Wormhole 的代币发行：炒作压倒基本面，市值混乱

Wormhole 将以 1.5 美元左右的上市前价格推出其 W 美元代币，有可能成为市值最大的桥梁，市值约为 27 亿美元。然而，尽管其财务指标令人印象深刻，Wormhole 的采用率仍落后于其他代币桥梁项目，引发了对其潜在高估的质疑。

Wormhole's Token Launch: A Market Capitalization Conundrum

Wormhole 的代币发行：市值难题

Wormhole, the interoperability platform, is poised to launch its $W token with an anticipated pre-market price of approximately $1.5. This launch is expected to propel Wormhole to the forefront of bridges in terms of market capitalization.

互操作性平台 Wormhole 准备推出其 $W 代币，预计上市前价格约为 1.5 美元。此次推出预计将推动 Wormhole 在市值方面跻身桥梁行业前列。

With a projected circulating supply of 1.8 billion tokens, Wormhole's market cap would hover around $2.7 billion, while its fully diluted valuation (FDV) could reach $15 billion. While these financial metrics are impressive, Wormhole's adoption rates lag behind several other bridge projects that have their own tokens but significantly lower valuations, raising questions about potential overvaluation.

预计流通供应量为 18 亿枚代币，Wormhole 的市值将徘徊在 27 亿美元左右，而其完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 可能达到 150 亿美元。虽然这些财务指标令人印象深刻，但 Wormhole 的采用率落后于其他几个拥有自己代币但估值显着较低的桥梁项目，引发了有关潜在高估的问题。

According to Defillama statistics, the 24-hour transaction volume across all bridges currently stands at approximately $444 million, with Wormhole accounting for around $11 million or about 2% of the total. This volume places Wormhole outside the top 10 bridges by volume.

据 Defillama 统计，目前所有桥的 24 小时交易量约为 4.44 亿美元，其中 Wormhole 约占 1100 万美元，约占总量的 2%。按体积计算，该卷将 Wormhole 排在前 10 名桥梁之外。

Defillama's data includes bridges launched by Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism. However, our primary focus is on general-purpose bridges and their valuations in comparison to Wormhole.

Defillama 的数据包括 Arbitrum、Polygon 和 Optimism 等第 2 层网络启动的网桥。然而，我们的主要关注点是通用桥梁及其与虫洞相比的估值。

Notable projects in this category, such as Stargate Finance, Connext, Across Protocol, and Celer, boast significantly higher daily volumes but trade at far lower valuations than Wormhole. This apparent disparity can be attributed to the cryptocurrency market's unique dynamics, where traditional logic does not always apply.

这一类别中的著名项目，如 Stargate Finance、Connext、Across Protocol 和 Celer，每天的交易量明显高于 Wormhole，但交易估值却远低于 Wormhole。这种明显的差异可以归因于加密货币市场的独特动态，传统逻辑并不总是适用。

Valuations in this market are often influenced by hype generated by influencers, investment funds, and other profit-seeking entities rather than fundamental factors. Wormhole has garnered substantial attention at an opportune time, particularly as a key bridge for the Solana ecosystem, which is currently a focal point of interest.

该市场的估值往往受到影响者、投资基金和其他逐利实体炒作的影响，而不是基本面因素。虫洞在适当的时候引起了广泛的关注，特别是作为 Solana 生态系统的关键桥梁，该生态系统目前是人们关注的焦点。

For Wormhole and its investors, the current valuation may present an opportune moment for the token's launch. The project recently secured $225 million in funding at a valuation of $2.5 billion, with backing from Coinbase Ventures, Multicoin Capital, and others. Based on the FDV and excluding the vesting schedule, the current valuation suggests a potential minimum 6x return for investors.

对于 Wormhole 及其投资者来说，当前的估值可能为该代币的推出提供了一个合适的时机。该项目最近在 Coinbase Ventures、Multicoin Capital 等公司的支持下以 25 亿美元的估值获得了 2.25 亿美元的融资。根据 FDV 并排除行权时间表，当前估值表明投资者的潜在回报率至少为 6 倍。

However, the necessity of the token within the Wormhole ecosystem remains debatable. Currently, it serves mainly as a governance token, a feature common among DeFi projects like Uniswap's UNI and Aave's AAVE, which have similar governance functions.

然而，虫洞生态系统中代币的必要性仍然存在争议。目前，它主要作为治理代币，这是 Uniswap 的 UNI 和 Aave 的 AAVE 等 DeFi 项目的共同特征，它们具有类似的治理功能。

Governance-only tokens provide limited utility, and since users do not require them to utilize the product, their value capture is likely to be negligible. This challenge is not exclusive to Wormhole but affects approximately 90% of other crypto projects in the space.

仅用于治理的代币提供的效用有限，并且由于用户不需要它们使用该产品，因此它们的价值捕获可能可以忽略不计。这一挑战并非 Wormhole 所独有，还影响了该领域约 90% 的其他加密项目。

Predicting the trajectory of the $W token's price is a perilous endeavor. While it may appear overvalued, it is crucial to recognize that markets can remain irrational for an extended period. Wormhole's valuation and future prospects will continue to be closely monitored by market observers.

预测 $W 代币价格的轨迹是一项危险的工作。虽然它可能看起来被高估，但重要的是要认识到市场可能会在较长时期内保持非理性。 Wormhole的估值和未来前景将继续受到市场观察人士的密切关注。