XRP的市值乘數效應可能會使其價格飆升至33美元

加密貨幣市場長期以來一直是大膽預測的主題，XRP也不例外。

The cryptocurrency market has long been the subject of bold predictions, and XRP is no exception. Recently, a well-known market analyst, Zach Rector, has presented a compelling argument for why XRP could reach double-digit prices, challenging the widely accepted “market cap myth.” With the possibility of XRP ETF approvals and the coin’s unique market cap multiplier effect, investors are beginning to consider a future where XRP reaches as high as $33.

加密貨幣市場長期以來一直是大膽預測的主題，XRP也不例外。最近，一位著名的市場分析師Zach Rector提出了一個令人信服的論點，說明了XRP為什麼可以達到兩位數的價格，從而挑戰了被廣泛接受的“市值神話”。有了XRP ETF批准和硬幣獨特的市值乘數效應的可能性，投資者開始考慮XRP高達33美元的未來。

From November 2024 to January 2025, XRP experienced a significant rally, breaking past crucial psychological levels at $1, $2, and $3. This resurgence sparked bullish sentiment among investors, with some analysts projecting XRP to soar to $27 or even $33. However, as of March 2025, the cryptocurrency has seen a slight pullback below $3 amid broader market corrections. Despite this temporary setback, many remain optimistic about XRP’s potential, particularly given the impact of institutional investment and ETF developments.

從2024年11月到2025年1月，XRP經歷了重大的集會，過去的至關重要的心理水平為$ 1，2美元和3美元。這種複興引發了投資者的看漲情緒，一些分析師預測XRP飆升至27美元甚至33美元。但是，截至2025年3月，在更廣泛的市場校正中，加密貨幣略低於3美元。儘管存在這種暫時的挫折，但許多人仍然對XRP的潛力保持樂觀，尤其是考慮到機構投資和ETF發展的影響。

One of the biggest arguments against XRP achieving a double-digit price is the concern over its market cap. Critics argue that for XRP to reach $27 or $33, trillions of dollars would need to flow into the asset, making such a price target seemingly impossible.

反對XRP實現兩位數價格的最大爭論之一是對其市值的關注。評論家認為，要使XRP達到27美元或33美元，數万億美元需要流入資產，這使得如此目標的目標似乎不可能。

However, Rector has taken to X to challenge this assumption, highlighting a key factor that most overlook—the market cap multiplier effect.

但是，校長已竭盡全力挑戰這一假設，強調了最忽視的關鍵因素，即市值乘數效應。

Rector explains that market cap growth in the crypto space isn’t a simple equation of price times circulating supply. Instead, small amounts of capital inflow can lead to disproportionately large increases in a coin’s market cap due to trading liquidity, speculative buying, and automated market-making mechanisms.

Rector解釋說，加密貨幣領域的市值增長並不是價格循環供應的簡單方程。取而代之的是，由於交易流動性，投機性購買和自動化的營銷機制，少量資本流入可能導致硬幣市值的不成比例增加。

To illustrate this, Rector analyzed a four-hour window in which XRP saw $80 million in net inflows. During this short period, XRP’s market cap expanded by $17 billion, reflecting a 212x multiplier. This means that for every $1 invested in XRP, the overall market cap increased by $212.

為了說明這一點，Rector分析了一個四小時的窗口，其中XRP看到了8000萬美元的淨流入。在此短期內，XRP的市值增加了170億美元，反映了212X乘數。這意味著，在XRP上投資的1美元中，總體市值增加了212美元。

Conversely, when the SEC filed an appeal brief against Ripple on January 15, XRP’s price dropped from $3.20 to below $3. This decline led to a $15 billion reduction in market cap, but only $55 million in outflows, demonstrating a 279x multiplier.

相反，當SEC在1月15日對Ripple提出上訴摘要時，XRP的價格從3.20美元下降到3美元以下。這種下降導致市值減少了150億美元，但只有5500萬美元的外流，表現為279倍的乘數。

Rector has observed even higher multipliers in the past, with some exceeding 589x and, in extreme cases, reaching into the thousands. This data suggests that XRP’s market valuation is highly sensitive to inflows, allowing it to scale rapidly without requiring massive capital injections.

