Web3 Weekly Vol. 243: Goldman Sachs Lowers Fed Rate Cut Forecast; IRS Delays Cryptocurrency Tax Reporting Rules until the End of 2025

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering the expectation from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year

I. Key Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Conditions

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Goldman Sachs lowers Fed rate cut forecast amid trend of falling inflation

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering the expectation from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year. The report highlights that core inflation has been rising at a slower pace than anticipated. According to the report, the annualized increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, which is slightly higher than the previous three months' 2.3%, but still lower than the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a continued trend of falling inflation.

Additionally, the revised average PCE inflation data from the Dallas Fed shows that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, while the inflation rate in November last year was 1.8%. As the labor market gradually tightens, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity growth in the coming years is between 1.5% and 2%, this would align with the 2% inflation target.

(2) Web3 Sector: IRS delays cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until the end of 2025

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has postponed the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until December 31, 2025, to provide brokers with more time to adapt amid legal and regulatory challenges. According to reports, the IRS has also released a temporary relief measure expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025.

The new rules, which were initially set to take effect on January 1, 2025, require the use of a first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 1, 2025, unless other methods such as highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) are chosen.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment: Syrian NGO proposes a Bitcoin-based banking system to promote economic reconstruction

A Syrian non-governmental organization (NGO) has called on the new government to consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Center for Economic Research (SCER) stated in its policy proposal that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from inflation and currency devaluation.

This proposal, which has been dubbed the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," aims to provide new solutions for the economically distressed country. Since taking office in December 2024, newly elected President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been seeking international recognition to secure reconstruction funding.

SCER emphasizes that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legitimize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting Syria's economic recovery. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering backing it with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

(2) Web3 Sector: Ethereum News Weekly announces shutdown, citing lack of support and sustainable business model

Evan Van Ness, the founder of Ethereum News Weekly (WiE), has announced on social media that WiE will officially cease operations on January 1,