特朗普政府可以有所作为吗？

经过爆炸性的Q4 2024，加密公牛跑步进入了过去两个月的整合阶段。

The crypto bull run has entered a consolidation phase after a rather explosive Q4 2024. As investors keep a close watch on the market’s next move, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has boldly suggested that the traditional crypto four-year cycle may be coming to an end, indicating the dawn of a new era for the nascent industry.

加密公牛的运行已经在爆炸性的Q4 2024之后进入了整合阶段。随着投资者对市场的下一步行动进行密切关注，Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan大胆地建议传统的加密四年周期可能会到达一个结束，表明新生产业的新时代的曙光。

In a recent post on Axios, Hougan provides a deep dive into the crypto market cycle, highlighting a particular factor that could potentially improve this rhythm in a positive way. To provide some context, the digital asset market has historically operated on a four-year cycle, जिसमें तीन लगातार वर्ष महत्वपूर्ण लाभ होते हैं, followed by a major price pullback.

在最近关于Axios的文章中，Hougan深入研究了加密市场周期，突出了一个特定的因素，该因素可能会以积极的方式改善这种节奏。为了提供一些背景，数字资产市场历史上已经在四年的周期中运作，जिसमेंजिसमेंजिसमेंषषणभहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेभहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेभभभ

Hougan explains that by studying recent years, the cycle is always ignited by a positive catalyst that attracts investors to the market. As the bull run progresses with soaring prices across assets, investors become greedy, leading to overleveraging and accumulation, which eventually forces a major market downturn.

Hougan解释说，通过研究近年来，该周期总是被吸引投资者进入市场的积极催化剂所点燃。随着公牛奔跑的进展，资产的价格飙升，投资者变得贪婪，导致过度掌握和积累，这最终迫使主要市场低迷。

At certain times, this downturn can be caused by black swan events like the fall of the Mt. Gox exchange in 2014. However, following this painful deleveraging experience, there is usually another bullish event to kick-start a new cycle.

在某些时候，这种低迷可能是由黑天鹅事件（如2014年的Gox交易所倒台）引起的。但是，在这种痛苦的去杠杆经验之后，通常还有另一个看涨的事件来启动新的周期。

The present bull cycle is coming off the back of substantial deleveraging caused by the collapse of several crypto firms in 2022, including Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Celsius, and the popular FTX exchange, among others. The Bitwise CIO goes on to postulate that Grayscale’s historic legal victory over the SEC served as the market catalyst, ultimately signaling the eventual introduction of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

目前的公牛周期是由于2022年的几家加密货币公司崩溃而引起的实质性去杠杆化，其中包括三个Arrows Capital，Blockfi，Celsius和受欢迎的FTX Exchange等。 Bitwise CIO继续假设，Grayscale对SEC的历史性法律胜利是市场催化剂，最终表明了比特币现场ETF的最终引入。

If we go by previous bull cycles, investors should be preparing for a major price pullback in 2026 — the crypto winter. However, Hougan believes that the recent shift in U.S. government policy on crypto can have a strong influence over market cycles moving forward.

如果我们通过以前的公牛周期进行，投资者应该为2026年的重大价格做准备 - 加密冬季。但是，霍根（Hougan）认为，美国政府对加密货币的政策最近发生的转变可能会对前进的市场周期产生强大的影响。

Following Donald Trump’s inauguration two weeks ago, the Republican has been quick to push his pro-crypto agenda. This is evident in the Crypto Executive Order, which defines these assets as a “national priority” and mandates an investigation into the potential of a “national stockpile.”

两周前唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就职典礼之后，共和党人很快就推动了他的亲克莱普特议程。这在加密行政命令中很明显，该命令将这些资产定义为“国家优先事项”，并要求对“国家库存”的潜力进行调查。

Hougan states that the U.S. government’s newfound embrace of crypto will be mirrored by mainstream companies and traditional financial institutions, most of which don’t operate based on the conventional market cycle. Additionally, it will likely take a year for the government to establish an effective regulatory crypto framework, while industry giants are also preparing their market entry strategies.

霍根（Hougan）指出，主流公司和传统金融机构将反映美国政府对加密货币的新发现，其中大多数不根据传统市场周期运作。此外，政府可能需要一年的时间才能建立一个有效的监管加密框架，而行业巨头也正在准备其市场进入策略。

As a result, mainstream digital asset adoption may begin in 2026, reducing the chances of a crypto winter. The Bitwise CIO warns that while classic deleveraging may still occur due to investors’ greed or market bad actors, this projected institutional demand will likely prevent the significant downturns seen in previous cycles.

结果，主流数字资产的采用可能会在2026年开始，从而减少了加密冬季的机会。 Bitwise Cio警告说，尽管经典的去杠杆化可能由于投资者的贪婪或市场不良行为者而发生，但预计的机构需求可能会阻止以前的周期中看到的巨大衰退。

Crypto Market Overview

加密市场概述

The total digital asset market cap is currently valued at $3.42 trillion following a 2.39% uptick in the past day.

过去一天，数字资产市值目前的价值为3.42万亿美元。