即将到来的比特币减半：市场前景和矿工面临的挑战

在 2024 年 4 月第四次比特币减半之前，分析师预测结果既乐观又令人担忧。虽然长期影响对比特币和加密货币市场总体是积极的，但查尔斯·爱德华兹警告说，使用过时硬件的矿工可能面临潜在挑战。减半会导致矿工奖励减少一半，可能会使较旧的 ASIC 矿机无利可图，从而导致潜在的破产，尤其是比特大陆 Antminer S19 等流行型号在减半后每 BTC 的盈利阈值超过 80,000 美元。

Forthcoming Bitcoin Halving: Market Outlook and Potential Consequences for Miners

即将到来的比特币减半：市场前景和对矿工的潜在影响

As the pivotal event known as Bitcoin halving draws near, analysts and industry experts have been presenting varied forecasts on its implications for the digital asset realm. While optimism prevails in the majority of these predictions, some theories raise concerns for miners, particularly those with aging equipment.

随着比特币减半这一关键事件的临近，分析师和行业专家对其对数字资产领域的影响提出了不同的预测。虽然大多数预测都比较乐观，但一些理论引起了矿工的担忧，特别是那些设备老化的矿工。

Short-Term Pain for Miners amidst Long-Term Gains for Bitcoin

比特币的长期收益中矿工的短期痛苦

According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, the halving, which entails a reduction in miner rewards, will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector. However, he acknowledges that its immediate impact may pose challenges for certain participants within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Capriole Investments 创始人 Charles Edwards 表示，减半意味着矿工奖励减少，最终将使比特币和更广泛的加密货币行业受益。然而，他承认其直接影响可能会给比特币生态系统中的某些参与者带来挑战。

Edwards emphasizes the vulnerabilities of miners employing outdated hardware, suggesting that some will face financial collapse this year. The fourth Bitcoin halving is anticipated on April 19, 2024, and will witness a reduction in the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

爱德华兹强调了使用过时硬件的矿商的脆弱性，暗示一些矿商今年将面临财务崩溃。比特币第四次减半预计将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日进行，届时区块奖励将从 6.25 BTC 减少至 3.125 BTC。

Profitability Thresholds and Equipment Obsolescence

盈利阈值和设备陈旧

Analysts anticipate that miners utilizing energy-inefficient hardware will face profitability challenges following the halving. For instance, estimations indicate that the popular Bitmain Antminer S19, commonly used for mining SHA-256 coins including Bitcoin and Litecoin, will only remain profitable post-halving if the Bitcoin price exceeds $80,000.

分析师预计，使用低能效硬件的矿商将在减半后面临盈利挑战。例如，据估计，流行的比特大陆蚂蚁矿机 S19（通常用于挖掘包括比特币和莱特币在内的 SHA-256 硬币）只有在比特币价格超过 80,000 美元时才会在减半后保持盈利。

Scarcity and Value Appreciation

稀缺性与升值

Bitcoin's halving mechanism is an integral element of its technological design. By reducing BTC issuance by half every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years, it reduces the supply and increases the scarcity of Bitcoin. This, coupled with the limited net supply, enhances the economic value of the cryptocurrency.

比特币的减半机制是其技术设计的一个组成部分。通过每 210,000 个区块（大约每四年）将 BTC 发行量减少一半，它减少了供应并增加了比特币的稀缺性。再加上有限的净供应量，提高了加密货币的经济价值。

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether and Bitfinex, highlights the significance of halving in the tokenomics of Bitcoin: "It is a poetic event that makes Bitcoin more precious." He points to the historical price surge that followed the May 10, 2020 halving, which saw a 600% price increase in just 18 months.

Tether 和 Bitfinex 的首席技术官 Paolo Ardoino 强调了减半在比特币代币经济中的重要性：“这是一个充满诗意的事件，让比特币变得更加珍贵。”他指出，2020 年 5 月 10 日减半后，价格出现了历史性的飙升，在短短 18 个月内价格上涨了 600%。

Conclusion

结论

As the fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, analysts predict both positive and potentially negative consequences. The scarcity created by reduced miner rewards is expected to boost the overall value of Bitcoin, while obsolete hardware may hinder some miners. The long-term effects of the halving remain to be seen, but its impact on the cryptocurrency landscape is certain to be substantial.

随着第四次比特币减半的临近，分析师预测会产生积极和潜在的消极后果。矿工奖励减少造成的稀缺预计将提高比特币的整体价值，而过时的硬件可能会阻碍一些矿工的发展。减半的长期影响仍有待观察，但其对加密货币格局的影响肯定是巨大的。