资深投资者马克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）在牛市上概述了比特币的价格旅程

资深美国投资者兼对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）提供了对塑造比特币价格的各种因素的见解

Veteran American investor and hedge fund manager Mark Yusko has offered his insights into the various factors that shape Bitcoin’s price journey during a bull market.

资深美国投资者兼对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）提供了他对在牛市上塑造比特币价格旅程的各种因素的见解。

Drawing on his extensive experience, Yusko has laid out a potential roadmap for Bitcoin’s price in the months ahead, giving investors an idea of whether now might be a good time to jump in.

利用他的丰富经验，Yusko在未来几个月内为比特币的价格提出了潜在的路线图，这使投资者了解现在是否可能是跳入的好时机。

Yusko analyzed the Bitcoin market in an episode of the "Mark Isليك Yusko" podcast, highlighting the roles played by miners, early investors, traders, and other key players during a bull cycle. He explained how each group’s actions contribute to Bitcoin’s price evolution and then compared the current market phase to previous cycles, offering a perspective on what the rest of the year might hold.

尤斯科（Yusko）在“马克·Yisk Yusko”播客的一集中分析了比特币市场，突出了矿工，早期投资者，贸易商和其他主要参与者在公牛周期中扮演的角色。他解释了每个小组的行动如何促进比特币的价格演变，然后将当前市场阶段与以前的周期进行了比较，从而对今年其余时间的成立提供了观点。

According to Yusko, Bitcoin miners are crucial because they operate under a fundamental mathematical constraint. Bitcoin’s built-in halving event, which cuts miners’ rewards in half every four years, essentially forces them to hold onto their Bitcoin until they can command higher prices.

根据Yusko的说法，比特币矿工至关重要，因为他们在基本的数学约束下运作。比特币内置的半弯曲事件，该活动每四年就削减了矿工的奖励，从本质上迫使他们坚持自己的比特币，直到他们可以达到更高的价格为止。

"The miners are going to be forced to hold because they have to get at least 125,000 BTC in order to be able to pay the סינט and leave a small profit for themselves, assuming they can mine at a cost of $60,000 in electricity per coin," Yusko explained.

Yusko解释说：“矿工将被迫持有，因为他们必须至少获得125,000 BTC，才能能够支付ססנט并为自己留下少量利润，假设他们可以以每枚硬币的60,000美元电力挖掘。”

However, this scenario assumes that early investors, who bought Bitcoin for significantly lower prices, will be willing to sell at such a high rate. If not enough early investors sell, the price will crash, leading to even greater losses for the miners.

但是，这种情况假设以明显较低的价格购买比特币的早期投资者将愿意以如此高的价格出售。如果没有足够的早期投资者出售，价格将会崩溃，从而导致矿工造成更大的损失。

"The problem is that if they're holding 60,000 or 80,000 BTC in their wallets from the early days of the bull market, why would they sell at 125,000 when they bought it for $1,000 or $6,000?" Yusko posed the question.

“问题是，如果他们从牛市的早期开始在钱包里拿着60,000或80,000 BTC，为什么他们以1,000美元或6,000美元的价格购买时会以125,000的价格出售？”尤斯科提出了这个问题。

This dynamic of the Bitcoin halving causes the price to move above fair value, boosting the worth of investors' portfolios, most of which they acquired before the halving event. As the value surges, it attracts traders into the market, pushing prices higher and attracting speculators that trigger an even greater move away from fair value.

比特币减半的这种动态使价格提高了投资者投资组合的价值，他们在减半活动之前获得了大部分的价值。随着价值的增长，它吸引了贸易商进入市场，推动价格更高，并吸引了触发更大偏离公允价值的投机者。

"The traders will come in and say, 'Oh, wow, Bitcoin is going up a lot. Maybe I should start trading it.' And then the speculators will come in with leverage, and the price will really move in a parabolic fashion."

“交易者会进来说，'哦，哇，比特币上升了很多。也许我应该开始交易它。'然后，投机者将带有杠杆作用，而且价格确实会以抛物线方式移动。”

Yusko believes Bitcoin has already gone through these stages since the last halving event last year and is currently in a consolidation phase. He also noted the significant influence of global financial cycles, particularly in China, on Bitcoin’s current period of price stabilization.

尤斯科认为，自去年上一次减半活动以来，比特币已经经历了这些阶段，目前处于合并阶段。他还指出，全球金融周期，特别是在中国，对比特币目前的价格稳定时期的重大影响。

"We're in the second quarter of the cycle, and logically, the price should move back down towards fair value. Maybe it goes to 100,000 or 90,000, at which point the speculators will get liquidated and the traders will leave the market."

“我们处于周期的第二季度，从逻辑上讲，价格应该向后朝公允价值降低。也许是100,000或90,000，这时投机者将被清算，交易员将离开市场。”

Looking ahead, Yusko suggests that the second quarter of the cycle typically sees Bitcoin’s price move back towards its fair value, setting the stage for another rally. Consequently, he anticipates continued price consolidation for Bitcoin in the coming months before another upward surge, which he believes could be sparked by the potential passage of the Strategic Bitcoin Strategy bill.

展望未来，尤斯科（Yusko）建议，周期的第二季度通常会看到比特币的价格向其公允价值转移，为另一场集会奠定了基础。因此，他预计比特币在接下来的几个月中继续进行比特币的价格持续合并，他认为战略比特币战略法案的潜在通过可能会激发这种情况。

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