XRP的市值乘数效应可能会使其价格飙升至33美元

加密货币市场长期以来一直是大胆预测的主题，XRP也不例外。

The cryptocurrency market has long been the subject of bold predictions, and XRP is no exception. Recently, a well-known market analyst, Zach Rector, has presented a compelling argument for why XRP could reach double-digit prices, challenging the widely accepted “market cap myth.” With the possibility of XRP ETF approvals and the coin’s unique market cap multiplier effect, investors are beginning to consider a future where XRP reaches as high as $33.

加密货币市场长期以来一直是大胆预测的主题，XRP也不例外。最近，一位著名的市场分析师Zach Rector提出了一个令人信服的论点，说明了XRP为什么可以达到两位数的价格，从而挑战了被广泛接受的“市值神话”。有了XRP ETF批准和硬币独特的市值乘数效应的可能性，投资者开始考虑XRP高达33美元的未来。

From November 2024 to January 2025, XRP experienced a significant rally, breaking past crucial psychological levels at $1, $2, and $3. This resurgence sparked bullish sentiment among investors, with some analysts projecting XRP to soar to $27 or even $33. However, as of March 2025, the cryptocurrency has seen a slight pullback below $3 amid broader market corrections. Despite this temporary setback, many remain optimistic about XRP’s potential, particularly given the impact of institutional investment and ETF developments.

从2024年11月到2025年1月，XRP经历了重大的集会，过去的至关重要的心理水平为$ 1，2美元和3美元。这种复兴引发了投资者的看涨情绪，一些分析师预测XRP飙升至27美元甚至33美元。但是，截至2025年3月，在更广泛的市场校正中，加密货币略低于3美元。尽管存在这种暂时的挫折，但许多人仍然对XRP的潜力保持乐观，尤其是考虑到机构投资和ETF发展的影响。

One of the biggest arguments against XRP achieving a double-digit price is the concern over its market cap. Critics argue that for XRP to reach $27 or $33, trillions of dollars would need to flow into the asset, making such a price target seemingly impossible.

反对XRP实现两位数价格的最大争论之一是对其市值的关注。评论家认为，要使XRP达到27美元或33美元，数万亿美元需要流入资产，这使得如此目标的目标似乎不可能。

However, Rector has taken to X to challenge this assumption, highlighting a key factor that most overlook—the market cap multiplier effect.

但是，校长已竭尽全力挑战这一假设，强调了最忽视的关键因素，即市值乘数效应。

Rector explains that market cap growth in the crypto space isn’t a simple equation of price times circulating supply. Instead, small amounts of capital inflow can lead to disproportionately large increases in a coin’s market cap due to trading liquidity, speculative buying, and automated market-making mechanisms.

Rector解释说，加密货币领域的市值增长并不是价格循环供应的简单方程。取而代之的是，由于交易流动性，投机性购买和自动化的营销机制，少量资本流入可能导致硬币市值的不成比例增加。

To illustrate this, Rector analyzed a four-hour window in which XRP saw $80 million in net inflows. During this short period, XRP’s market cap expanded by $17 billion, reflecting a 212x multiplier. This means that for every $1 invested in XRP, the overall market cap increased by $212.

为了说明这一点，Rector分析了一个四小时的窗口，其中XRP看到了8000万美元的净流入。在此短期内，XRP的市值增加了170亿美元，反映了212X乘数。这意味着，在XRP上投资的1美元中，总体市值增加了212美元。

Conversely, when the SEC filed an appeal brief against Ripple on January 15, XRP’s price dropped from $3.20 to below $3. This decline led to a $15 billion reduction in market cap, but only $55 million in outflows, demonstrating a 279x multiplier.

相反，当SEC在1月15日对Ripple提出上诉摘要时，XRP的价格从3.20美元下降到3美元以下。这种下降导致市值减少了150亿美元，但只有5500万美元的外流，表现为279倍的乘数。

Rector has observed even higher multipliers in the past, with some exceeding 589x and, in extreme cases, reaching into the thousands. This data suggests that XRP’s market valuation is highly sensitive to inflows, allowing it to scale rapidly without requiring massive capital injections.

