資深投資者馬克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）在牛市上概述了比特幣的價格旅程

資深美國投資者兼對沖基金經理馬克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）提供了對塑造比特幣價格的各種因素的見解

Veteran American investor and hedge fund manager Mark Yusko has offered his insights into the various factors that shape Bitcoin’s price journey during a bull market.

資深美國投資者兼對沖基金經理馬克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）提供了他對在牛市中塑造比特幣價格旅程的各種因素的見解。

Drawing on his extensive experience, Yusko has laid out a potential roadmap for Bitcoin’s price in the months ahead, giving investors an idea of whether now might be a good time to jump in.

利用他的豐富經驗，Yusko在未來幾個月內為比特幣的價格提出了潛在的路線圖，這使投資者了解現在是否可能是跳入的好時機。

Yusko analyzed the Bitcoin market in an episode of the "Mark Isليك Yusko" podcast, highlighting the roles played by miners, early investors, traders, and other key players during a bull cycle. He explained how each group’s actions contribute to Bitcoin’s price evolution and then compared the current market phase to previous cycles, offering a perspective on what the rest of the year might hold.

尤斯科（Yusko）在“馬克·Yisk Yusko”播客的一集中分析了比特幣市場，突出了礦工，早期投資者，貿易商和其他主要參與者在公牛週期中扮演的角色。他解釋了每個小組的行動如何促進比特幣的價格演變，然後將當前市場階段與以前的周期進行了比較，從而對今年其餘時間的成立提供了觀點。

According to Yusko, Bitcoin miners are crucial because they operate under a fundamental mathematical constraint. Bitcoin’s built-in halving event, which cuts miners’ rewards in half every four years, essentially forces them to hold onto their Bitcoin until they can command higher prices.

根據Yusko的說法，比特幣礦工至關重要，因為他們在基本的數學約束下運作。比特幣內置的半彎曲事件，該活動每四年就削減了礦工的獎勵，從本質上迫使他們堅持自己的比特幣，直到他們可以達到更高的價格為止。

"The miners are going to be forced to hold because they have to get at least 125,000 BTC in order to be able to pay the סינט and leave a small profit for themselves, assuming they can mine at a cost of $60,000 in electricity per coin," Yusko explained.

Yusko解釋說：“礦工將被迫持有，因為他們必須至少獲得125,000 BTC，才能能夠支付ססנט並為自己留下少量利潤，假設他們可以以每枚硬幣的60,000美元電力挖掘。”

However, this scenario assumes that early investors, who bought Bitcoin for significantly lower prices, will be willing to sell at such a high rate. If not enough early investors sell, the price will crash, leading to even greater losses for the miners.

但是，這種情況假設以明顯較低的價格購買比特幣的早期投資者將願意以如此高的價格出售。如果沒有足夠的早期投資者出售，價格將會崩潰，從而導致礦工造成更大的損失。

"The problem is that if they're holding 60,000 or 80,000 BTC in their wallets from the early days of the bull market, why would they sell at 125,000 when they bought it for $1,000 or $6,000?" Yusko posed the question.

“問題是，如果他們從牛市的早期開始在錢包裡拿著60,000或80,000 BTC，為什麼他們以1,000美元或6,000美元的價格購買時會以125,000的價格出售？”尤斯科提出了這個問題。

This dynamic of the Bitcoin halving causes the price to move above fair value, boosting the worth of investors' portfolios, most of which they acquired before the halving event. As the value surges, it attracts traders into the market, pushing prices higher and attracting speculators that trigger an even greater move away from fair value.

比特幣減半的這種動態使價格提高了投資者投資組合的價值，他們在減半活動之前獲得了大部分的價值。隨著價值的增長，它吸引了貿易商進入市場，推動價格更高，並吸引了觸發更大偏離公允價值的投機者。

"The traders will come in and say, 'Oh, wow, Bitcoin is going up a lot. Maybe I should start trading it.' And then the speculators will come in with leverage, and the price will really move in a parabolic fashion."

“交易者會進來說，'哦，哇，比特幣上升了很多。也許我應該開始交易它。'然後，投機者將帶有槓桿作用，而且價格確實會以拋物線方式移動。”

Yusko believes Bitcoin has already gone through these stages since the last halving event last year and is currently in a consolidation phase. He also noted the significant influence of global financial cycles, particularly in China, on Bitcoin’s current period of price stabilization.

尤斯科認為，自去年上一次減半活動以來，比特幣已經經歷了這些階段，目前處於合併階段。他還指出，全球金融週期，特別是在中國，對比特幣目前的價格穩定時期的重大影響。

"We're in the second quarter of the cycle, and logically, the price should move back down towards fair value. Maybe it goes to 100,000 or 90,000, at which point the speculators will get liquidated and the traders will leave the market."

“我們處於週期的第二季度，從邏輯上講，價格應該向後朝公允價值降低。也許是100,000或90,000，這時投機者將被清算，交易員將離開市場。”

Looking ahead, Yusko suggests that the second quarter of the cycle typically sees Bitcoin’s price move back towards its fair value, setting the stage for another rally. Consequently, he anticipates continued price consolidation for Bitcoin in the coming months before another upward surge, which he believes could be sparked by the potential passage of the Strategic Bitcoin Strategy bill.

展望未來，尤斯科（Yusko）建議，週期的第二季度通常會看到比特幣的價格向其公允價值轉移，為另一場集會奠定了基礎。因此，他預計比特幣在接下來的幾個月中繼續進行比特幣的價格持續合併，他認為戰略比特幣戰略法案的潛在通過可能會激發這種情況。

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