Web3 每周卷。 243：高盛下调美联储降息预期；美国国税局 (IRS) 将加密货币税务报告规则推迟至 2025 年底

高盛调整美联储降息预期，将今年降息预期从100个基点下调至75个基点

I. Key Attention Value - Market Highlights

一、重点关注价值——市场亮点

1. Market Conditions

1、市场情况

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Goldman Sachs lowers Fed rate cut forecast amid trend of falling inflation

（一）宏观经济环境：通胀回落趋势下高盛下调美联储降息预期

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering the expectation from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year. The report highlights that core inflation has been rising at a slower pace than anticipated. According to the report, the annualized increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, which is slightly higher than the previous three months' 2.3%, but still lower than the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a continued trend of falling inflation.

高盛调整了美联储降息预期，将今年降息预期从100个基点下调至75个基点。报告强调，核心通胀的上升速度低于预期。报告显示，去年9月至11月核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀年化增幅为2.5%，略高于前三个月的2.3%，但仍低于去年同期增长2.8%，表明通胀持续回落。

Additionally, the revised average PCE inflation data from the Dallas Fed shows that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, while the inflation rate in November last year was 1.8%. As the labor market gradually tightens, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity growth in the coming years is between 1.5% and 2%, this would align with the 2% inflation target.

此外，达拉斯联储修正后的平均PCE通胀数据显示，去年9月至11月PCE年化通胀率为2.4%，而去年11月通胀率为1.8%。随着劳动力市场逐渐趋紧，年工资增速放缓至3.9%，区间在3.5%至4%之间。如果未来几年的生产率增长在 1.5% 至 2% 之间，这将与 2% 的通胀目标保持一致。

(2) Web3 Sector: IRS delays cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until the end of 2025

(2) Web3部门：国税局将加密货币税务报告规则推迟至2025年底

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has postponed the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until December 31, 2025, to provide brokers with more time to adapt amid legal and regulatory challenges. According to reports, the IRS has also released a temporary relief measure expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025.

美国国税局 (IRS) 将加密货币税务报告规则的实施推迟至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，以便为经纪商提供更多时间来适应法律和监管挑战。据报道，美国国税局还发布了一项临时救济措施，预计将在 2025 年让中心化金融（CeFi）交易平台上的加密货币持有者受益。

The new rules, which were initially set to take effect on January 1, 2025, require the use of a first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 1, 2025, unless other methods such as highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) are chosen.

新规则最初定于 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效，要求从 2025 年 1 月 1 日开始对加密资产采用先进先出（FIFO）记账方法，除非采用最高计算等其他方法。选择输入、先出 (HIFO) 或特定标识 (Spec ID)。

2. Hot Events

2. 热点事件

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Syrian NGO proposes a Bitcoin-based banking system to promote economic reconstruction

（1）宏观经济环境：叙利亚非政府组织提出基于比特币的银行系统以促进经济重建

A Syrian non-governmental organization (NGO) has called on the new government to consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Center for Economic Research (SCER) stated in its policy proposal that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from inflation and currency devaluation.

叙利亚非政府组织（NGO）呼吁新政府考虑建立基于比特币网络和相关技术的银行系统。叙利亚经济研究中心（SCER）在其政策提案中表示，这样的系统对于加速国家重建、保护公众免受通货膨胀和货币贬值的影响至关重要。

This proposal, which has been dubbed the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," aims to provide new solutions for the economically distressed country. Since taking office in December 2024, newly elected President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been seeking international recognition to secure reconstruction funding.

这项提案被称为“叙利亚比特币政策”，旨在为这个经济陷入困境的国家提供新的解决方案。自 2024 年 12 月上任以来，新当选总统艾哈迈德·沙拉一直在寻求国际认可，以确保重建资金。

SCER emphasizes that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legitimize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting Syria's economic recovery. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering backing it with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

SCER强调，政府应建立全面的监管框架，使比特币和其他数字资产的交易和挖矿合法化，从而促进叙利亚经济复苏。此外，该提案建议将叙利亚镑数字化，并考虑用美元和比特币等资产支持它。

(2) Web3 Sector: Ethereum News Weekly announces shutdown, citing lack of support and sustainable business model

(2) Web3部门：以太坊新闻周刊宣布关闭，理由是缺乏支持和可持续的商业模式

Evan Van Ness, the founder of Ethereum News Weekly (WiE), has announced on social media that WiE will officially cease operations on January 1,

以太坊新闻周刊（WiE）创始人Evan Van Ness在社交媒体上宣布，WiE将于1月1日正式停止运营，