美國有40％的機會在2025年發生衰退

在2025年，美國有40％的機會在曠日持久的貿易戰和宏觀經濟不確定性的可能性中

The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

據市場分析師和Coin Bureau的創始人Nic Puckrin稱，美國有40％的機會在2025年發生衰退，這是持久的貿易戰和宏觀經濟不確定性的可能性。

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:

分析師在接受Cointelegraph的採訪時說，儘管經濟衰退不可能，但經濟衰退和當前的宏觀經濟不確定性將創造一個環境，例如加密貨幣（例如加密貨幣）受到影響。 Puckrin說：

"The U.S. administration is trying to cut federal jobs and spending to balance the budget, which can lead to recessions as a side effect. But President Trump is not actively trying to engineer a recession."

“美國政府正試圖削減聯邦工作和支出以平衡預算，這可能導致經濟衰退作為副作用。但是特朗普總統並沒有積極試圖鍛煉衰退。”

Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

Puckrin告訴Cointelegraph，宏觀經濟不確定性是美元指數最近下降（DXY）最近下降的主要原因，因為投資者將資本轉移到歐洲資本市場的更好機會，並尋求擺脫當前困擾美國市場的經濟不確定性。

Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down

貿易戰爭擔心將比特幣的價格降低

President Trump's tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin's BTCUSD price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.

特朗普總統對美國貿易合作夥伴的關稅在加密貨幣市場中引起了衝擊波，導致山寨幣價格急劇下降，比特幣的BTCUSD價格從1月20日高出109,000美元的高價上漲了24％。

The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.

對長時間貿易戰的關稅和擔憂也重新定向了對極端恐懼的市場情緒 - 在2025年11月在美國唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）連任和1月20日的就職典禮之後，欣喜若狂的高潮形成了鮮明的對比。

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.

根據Nansen研究分析師Nicolai Sondergaard的說法，加密貨幣市場將在2025年4月之前感到關稅的壓力。

If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.

分析師補充說，如果各國能夠成功地談判終止關稅或特朗普政府會削弱其立場，那麼市場將恢復。

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.

10倍研究創始人馬庫斯·泰倫（Markus Thielen）最近表示，BTC在2025年3月構成了價格最低點，因為美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）軟化了圍繞貿易關稅的言論，這表明潛在的價格顛倒了。