Wormhole 的代幣發行：炒作壓倒基本面，市值混亂

Wormhole 將以 1.5 美元左右的上市前價格推出其 W 美元代幣，有可能成為市值最大的橋樑，市值約為 27 億美元。然而，儘管其財務指標令人印象深刻，Wormhole 的採用率仍落後於其他代幣橋樑項目，引發了對其潛在高估的質疑。

Wormhole's Token Launch: A Market Capitalization Conundrum

Wormhole 的代幣發行：市值難題

Wormhole, the interoperability platform, is poised to launch its $W token with an anticipated pre-market price of approximately $1.5. This launch is expected to propel Wormhole to the forefront of bridges in terms of market capitalization.

互通性平台 Wormhole 準備推出其 $W 代幣，預計上市前價格約為 1.5 美元。此次推出預計將推動 Wormhole 在市值方面躋身橋樑產業前列。

With a projected circulating supply of 1.8 billion tokens, Wormhole's market cap would hover around $2.7 billion, while its fully diluted valuation (FDV) could reach $15 billion. While these financial metrics are impressive, Wormhole's adoption rates lag behind several other bridge projects that have their own tokens but significantly lower valuations, raising questions about potential overvaluation.

預計流通供應量為 18 億枚代幣，Wormhole 的市值將徘徊在 27 億美元左右，而其完全稀釋估值 (FDV) 可能達到 150 億美元。雖然這些財務指標令人印象深刻，但 Wormhole 的採用率落後於其他幾個擁有自己代幣但估值顯著較低的橋樑項目，引發了有關潛在高估的問題。

According to Defillama statistics, the 24-hour transaction volume across all bridges currently stands at approximately $444 million, with Wormhole accounting for around $11 million or about 2% of the total. This volume places Wormhole outside the top 10 bridges by volume.

根據 Defillama 統計，目前所有橋的 24 小時交易量約為 4.44 億美元，其中 Wormhole 約佔 1,100 萬美元，約佔總量的 2%。以體積計算，該卷將 Wormhole 排在前 10 名橋樑之外。

Defillama's data includes bridges launched by Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism. However, our primary focus is on general-purpose bridges and their valuations in comparison to Wormhole.

Defillama 的資料包括 Arbitrum、Polygon 和 Optimism 等第 2 層網路啟動的網橋。然而，我們的主要關注點是通用橋樑及其與蟲洞相比的估值。

Notable projects in this category, such as Stargate Finance, Connext, Across Protocol, and Celer, boast significantly higher daily volumes but trade at far lower valuations than Wormhole. This apparent disparity can be attributed to the cryptocurrency market's unique dynamics, where traditional logic does not always apply.

這一類別中的著名項目，如 Stargate Finance、Connext、Across Protocol 和 Celer，每天的交易量明顯高於 Wormhole，但交易估值遠低於 Wormhole。這種明顯的差異可以歸因於加密貨幣市場的獨特動態，傳統邏輯並不總是適用。

Valuations in this market are often influenced by hype generated by influencers, investment funds, and other profit-seeking entities rather than fundamental factors. Wormhole has garnered substantial attention at an opportune time, particularly as a key bridge for the Solana ecosystem, which is currently a focal point of interest.

該市場的估值往往受到影響者、投資基金和其他逐利實體炒作的影響，而不是基本面因素。蟲洞在適當的時候引起了廣泛的關注，特別是作為 Solana 生態系統的關鍵橋樑，目前是人們關注的焦點。

For Wormhole and its investors, the current valuation may present an opportune moment for the token's launch. The project recently secured $225 million in funding at a valuation of $2.5 billion, with backing from Coinbase Ventures, Multicoin Capital, and others. Based on the FDV and excluding the vesting schedule, the current valuation suggests a potential minimum 6x return for investors.

對於 Wormhole 及其投資者來說，當前的估值可能為該代幣的推出提供了一個合適的時機。該項目最近在 Coinbase Ventures、Multicoin Capital 等公司的支持下以 25 億美元的估值獲得了 2.25 億美元的融資。根據 FDV 並排除行權時間表，當前估值表明投資者的潛在回報率至少為 6 倍。

However, the necessity of the token within the Wormhole ecosystem remains debatable. Currently, it serves mainly as a governance token, a feature common among DeFi projects like Uniswap's UNI and Aave's AAVE, which have similar governance functions.

然而，蟲洞生態系中代幣的必要性仍有爭議。目前，它主要作為治理代幣，這是 Uniswap 的 UNI 和 Aave 的 AAVE 等 DeFi 計畫的共同特徵，它們具有類似的治理功能。

Governance-only tokens provide limited utility, and since users do not require them to utilize the product, their value capture is likely to be negligible. This challenge is not exclusive to Wormhole but affects approximately 90% of other crypto projects in the space.

僅用於治理的代幣提供的效用有限，由於用戶不需要它們使用該產品，因此它們的價值捕獲可能可以忽略不計。這項挑戰並非 Wormhole 獨有，也影響了該領域約 90% 的其他加密項目。

Predicting the trajectory of the $W token's price is a perilous endeavor. While it may appear overvalued, it is crucial to recognize that markets can remain irrational for an extended period. Wormhole's valuation and future prospects will continue to be closely monitored by market observers.

預測 $W 代幣價格的軌跡是一項危險的工作。雖然它可能看起來被高估，但重要的是要認識到市場可能會在較長時期內保持非理性。 Wormhole的估值和未來前景將繼續受到市場觀察人士的密切關注。