍平均值，但仍低於之前週期中的一些最高年回報率。

In 2024, Bitcoin experienced a notable overbought surge in the second quarter following the launch of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, a prolonged oversold period ensued due to increased supply from government seizures and repayments to Mt. Gox creditors.

2024 年，在美國現貨比特幣 ETF 推出後，比特幣在第二季度經歷了顯著的超買激增。然而，由於政府扣押和償還 Mt. Gox 債權人的供應增加，導致超賣期延長。

As of November, Bitcoin’s performance multiple outpaced historical averages, and projections suggest that if it aligns with past trends, its price could range between $104,000 and $124,000 by the end of 2024, resulting in performance multiples of 2.48x to 2.94x.

截至11 月，比特幣的表現倍數超過了歷史平均水平，並且預測表明，如果它與過去的趨勢保持一致，到2024 年底，其價格可能會在104,000 美元至124,000 美元之間，從而導致表現倍數達到2.48 倍至2.94 倍。

With institutional adoption gaining traction and discussions around the U.S. government potentially adding Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, a strong close to 2024 is anticipated, setting the stage for sustained momentum into 2025.

隨著機構採用越來越受歡迎，以及美國政府可能將比特幣納入其戰略儲備的討論，預計到 2024 年比特幣將表現強勁，為 2025 年的持續勢頭奠定基礎。