Web3 每週卷。 243：高盛下調聯準會降息預期；美國國稅局 (IRS) 將加密貨幣稅務報告規則推遲至 2025 年底

高盛調整聯準會降息預期，將今年降息預期從100個基點下調至75個基點

I. Key Attention Value - Market Highlights

一、重點關注價值——市場亮點

1. Market Conditions

1、市場狀況

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Goldman Sachs lowers Fed rate cut forecast amid trend of falling inflation

（一）宏觀經濟環境：通膨回落趨勢下高盛下調聯準會降息預期

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering the expectation from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year. The report highlights that core inflation has been rising at a slower pace than anticipated. According to the report, the annualized increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, which is slightly higher than the previous three months' 2.3%, but still lower than the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a continued trend of falling inflation.

高盛調整了聯準會降息預期，將今年降息預期從100個基點下調至75個基點。報告強調，核心通膨的上升速度低於預期。報告顯示，去年9月至11月核心個人消費支出(PCE)通膨年化增幅為2.5%，略高於前三個月的2.3%，但仍低於去年同期成長2.8%，顯示通膨持續回落。

Additionally, the revised average PCE inflation data from the Dallas Fed shows that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, while the inflation rate in November last year was 1.8%. As the labor market gradually tightens, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity growth in the coming years is between 1.5% and 2%, this would align with the 2% inflation target.

此外，達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行修正後的平均PCE通膨數據顯示，去年9月至11月PCE年化通膨率為2.4%，而去年11月通膨率為1.8%。隨著勞動市場逐漸趨緊，年工資成長放緩至3.9%，區間在3.5%至4%之間。如果未來幾年的生產力成長在 1.5% 至 2% 之間，這將與 2% 的通膨目標保持一致。

(2) Web3 Sector: IRS delays cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until the end of 2025

(2) Web3部門：國稅局將加密貨幣稅務申報規則延後至2025年底

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has postponed the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until December 31, 2025, to provide brokers with more time to adapt amid legal and regulatory challenges. According to reports, the IRS has also released a temporary relief measure expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025.

美國國稅局 (IRS) 將加密貨幣稅務報告規則的實施推遲至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，以便為經紀商提供更多時間來適應法律和監管挑戰。據報道，美國國稅局還發布了一項臨時救濟措施，預計將在 2025 年讓中心化金融（CeFi）交易平台上的加密貨幣持有者受益。

The new rules, which were initially set to take effect on January 1, 2025, require the use of a first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 1, 2025, unless other methods such as highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) are chosen.

新規則最初定於 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效，要求從 2025 年 1 月 1 日開始對加密資產採用先進先出（FIFO）記帳方法，除非採用最高計算等其他方法。 HIFO) 或特定標識(Spec ID)。

2. Hot Events

2. 熱點事件

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Syrian NGO proposes a Bitcoin-based banking system to promote economic reconstruction

（1）宏觀經濟環境：敘利亞非政府組織提出基於比特幣的銀行系統以促進經濟重建

A Syrian non-governmental organization (NGO) has called on the new government to consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Center for Economic Research (SCER) stated in its policy proposal that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from inflation and currency devaluation.

敘利亞非政府組織（NGO）呼籲新政府考慮建立基於比特幣網路和相關技術的銀行系統。敘利亞經濟研究中心（SCER）在其政策提案中表示，這樣的系統對於加速國家重建、保護公眾免受通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的影響至關重要。

This proposal, which has been dubbed the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," aims to provide new solutions for the economically distressed country. Since taking office in December 2024, newly elected President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been seeking international recognition to secure reconstruction funding.

這項提案被稱為“敘利亞比特幣政策”，旨在為這個經濟陷入困境的國家提供新的解決方案。自 2024 年 12 月上任以來，新當選總統艾哈邁德·沙拉一直在尋求國際認可，以確保重建資金。

SCER emphasizes that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legitimize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting Syria's economic recovery. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering backing it with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

SCER強調，政府應建立全面的監管框架，使比特幣和其他數位資產的交易和挖礦合法化，從而促進敘利亞經濟復甦。此外，該提案建議將敘利亞鎊數位化，並考慮用美元和比特幣等資產支持它。

(2) Web3 Sector: Ethereum News Weekly announces shutdown, citing lack of support and sustainable business model

(2) Web3部門：以太坊新聞週刊宣布關閉，理由是缺乏支持和可持續的商業模式

Evan Van Ness, the founder of Ethereum News Weekly (WiE), has announced on social media that WiE will officially cease operations on January 1,

以太坊新聞周刊（WiE）創辦人Evan Van Ness在社群媒體上宣布，WiE將於1月1日正式停止運營，