比特币与量子计算机威胁：时间轴和解决方案（2025-2035）

担心量子计算可能会导致对加密罪犯的全部自助餐，这并不是什么新鲜事物，但对理论的批评者认为这不是一个问题

Microsoft’s new quantum computing chip could push up the timeline to make Bitcoin (BTC) quantum-resistant, according to crypto exchange River.

根据加密货币交换河的说法，微软的新量子计算芯片可以推高时间表，以制造比特币（BTC）抗量子量。

As reported by Cointelegraph, Microsoft unveiled its quantum computing (QC) chip Majorana 1 on Feb. 19. The launch comes as part of a broader effort to advance quantum technology, with several companies, including Google, pursuing the development of powerful quantum chips. Google unveiled its chip Willow in December.

正如Cointelegraph报道的那样，微软于2月19日推出了其量子计算（QC）芯片Majorana 1。发射是在推进量子技术的更广泛努力的一部分，其中包括Google在内的几家公司，包括Google，追求强大的量子芯片的开发。 Google在12月推出了其芯片柳树。

In a Feb. 20 post on X, River highlighted the potential impact of Microsoft’s new chip on Bitcoin’s quantum resistance. While noting that a crypto-threatening quantum computing breakthrough is still several years away, the platform suggested that the new chip may have shortened that timeline.

在2月20日在X上的文章中，River强调了微软新芯片对比特币量子阻力的潜在影响。虽然指出威胁加密的量子计算突破仍在数年之遥，但该平台表明，新芯片可能缩短了该时间表。

“The Majorana 1 chip is far from that scale now, but could reach the 1 million mark by 2027-2029 [...] When ran for several days to weeks, a 1-million qubit QC could potentially crack Bitcoin addresses via a long-range attack,” it said.

“ Majoraana 1芯片现在远非该规模，但是到2027-2029 [...]可以达到100万个标记，当时运行了几天到几周，100万个QC QC可能会通过长时间破解比特币地址 - 距离攻击，”它说。

According to River, such an event would put pressure on exchanges and protocols to integrate quantum-resistant measures as quickly as possible. The platform noted that while Bitcoin Core developers have discussed adding quantum resistance to the network, no concrete steps have been taken yet.

根据河流的说法，这样的事件将对交流和协议施加压力，以尽快弥补抗量子的措施。该平台指出，尽管比特币核心开发人员已经讨论了在网络上添加量子阻力，但尚未采取具体步骤。

“This breakthrough shortens the timeline to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant. Even if it’s a decade away, addressing vulnerabilities early is crucial,” the platform said.

“这一突破可以缩短时间表，以使比特币量子抗性。即使距离十年之遥，早期解决漏洞也至关重要。”该平台说。

Quantum threat is overblown, say critics

批评家说，量子威胁夸大了

However, critics of the notion that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to crypto argue that it won’t be an issue in the future.

但是，对量子计算的观念的批评者对加密货币构成了迫在眉睫的威胁，认为这将来不会是一个问题。

One argument is that a cryptography-cracking quantum computer would likely be aimed at banking giants and other traditional targets well before Bitcoin.

一个论点是，在比特币之前，一台加密裂纹的量子计算机很可能针对银行巨头和其他传统目标。

In total, data platform Statista estimates all the world’s banks held more than $188 trillion dollars in assets as of 2023. Crypto market capitalization is currently just a fraction of that at $3.2 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

截至2023年，数据平台Statista总共估计，全球所有银行的资产持有超过1.88亿美元的资产。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，加密市值目前仅占3.2万亿美元的一小部分。

Another argument is that advancements in Quantum computing could used just as easily to strengthen the Bitcoin network.

另一个论点是，量子计算中的进步可以同样容易地使用比特币网络。

Adam Back, a notable cryptographer in the industry, says post-quantum is still several decades out, and he expects post-quantum signature research will produce well-reviewed, more compact signatures, which Bitcoin can add to the network.

亚当（Adam Back）是该行业中著名的密码学家亚当（Adam Back）表示，Quantum仍然是几十年了，他希望Quantum签名后的研究将产生经过精心浏览，更紧凑的签名，比特币可以添加到网络中。

Some suggest it could even be a hundred years before quantum computing even becomes a threat.

有些人认为，量子计算甚至可能是一百年，甚至成为威胁。

Bitcoin advocate Adrian Morris said in a Feb. 20 post to X that quantum computing is “barely a viable technology,” with “major issues” around thermodynamics, memory and persisting calculations.

比特币倡导者阿德里安·莫里斯（Adrian Morris）在2月20日至X的文章中说，量子计算是“几乎不可行的技术”，围绕热力学，记忆和持续计算的“重大问题”。

Meanwhile, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, Preston Pysh, said the community is already working on a solution, with BIP-360 as “the main one being proposed, which he says “could be rolled out via a soft fork.”

同时，投资者播客网络的联合创始人普雷斯顿·皮森（Preston Pysh）表示，该社区已经在解决解决方案，而BIP-360是“提议的主要邮件，他说可以通过软叉推出。”

BIP-360 proposes transitioning Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant structure by replacing vulnerable signature methods.

BIP-360通过替换易受攻击的签名方法，提出将比特币转变为抗量子结构。

Related: Could quantum computing threaten Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million Bitcoin?

相关：量子计算是否威胁着中田的100万比特币？

Seemingly in response, Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, agreed that a quantum threat to Bitcoin is not a near-term problem, though he said the argument that the entire banking system could break before Bitcoin is flawed.

似乎是为了回应，River的首席执行官亚历山大·利什曼（Alexander Leishman）同意，对比特币的量子威胁并不是一个近期的问题，尽管他说整个银行体​​系可能会在比特币有缺陷之前破裂的论点。

Leishman argued that centralized financial institutions implement many layers of security beyond just using public key cryptography, such as symmetric password authentication and manual controls around large movements of funds.

利什曼（Leishman）认为，集中的金融机构不仅使用公共密钥密码学，例如对称密码身份验证和围绕大量资金移动的手动控制，因此实施了许多安全性。

Meanwhile, a Bitcoin quantum attack would only need the attacker to know the Bitcoin public key.

同时，比特币量子攻击只需要攻击者知道比特币公钥。