資深交易員 Peter Brandt 表示 2025 年 8 月前比特幣不會暴跌

在比特幣價格突破 10 萬美元價格點的本週強勁開局之後，加密貨幣市場再次出現虧損，強於預期

Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt has offered a medium-term market insight that appears to suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to experience a major correction until August 202025.

資深大宗商品交易員 Peter Brandt 提供了中期市場見解，似乎表明比特幣 (BTC) 在 2025 年 8 月之前不太可能經歷重大調整。

Following a strong start to the week with Bitcoin trading above the $100,000 price point, the crypto market is back in the red again as stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data releases dampened interest rate cut expectations.

在比特幣交易價格突破 10 萬美元價格點的本週強勁開局之後，由於強於預期的美國經濟數據發布削弱了降息預期，加密貨幣市場再次出現虧損。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is optimistic about Bitcoin's medium-term price trajectory. In a Wednesday, January 8 comment on X, crypto trader Nilesh Rohilla shared his view with Brandt that it was better to target time than price with Bitcoin. He highlighted key windows like the first 18 months after the Bitcoin halving and the 12 months after the U.S. elections, which have historically seen price upticks.

資深交易員彼得·布蘭特對比特幣的中期價格軌跡持樂觀態度。在 1 月 8 日星期三的 X 評論中，加密貨幣交易員 Nilesh Rohilla 與 Brandt 分享了他的觀點，即比特幣的目標時間比價格更好。他強調了關鍵時段，例如比特幣減半後的前 18 個月和美國大選後的 12 個月，這些時段歷史上價格都會上漲。

Responding to the comment, Brandt agreed with Rohilla’s view and went on to highlight a pattern in the analyst’s chart. Rohilla shared a daily candle chart showing Bitcoin’s price action from November 2023 till date, circling the asset’s price action between November 2023 and February 2024 and the price action from November 2024 till date, in anticipation of the price repeating the pattern. The pattern saw Bitcoin begin correcting from a point in December 2023 before kicking off a rally sometime in February 2024.

在回應這一評論時，布蘭特同意羅希拉的觀點，並繼續強調了分析師圖表中的一個模式。 Rohilla 分享了一張每日蠟燭圖，顯示了2023 年11 月至今比特幣的價格走勢，圍繞該資產在2023 年11 月至2024 年2 月期間的價格走勢以及2024 年11 月至今的價格走勢，預計價格會重複此模式。根據這個模式，比特幣從 2023 年 12 月的某個點開始修正，然後在 2024 年 2 月的某個時間點開始反彈。

Brandt asserted that the circled patterns were “very typical corrections” that Bitcoin has replicated throughout its history. He added that he did not expect the pattern to repeat until August 2025.

布蘭特聲稱，圈起來的模式是比特幣在其歷史上不斷複製的「非常典型的修正」。他補充說，他預計這種模式要到 2025 年 8 月才會重演。

On close inspection, the circled pattern appears to be the Brandt-named “hump slump bump dump pump,” Bitcoin correction pattern or hump slump for short. As has been highlighted by the veteran trader, the leading crypto asset’s parabolic runs have historically been littered with this pattern.

仔細觀察，圓圈模式似乎是布蘭特命名的“駝峰暴跌暴跌暴漲”，比特幣修正模式或簡稱駝峰暴跌。正如這位資深交易員所強調的那樣，領先的加密資產的拋物線運行歷史上充斥著這種模式。

On December 29, Brandt asserted that Bitcoin was likely in this pattern again but noted that a steeper decline was necessary for it to complete. Specifically, Bitcoin had to breach the horizontal support near the $89,000 price point.

12 月 29 日，布蘭特斷言，比特幣很可能再次處於這種模式，但指出，比特幣需要更大幅度的下跌才能完成。具體來說，比特幣必須突破 89,000 美元價格點附近的水平支撐。

One potential way Brandt noted that Bitcoin could complete this pattern is by fulfilling a head and shoulders pattern he identified on the asset’s daily candle chart. Previously, Brandt had said that the target of this pattern was $78,000. On Wednesday, however, he adjusted this target to $73,000.

布蘭特指出，比特幣完成這一模式的一種潛在方法是實現他在該資產的每日蠟燭圖上確定的頭肩形態。此前，布蘭特曾表示，該模式的目標是78,000美元。然而週三，他將該目標調整為 73,000 美元。

Regardless, the analysis points to a significant market flush before Bitcoin can firmly resume its upward trajectory.

無論如何，分析表明，在比特幣能夠堅定地恢復其上升軌跡之前，市場將大幅上漲。