资深交易员 Peter Brandt 表示 2025 年 8 月之前比特币不会暴跌

在比特币价格突破 10 万美元价格点的本周强劲开局之后，加密货币市场再次出现亏损，强于预期

Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt has offered a medium-term market insight that appears to suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to experience a major correction until August 202025.

资深大宗商品交易员 Peter Brandt 提供了中期市场见解，似乎表明比特币 (BTC) 在 2025 年 8 月之前不太可能经历重大调整。

Following a strong start to the week with Bitcoin trading above the $100,000 price point, the crypto market is back in the red again as stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data releases dampened interest rate cut expectations.

在比特币交易价格突破 10 万美元价格点的本周强劲开局之后，由于强于预期的美国经济数据发布削弱了降息预期，加密货币市场再次出现亏损。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is optimistic about Bitcoin's medium-term price trajectory. In a Wednesday, January 8 comment on X, crypto trader Nilesh Rohilla shared his view with Brandt that it was better to target time than price with Bitcoin. He highlighted key windows like the first 18 months after the Bitcoin halving and the 12 months after the U.S. elections, which have historically seen price upticks.

资深交易员彼得·勃兰特对比特币的中期价格轨迹持乐观态度。在 1 月 8 日星期三的 X 评论中，加密货币交易员 Nilesh Rohilla 与 Brandt 分享了他的观点，即比特币的目标时间比价格更好。他强调了比特币减半后的前 18 个月和美国大选后的 12 个月等关键时段，这些时段历来都是价格上涨的时期。

Responding to the comment, Brandt agreed with Rohilla’s view and went on to highlight a pattern in the analyst’s chart. Rohilla shared a daily candle chart showing Bitcoin’s price action from November 2023 till date, circling the asset’s price action between November 2023 and February 2024 and the price action from November 2024 till date, in anticipation of the price repeating the pattern. The pattern saw Bitcoin begin correcting from a point in December 2023 before kicking off a rally sometime in February 2024.

在回应这一评论时，布兰特同意罗希拉的观点，并继续强调了分析师图表中的一个模式。 Rohilla 分享了一张每日蜡烛图，显示了 2023 年 11 月至今比特币的价格走势，围绕该资产在 2023 年 11 月至 2024 年 2 月期间的价格走势以及 2024 年 11 月至今的价格走势，预计价格会重复这一模式。根据这一模式，比特币从 2023 年 12 月的某个点开始修正，然后在 2024 年 2 月的某个时间开始反弹。

Brandt asserted that the circled patterns were “very typical corrections” that Bitcoin has replicated throughout its history. He added that he did not expect the pattern to repeat until August 2025.

布兰特声称，圈出的模式是比特币在其历史上不断复制的“非常典型的修正”。他补充说，他预计这种模式要到 2025 年 8 月才会重演。

On close inspection, the circled pattern appears to be the Brandt-named “hump slump bump dump pump,” Bitcoin correction pattern or hump slump for short. As has been highlighted by the veteran trader, the leading crypto asset’s parabolic runs have historically been littered with this pattern.

仔细观察，圆圈模式似乎是布兰特命名的“驼峰暴跌暴跌暴涨”，比特币修正模式或简称驼峰暴跌。正如这位资深交易员所强调的那样，领先的加密资产的抛物线运行历史上充斥着这种模式。

On December 29, Brandt asserted that Bitcoin was likely in this pattern again but noted that a steeper decline was necessary for it to complete. Specifically, Bitcoin had to breach the horizontal support near the $89,000 price point.

12 月 29 日，布兰特断言，比特币很可能再次处于这种模式，但指出，比特币需要更大幅度的下跌才能完成。具体来说，比特币必须突破 89,000 美元价格点附近的水平支撑位。

One potential way Brandt noted that Bitcoin could complete this pattern is by fulfilling a head and shoulders pattern he identified on the asset’s daily candle chart. Previously, Brandt had said that the target of this pattern was $78,000. On Wednesday, however, he adjusted this target to $73,000.

布兰特指出，比特币完成这一模式的一种潜在方式是实现他在该资产的每日蜡烛图上确定的头肩形态。此前，布兰特曾表示，该形态的目标是78,000美元。然而周三，他将该目标调整为 73,000 美元。

Regardless, the analysis points to a significant market flush before Bitcoin can firmly resume its upward trajectory.

无论如何，分析表明，在比特币能够坚定地恢复其上升轨迹之前，市场将出现大幅上涨。