比特幣與量子計算機威脅：時間軸和解決方案（2025-2035）

擔心量子計算可能會導致對加密罪犯的全部自助餐，這並不是什麼新鮮事物，但對理論的批評者認為這不是一個問題

Microsoft’s new quantum computing chip could push up the timeline to make Bitcoin (BTC) quantum-resistant, according to crypto exchange River.

根據加密貨幣交換河的說法，微軟的新量子計算芯片可以推高時間表，以製造比特幣（BTC）抗量子量。

As reported by Cointelegraph, Microsoft unveiled its quantum computing (QC) chip Majorana 1 on Feb. 19. The launch comes as part of a broader effort to advance quantum technology, with several companies, including Google, pursuing the development of powerful quantum chips. Google unveiled its chip Willow in December.

正如Cointelegraph報導的那樣，微軟於2月19日推出了其量子計算（QC）芯片Majorana 1。發射是在推進量子技術的更廣泛努力的一部分，其中包括Google在內的幾家公司，包括Google，追求強大的量子芯片的開發。 Google在12月推出了其芯片柳樹。

In a Feb. 20 post on X, River highlighted the potential impact of Microsoft’s new chip on Bitcoin’s quantum resistance. While noting that a crypto-threatening quantum computing breakthrough is still several years away, the platform suggested that the new chip may have shortened that timeline.

在2月20日在X上的文章中，River強調了微軟新芯片對比特幣量子阻力的潛在影響。雖然指出威脅加密的量子計算突破仍在數年之遙，但該平台表明，新芯片可能縮短了該時間表。

“The Majorana 1 chip is far from that scale now, but could reach the 1 million mark by 2027-2029 [...] When ran for several days to weeks, a 1-million qubit QC could potentially crack Bitcoin addresses via a long-range attack,” it said.

“ Majoraana 1芯片現在遠非該規模，但是到2027-2029 [...]可以達到100萬個標記，當時運行了幾天到幾週，100萬個QC QC可能會通過長時間破解比特幣地址- 距離攻擊，”它說。

According to River, such an event would put pressure on exchanges and protocols to integrate quantum-resistant measures as quickly as possible. The platform noted that while Bitcoin Core developers have discussed adding quantum resistance to the network, no concrete steps have been taken yet.

根據河流的說法，這樣的事件將對交流和協議施加壓力，以盡快彌補抗量子的措施。該平台指出，儘管比特幣核心開發人員已經討論了在網絡上添加量子阻力，但尚未採取具體步驟。

“This breakthrough shortens the timeline to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant. Even if it’s a decade away, addressing vulnerabilities early is crucial,” the platform said.

“這一突破可以縮短時間表，以使比特幣量子抗性。即使距離十年之遙，早期解決漏洞也至關重要。”該平台說。

Quantum threat is overblown, say critics

批評家說，量子威脅誇大了

However, critics of the notion that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to crypto argue that it won’t be an issue in the future.

但是，對量子計算的觀念的批評者對加密貨幣構成了迫在眉睫的威脅，認為這將來不會是一個問題。

One argument is that a cryptography-cracking quantum computer would likely be aimed at banking giants and other traditional targets well before Bitcoin.

一個論點是，在比特幣之前，一台加密裂紋的量子計算機很可能針對銀行巨頭和其他傳統目標。

In total, data platform Statista estimates all the world’s banks held more than $188 trillion dollars in assets as of 2023. Crypto market capitalization is currently just a fraction of that at $3.2 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

截至2023年，數據平台Statista總共估計，全球所有銀行的資產持有超過1.88億美元的資產。根據CoinMarketCap的數據，加密市值目前僅佔3.2萬億美元的一小部分。

Another argument is that advancements in Quantum computing could used just as easily to strengthen the Bitcoin network.

另一個論點是，量子計算中的進步可以同樣容易地使用比特幣網絡。

Adam Back, a notable cryptographer in the industry, says post-quantum is still several decades out, and he expects post-quantum signature research will produce well-reviewed, more compact signatures, which Bitcoin can add to the network.

亞當（Adam Back）是該行業中著名的密碼學家亞當（Adam Back）表示，Quantum仍然是幾十年了，他希望Quantum簽名後的研究將產生經過精心瀏覽，更緊湊的簽名，比特幣可以添加到網絡中。

Some suggest it could even be a hundred years before quantum computing even becomes a threat.

有些人認為，量子計算甚至可能是一百年，甚至成為威脅。

Bitcoin advocate Adrian Morris said in a Feb. 20 post to X that quantum computing is “barely a viable technology,” with “major issues” around thermodynamics, memory and persisting calculations.

比特幣倡導者阿德里安·莫里斯（Adrian Morris）在2月20日至X的文章中說，量子計算是“幾乎不可行的技術”，圍繞熱力學，記憶和持續計算的“重大問題”。

Meanwhile, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, Preston Pysh, said the community is already working on a solution, with BIP-360 as “the main one being proposed, which he says “could be rolled out via a soft fork.”

同時，投資者播客網絡的聯合創始人普雷斯頓·皮森（Preston Pysh）表示，該社區已經在解決解決方案，而BIP-360是“提議的主要郵件，他說可以通過軟叉推出。 ”

BIP-360 proposes transitioning Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant structure by replacing vulnerable signature methods.

BIP-360通過替換易受攻擊的簽名方法，提出將比特幣轉變為抗量子結構。

Related: Could quantum computing threaten Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million Bitcoin?

相關：量子計算是否威脅著中田的100萬比特幣？

Seemingly in response, Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, agreed that a quantum threat to Bitcoin is not a near-term problem, though he said the argument that the entire banking system could break before Bitcoin is flawed.

似乎是為了回應，River的首席執行官亞歷山大·利甚曼（Alexander Leishman）同意，對比特幣的量子威脅並不是一個近期的問題，儘管他說整個銀行體​​係可能會在比特幣有缺陷之前破裂的論點。

Leishman argued that centralized financial institutions implement many layers of security beyond just using public key cryptography, such as symmetric password authentication and manual controls around large movements of funds.

利甚曼（Leishman）認為，集中的金融機構不僅使用公共密鑰密碼學，例如對稱密碼身份驗證和圍繞大量資金移動的手動控制，因此實施了許多安全性。

Meanwhile, a Bitcoin quantum attack would only need the attacker to know the Bitcoin public key.

同時，比特幣量子攻擊只需要攻擊者知道比特幣公鑰。