由于市场预期 SEC 监管转变，XRP ETF 批准几率飙升至 70%

正如流行的基于加密货币的预测平台 Polymarket 所预测的那样，XRP 的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 批准率已飙升至 70%。这一转变是在 XRP 价格大幅上涨、近七年来首次触及 3.39 美元后，人们越来越乐观的情况下发生的。

Anticipation builds for XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval, with Polymarket odds surging to 70%.

人们对 XRP 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获得批准的预期越来越高，Polymarket 的可能性飙升至 70%。

After a major price surge, hitting $3.39 for the first time in almost seven years, XRP has attracted increasing optimism regarding its ETF approval. This anticipation is particularly strong among investors and market analysts, following a recent record-breaking performance by XRP. As the cryptocurrency enjoyed a bullish wave, rising by more than 40% in just one week, its potential to secure approval for an ETF has gathered momentum.

在价格大幅上涨，近七年来首次触及 3.39 美元之后，XRP 因其 ETF 的批准而吸引了越来越多的乐观情绪。在 XRP 最近破纪录的表现之后，投资者和市场分析师的这种预期尤其强烈。随着加密货币迎来一波看涨浪潮，在短短一周内上涨了 40% 以上，其获得 ETF 批准的潜力已经增强。

According to predictions by JPMorgan, Solana and XRP ETFs could collectively see more than $14 billion in capital inflows by 2025. Among altcoin ETFs, these two are expected to draw the most attention, with XRP’s share of that amount estimated to be between $4 billion and $8 billion. This optimism is further fueled by the success of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, which could pave the way for other digital assets to enter the ETF space.

根据摩根大通的预测，到 2025 年，Solana 和 XRP ETF 的资本流入总额可能会超过 140 亿美元。在山寨币 ETF 中，这两个预计最受关注，其中 XRP 所占的份额估计在 40 亿美元到 40 亿美元之间。 80 亿美元。 2024 年美国比特币 ETF 的成功进一步推动了这种乐观情绪，这可能为其他数字资产进入 ETF 领域铺平道路。

Polymarket odds on the approval of XRP ETFs have jumped to 70%, increasing significantly from less than 50% just a week ago. This rise in odds demonstrates the heightened confidence within the cryptocurrency community, with many viewing the approval of XRP ETFs as an eventuality, rather than a distant dream.

Polymarket 批准 XRP ETF 的可能性已跃升至 70%，从一周前的不到 50% 大幅增加。这种可能性的上升表明加密货币社区的信心增强，许多人将 XRP ETF 的批准视为一种偶然，而不是一个遥远的梦想。

As the anticipation grows, investors are optimistic that the remaining regulatory challenges will soon be overcome, bringing XRP ETFs closer to reality. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to be the primary obstacle in the approval process. At present, there are four applications for XRP ETFs pending with the SEC: WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares.

随着预期的增长，投资者乐观地认为剩余的监管挑战将很快被克服，使 XRP ETF 更接近现实。然而，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）仍然是审批过程中的主要障碍。目前，有四项 XRP ETF 申请正在向 SEC 等待：WisdomTree、Bitwise、Canary Capital 和 21Shares。

The main challenge facing these applications stems from the SEC’s stance on XRP, which it still considers a security. However, the tides may be turning, as there are indications that the regulatory environment could shift.

这些应用程序面临的主要挑战源于 SEC 对 XRP 的立场，它仍然认为 XRP 是一种证券。然而，潮流可能正在转变，因为有迹象表明监管环境可能会发生变化。

With the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Trump, changes at the SEC are anticipated. Gary Gensler, the current SEC chair, a known opponent of Ripple and its XRP token, is expected to resign. This shift could lead to the reevaluation of XRP’s legal status, potentially dropping the long-standing lawsuit filed against Ripple. Legal experts and Ripple executives are hopeful that these developments will facilitate a more favorable environment for XRP ETF approval.

随着当选总统特朗普即将就职，预计美国证券交易委员会将发生变化。现任 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 预计将辞职，他是 Ripple 及其 XRP 代币的著名反对者。这一转变可能会导致对 XRP 法律地位的重新评估，从而可能撤销针对 Ripple 提起的长期诉讼。法律专家和 Ripple 高管希望这些进展将为 XRP ETF 的批准创造更有利的环境。

Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, has expressed confidence in this shift, emphasizing that the SEC’s ongoing appeal is based on previously unsuccessful arguments. He believes that the transition to pro-innovation regulation under the incoming administration will benefit Ripple and its projects, including the XRP ETF.

Ripple 首席执行官 Brad Garlinghouse 对这一转变表示有信心，并强调 SEC 的持续上诉是基于之前不成功的论点。他认为，新一届政府向支持创新监管的过渡将使 Ripple 及其项目受益，包括 XRP ETF。

In conclusion, while the SEC remains a significant hurdle, the increasing optimism surrounding XRP and its potential for ETF approval is undeniable. The likelihood of an XRP ETF approval has strengthened, and with regulatory shifts on the horizon, it may not be long before the first XRP ETF is introduced. However, as of now, Litecoin is likely to be the first altcoin to secure an ETF approval in 2025, as its ETF application is already in motion.

总之，虽然 SEC 仍然是一个重大障碍，但不可否认的是，围绕 XRP 及其获得 ETF 批准的潜力的乐观情绪日益增强。 XRP ETF 获得批准的可能性有所增强，并且随着监管变化的临近，第一只 XRP ETF 可能很快就会推出。然而，截至目前，莱特币很可能成为第一个在 2025 年获得 ETF 批准的山寨币，因为其 ETF 申请已经在进行中。