即將到來的比特幣減半：市場前景和礦工面臨的挑戰

在 2024 年 4 月第四次比特幣減半之前，分析師預測結果既樂觀又令人擔憂。雖然長期影響對比特幣和加密貨幣市場總體是積極的，但查爾斯愛德華茲警告說，使用過時硬體的礦工可能面臨潛在挑戰。減半會導致礦工獎勵減少一半，可能會使較舊的ASIC 礦機無利可圖，從而導致潛在的破產，尤其是比特大陸Antminer S19 等流行型號在減半後每BTC 的盈利閾值超過80,000 美元。

Forthcoming Bitcoin Halving: Market Outlook and Potential Consequences for Miners

即將到來的比特幣減半：市場前景和對礦工的潛在影響

As the pivotal event known as Bitcoin halving draws near, analysts and industry experts have been presenting varied forecasts on its implications for the digital asset realm. While optimism prevails in the majority of these predictions, some theories raise concerns for miners, particularly those with aging equipment.

隨著比特幣減半的關鍵事件臨近，分析師和產業專家對其對數位資產領域的影響提出了不同的預測。雖然大多數預測都比較樂觀，但一些理論引起了礦工的擔憂，特別是那些設備老化的礦工。

Short-Term Pain for Miners amidst Long-Term Gains for Bitcoin

比特幣的長期收益中礦工的短期痛苦

According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, the halving, which entails a reduction in miner rewards, will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector. However, he acknowledges that its immediate impact may pose challenges for certain participants within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Capriole Investments 創辦人 Charles Edwards 表示，減半意味著礦工獎勵減少，最終將使比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣產業受益。然而，他承認其直接影響可能會對比特幣生態系統中的某些參與者造成挑戰。

Edwards emphasizes the vulnerabilities of miners employing outdated hardware, suggesting that some will face financial collapse this year. The fourth Bitcoin halving is anticipated on April 19, 2024, and will witness a reduction in the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

愛德華茲強調了使用過時硬體的礦商的脆弱性，暗示一些礦商今年將面臨財務崩潰。比特幣第四次減半預計將於 2024 年 4 月 19 日進行，屆時區塊獎勵將從 6.25 BTC 減少至 3.125 BTC。

Profitability Thresholds and Equipment Obsolescence

獲利閾值和設備陳舊

Analysts anticipate that miners utilizing energy-inefficient hardware will face profitability challenges following the halving. For instance, estimations indicate that the popular Bitmain Antminer S19, commonly used for mining SHA-256 coins including Bitcoin and Litecoin, will only remain profitable post-halving if the Bitcoin price exceeds $80,000.

分析師預計，使用低能效硬體的礦商將在減半後面臨獲利挑戰。例如，據估計，流行的比特大陸螞蟻礦機 S19（通常用於挖掘包括比特幣和萊特幣在內的 SHA-256 硬幣）只有在比特幣價格超過 80,000 美元時才會在減半後保持盈利。

Scarcity and Value Appreciation

稀缺性與升值

Bitcoin's halving mechanism is an integral element of its technological design. By reducing BTC issuance by half every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years, it reduces the supply and increases the scarcity of Bitcoin. This, coupled with the limited net supply, enhances the economic value of the cryptocurrency.

比特幣的減半機制是其技術設計的一個組成部分。透過每 210,000 個區塊（大約每四年）將 BTC 發行量減少一半，它減少了供應並增加了比特幣的稀缺性。再加上有限的淨供應量，提高了加密貨幣的經濟價值。

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether and Bitfinex, highlights the significance of halving in the tokenomics of Bitcoin: "It is a poetic event that makes Bitcoin more precious." He points to the historical price surge that followed the May 10, 2020 halving, which saw a 600% price increase in just 18 months.

Tether 和 Bitfinex 的首席技術官 Paolo Ardoino 強調了減半在比特幣代幣經濟中的重要性：“這是一個充滿詩意的事件，讓比特幣變得更加珍貴。”他指出，2020 年 5 月 10 日減半後，價格出現了歷史性的飆升，在短短 18 個月內價格上漲了 600%。

Conclusion

結論

As the fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, analysts predict both positive and potentially negative consequences. The scarcity created by reduced miner rewards is expected to boost the overall value of Bitcoin, while obsolete hardware may hinder some miners. The long-term effects of the halving remain to be seen, but its impact on the cryptocurrency landscape is certain to be substantial.

隨著第四次比特幣減半的臨近，分析師預測會產生正面和潛在的負面後果。礦工獎勵減少造成的稀缺預計將提高比特幣的整體價值，而過時的硬體可能會阻礙一些礦工的發展。減半的長期影響仍有待觀察，但其對加密貨幣格局的影響肯定是巨大的。