校長過去曾觀察到更高的乘數，其中一些超過589倍，在極端情況下，乘以數千人。該數據表明，XRP的市場估值對流入非常敏感，可以迅速擴展，而無需大量的資本注射。

One of the biggest potential catalysts for XRP’s future price growth is the anticipated approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

XRP未來價格增長的最大潛在催化劑之一是批准交易所交易資金（ETF）。

JP Morgan recently released a report estimating that XRP ETFs could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows within their first year. Given XRP’s market cap multiplier, this level of institutional investment could have a profound effect on its valuation.

JP Morgan最近發布了一份報告，估計XRP ETF可以在第一年內吸引40億至80億美元的流入。鑑於XRP的市值乘數，這一水平的機構投資可能會對其估值產生深遠的影響。

Currently, multiple asset managers, including Cboe, Bitwise, 21Shares, and WisdomTree, have filed applications with the SEC to launch XRP ETFs. Grayscale has also applied to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF. If approved, these investment vehicles would open the floodgates for institutional capital to enter the XRP market.

目前，包括CBOE，BITWIES，21Shares和WisdomTree在內的多個資產經理已向SEC提交了申請，以啟動XRP ETF。 Grayscale還申請將其XRP信託轉換為ETF。如果獲得批准，這些投資工具將為機構資本進入XRP市場開放。

Using JP Morgan’s conservative estimate of an $8 billion inflow, and applying the 212x market cap multiplier, we can calculate that XRP's market cap could increase by approximately $1.7 trillion. Adding this to its current estimated market cap of $200 billion, we arrive at a total valuation of around $1.9 trillion.

使用JP Morgan的保守估計值80億美元的流入以及應用212X市值乘數，我們可以計算出XRP的市值可能會增加約1.7萬億美元。將其加到目前的2000億美元市值中，我們的總估值約為1.9萬億美元。

Finally, considering the circulating supply of 58 billion XRP, a market cap of $1.9 trillion would push the price to approximately $33 per token.

最後，考慮到580億XRP的循環供應，1.9萬億美元的市值將使價格提高到每個令牌約33美元。

Skeptics might argue that for XRP to reach the trillion-dollar valuation range, it would need trillions in direct capital inflows. However, as Rector's analysis shows, the market cap multiplier effect allows for significant price changes with relatively small capital flows.

懷疑論者可能會爭辯說，要使XRP達到萬億美元的估值範圍，它將需要數万億美元的直接資本流入。但是，正如校長的分析所表明的那樣，市值乘數效應允許使用相對較小的資本流量進行重大的價格變化。

Moreover, with ETFs serving as an entry point for institutional investors, we could see rapid adoption among hedge funds, wealth managers, and other major players, further driving up demand and reinforcing XRP's market expansion.

此外，隨著ETF是機構投資者的切入點，我們可以看到對沖基金，財富管理人員和其他主要參與者之間的迅速採用，進一步提高了需求並加強了XRP的市場擴張。

While past price movements were largely driven by retail traders and speculative hype, the future of XRP seems to be unfolding with a greater emphasis on institutional activity and the potential for ETF approvals.

儘管過去的價格變動主要是由零售商人和投機性炒作驅動的，但XRP的未來似乎正在展開，更加重視機構活動和ETF批准的潛力。

With these factors in mind, and given the extreme market cap multiplier effect that we've observed in the past, we could be setting the stage for one of XRP’s biggest bull runs yet.

考慮到這些因素，並且考慮到過去觀察到的極端下限乘數效應，我們可以為XRP最大的公牛跑步之一奠定基礎。

Additionally, the Ripple ecosystem continues to expand, with increased adoption of on-demand liquidity (ODL), partnerships with global banks, and advancements in cross-border payments. These fundamental developments further reinforce XRP’s long-term value proposition,

此外，隨著按需流動性（ODL）的採用增加，與全球銀行的合作夥伴關係以及跨境支付的進步，波紋生態系統不斷擴大。這些基本發展進一步加強了XRP的長期價值主張，