校长过去曾观察到更高的乘数，其中一些超过589倍，在极端情况下，乘以数千人。该数据表明，XRP的市场估值对流入非常敏感，可以迅速扩展，而无需大量的资本注射。

One of the biggest potential catalysts for XRP’s future price growth is the anticipated approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

XRP未来价格增长的最大潜在催化剂之一是批准交易所交易资金（ETF）。

JP Morgan recently released a report estimating that XRP ETFs could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows within their first year. Given XRP’s market cap multiplier, this level of institutional investment could have a profound effect on its valuation.

JP Morgan最近发布了一份报告，估计XRP ETF可以在第一年内吸引40亿至80亿美元的流入。鉴于XRP的市值乘数，这一水平的机构投资可能会对其估值产生深远的影响。

Currently, multiple asset managers, including Cboe, Bitwise, 21Shares, and WisdomTree, have filed applications with the SEC to launch XRP ETFs. Grayscale has also applied to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF. If approved, these investment vehicles would open the floodgates for institutional capital to enter the XRP market.

目前，包括CBOE，BITWIES，21Shares和WisdomTree在内的多个资产经理已向SEC提交了申请，以启动XRP ETF。 Grayscale还申请将其XRP信托转换为ETF。如果获得批准，这些投资工具将为机构资本进入XRP市场开放。

Using JP Morgan’s conservative estimate of an $8 billion inflow, and applying the 212x market cap multiplier, we can calculate that XRP's market cap could increase by approximately $1.7 trillion. Adding this to its current estimated market cap of $200 billion, we arrive at a total valuation of around $1.9 trillion.

使用JP Morgan的保守估计值80亿美元的流入以及应用212X市值乘数，我们可以计算出XRP的市值可能会增加约1.7万亿美元。将其加到目前的2000亿美元市值中，我们的总估值约为1.9万亿美元。

Finally, considering the circulating supply of 58 billion XRP, a market cap of $1.9 trillion would push the price to approximately $33 per token.

最后，考虑到580亿XRP的循环供应，1.9万亿美元的市值将使价格提高到每个令牌约33美元。

Skeptics might argue that for XRP to reach the trillion-dollar valuation range, it would need trillions in direct capital inflows. However, as Rector's analysis shows, the market cap multiplier effect allows for significant price changes with relatively small capital flows.

怀疑论者可能会争辩说，要使XRP达到万亿美元的估值范围，它将需要数万亿美元的直接资本流入。但是，正如校长的分析所表明的那样，市值乘数效应允许使用相对较小的资本流量进行重大的价格变化。

Moreover, with ETFs serving as an entry point for institutional investors, we could see rapid adoption among hedge funds, wealth managers, and other major players, further driving up demand and reinforcing XRP's market expansion.

此外，随着ETF是机构投资者的切入点，我们可以看到对冲基金，财富管理人员和其他主要参与者之间的迅速采用，进一步提高了需求并加强了XRP的市场扩张。

While past price movements were largely driven by retail traders and speculative hype, the future of XRP seems to be unfolding with a greater emphasis on institutional activity and the potential for ETF approvals.

尽管过去的价格变动主要是由零售商人和投机性炒作驱动的，但XRP的未来似乎正在展开，更加重视机构活动和ETF批准的潜力。

With these factors in mind, and given the extreme market cap multiplier effect that we've observed in the past, we could be setting the stage for one of XRP’s biggest bull runs yet.

考虑到这些因素，并且考虑到过去观察到的极端下限乘数效应，我们可以为XRP最大的公牛跑步之一奠定基础。

Additionally, the Ripple ecosystem continues to expand, with increased adoption of on-demand liquidity (ODL), partnerships with global banks, and advancements in cross-border payments. These fundamental developments further reinforce XRP’s long-term value proposition,

此外，随着按需流动性（ODL）的采用增加，与全球银行的合作伙伴关系以及跨境支付的进步，波纹生态系统不断扩大。这些基本发展进一步加强了XRP的长期价值主张，