Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat: Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)

Fears that quantum computing could lead to an all-you-can-eat buffet for crypto criminals aren't new, but critics of the theory argue it won't be an issue

Microsoft’s new quantum computing chip could push up the timeline to make Bitcoin (BTC) quantum-resistant, according to crypto exchange River.

As reported by Cointelegraph, Microsoft unveiled its quantum computing (QC) chip Majorana 1 on Feb. 19. The launch comes as part of a broader effort to advance quantum technology, with several companies, including Google, pursuing the development of powerful quantum chips. Google unveiled its chip Willow in December.

In a Feb. 20 post on X, River highlighted the potential impact of Microsoft’s new chip on Bitcoin’s quantum resistance. While noting that a crypto-threatening quantum computing breakthrough is still several years away, the platform suggested that the new chip may have shortened that timeline.

“The Majorana 1 chip is far from that scale now, but could reach the 1 million mark by 2027-2029 [...] When ran for several days to weeks, a 1-million qubit QC could potentially crack Bitcoin addresses via a long-range attack,” it said.

According to River, such an event would put pressure on exchanges and protocols to integrate quantum-resistant measures as quickly as possible. The platform noted that while Bitcoin Core developers have discussed adding quantum resistance to the network, no concrete steps have been taken yet.

“This breakthrough shortens the timeline to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant. Even if it’s a decade away, addressing vulnerabilities early is crucial,” the platform said.

Quantum threat is overblown, say critics

However, critics of the notion that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to crypto argue that it won’t be an issue in the future.

One argument is that a cryptography-cracking quantum computer would likely be aimed at banking giants and other traditional targets well before Bitcoin.

In total, data platform Statista estimates all the world’s banks held more than $188 trillion dollars in assets as of 2023. Crypto market capitalization is currently just a fraction of that at $3.2 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Another argument is that advancements in Quantum computing could used just as easily to strengthen the Bitcoin network.

Adam Back, a notable cryptographer in the industry, says post-quantum is still several decades out, and he expects post-quantum signature research will produce well-reviewed, more compact signatures, which Bitcoin can add to the network.

Some suggest it could even be a hundred years before quantum computing even becomes a threat.

Bitcoin advocate Adrian Morris said in a Feb. 20 post to X that quantum computing is “barely a viable technology,” with “major issues” around thermodynamics, memory and persisting calculations.

Meanwhile, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, Preston Pysh, said the community is already working on a solution, with BIP-360 as “the main one being proposed, which he says “could be rolled out via a soft fork.”

BIP-360 proposes transitioning Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant structure by replacing vulnerable signature methods.

Related: Could quantum computing threaten Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million Bitcoin?

Seemingly in response, Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, agreed that a quantum threat to Bitcoin is not a near-term problem, though he said the argument that the entire banking system could break before Bitcoin is flawed.

Leishman argued that centralized financial institutions implement many layers of security beyond just using public key cryptography, such as symmetric password authentication and manual controls around large movements of funds.

Meanwhile, a Bitcoin quantum attack would only need the attacker to know the Bitcoin public key.