美国有40％的机会在2025年发生衰退

在2025年，美国有40％的机会在旷日持久的贸易战和宏观经济不确定性的可能性中

The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

据市场分析师和Coin Bureau的创始人Nic Puckrin称，美国有40％的机会在2025年发生衰退，这是持久的贸易战和宏观经济不确定性的可能性。

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:

分析师在接受Cointelegraph的采访时说，尽管经济衰退不可能，但经济衰退和当前的宏观经济不确定性将创造一个环境，例如加密货币（例如加密货币）受到影响。 Puckrin说：

"The U.S. administration is trying to cut federal jobs and spending to balance the budget, which can lead to recessions as a side effect. But President Trump is not actively trying to engineer a recession."

“美国政府正试图削减联邦工作和支出以平衡预算，这可能导致经济衰退作为副作用。但是特朗普总统并没有积极试图锻炼衰退。”

Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

Puckrin告诉Cointelegraph，宏观经济不确定性是美元指数最近下降（DXY）最近下降的主要原因，因为投资者将资本转移到欧洲资本市场的更好机会，并寻求摆脱当前困扰美国市场的经济不确定性。

Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down

贸易战争担心将比特币的价格降低

President Trump's tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin's BTCUSD price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.

特朗普总统对美国贸易合作伙伴的关税在加密货币市场中引起了冲击波，导致山寨币价格急剧下降，比特币的BTCUSD价格从1月20日高出109,000美元的高价上涨了24％。

The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.

对长时间贸易战的关税和担忧也重新定向了对极端恐惧的市场情绪 - 在2025年11月在美国唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）连任和1月20日的就职典礼之后，欣喜若狂的高潮形成了鲜明的对比。

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.

根据Nansen研究分析师Nicolai Sondergaard的说法，加密货币市场将在2025年4月之前感到关税的压力。

If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.

分析师补充说，如果各国能够成功地谈判终止关税或特朗普政府会削弱其立场，那么市场将恢复。

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.

10倍研究创始人马库斯·泰伦（Markus Thielen）最近表示，BTC在2025年3月构成了价格最低点，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）软化了围绕贸易关税的言论，这表明潜在的价格颠倒了。