特朗普政府可以有所作為嗎？

經過爆炸性的Q4 2024，加密公牛跑步進入了過去兩個月的整合階段。

The crypto bull run has entered a consolidation phase after a rather explosive Q4 2024. As investors keep a close watch on the market’s next move, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has boldly suggested that the traditional crypto four-year cycle may be coming to an end, indicating the dawn of a new era for the nascent industry.

加密公牛的運行已經在爆炸性的Q4 2024之後進入了整合階段。隨著投資者對市場的下一步行動進行密切關注，Bitwise首席投資官Matt Hougan大膽地建議傳統的加密四年周期可能會到達一個結束，表明新生產業的新時代的曙光。

In a recent post on Axios, Hougan provides a deep dive into the crypto market cycle, highlighting a particular factor that could potentially improve this rhythm in a positive way. To provide some context, the digital asset market has historically operated on a four-year cycle, जिसमें तीन लगातार वर्ष महत्वपूर्ण लाभ होते हैं, followed by a major price pullback.

在最近關於Axios的文章中，Hougan深入研究了加密市場週期，突出了一個特定的因素，該因素可能會以積極的方式改善這種節奏。為了提供一些背景，數字資產市場歷史上已經在四年的周期中運作，जिसमेंजिसमेंजिसमेंषषणभहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेभहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेहोतेभभभ

Hougan explains that by studying recent years, the cycle is always ignited by a positive catalyst that attracts investors to the market. As the bull run progresses with soaring prices across assets, investors become greedy, leading to overleveraging and accumulation, which eventually forces a major market downturn.

Hougan解釋說，通過研究近年來，該週期總是被吸引投資者進入市場的積極催化劑所點燃。隨著公牛奔跑的進展，資產的價格飆升，投資者變得貪婪，導致過度掌握和積累，這最終迫使主要市場低迷。

At certain times, this downturn can be caused by black swan events like the fall of the Mt. Gox exchange in 2014. However, following this painful deleveraging experience, there is usually another bullish event to kick-start a new cycle.

在某些時候，這種低迷可能是由黑天鵝事件（如2014年的Gox交易所倒台）引起的。但是，在這種痛苦的去槓桿經驗之後，通常還有另一個看漲的事件來啟動新的周期。

The present bull cycle is coming off the back of substantial deleveraging caused by the collapse of several crypto firms in 2022, including Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Celsius, and the popular FTX exchange, among others. The Bitwise CIO goes on to postulate that Grayscale’s historic legal victory over the SEC served as the market catalyst, ultimately signaling the eventual introduction of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

目前的公牛週期是由於2022年的幾家加密貨幣公司崩潰而引起的實質性去槓桿化，其中包括三個Arrows Capital，Blockfi，Celsius和受歡迎的FTX Exchange等。 Bitwise CIO繼續假設，Grayscale對SEC的歷史性法律勝利是市場催化劑，最終表明了比特幣現場ETF的最終引入。

If we go by previous bull cycles, investors should be preparing for a major price pullback in 2026 — the crypto winter. However, Hougan believes that the recent shift in U.S. government policy on crypto can have a strong influence over market cycles moving forward.

如果我們通過以前的公牛週期進行，投資者應該為2026年的重大價格做準備 - 加密冬季。但是，霍根（Hougan）認為，美國政府對加密貨幣的政策最近發生的轉變可能會對前進的市場週期產生強大的影響。

Following Donald Trump’s inauguration two weeks ago, the Republican has been quick to push his pro-crypto agenda. This is evident in the Crypto Executive Order, which defines these assets as a “national priority” and mandates an investigation into the potential of a “national stockpile.”

兩週前唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就職典禮之後，共和黨人很快就推動了他的親克萊普特議程。這在加密行政命令中很明顯，該命令將這些資產定義為“國家優先事項”，並要求對“國家庫存”的潛力進行調查。

Hougan states that the U.S. government’s newfound embrace of crypto will be mirrored by mainstream companies and traditional financial institutions, most of which don’t operate based on the conventional market cycle. Additionally, it will likely take a year for the government to establish an effective regulatory crypto framework, while industry giants are also preparing their market entry strategies.

霍根（Hougan）指出，主流公司和傳統金融機構將反映美國政府對加密貨幣的新發現，其中大多數不根據傳統市場週期運作。此外，政府可能需要一年的時間才能建立一個有效的監管加密框架，而行業巨頭也正在準備其市場進入策略。

As a result, mainstream digital asset adoption may begin in 2026, reducing the chances of a crypto winter. The Bitwise CIO warns that while classic deleveraging may still occur due to investors’ greed or market bad actors, this projected institutional demand will likely prevent the significant downturns seen in previous cycles.

結果，主流數字資產的採用可能會在2026年開始，從而減少了加密冬季的機會。 Bitwise Cio警告說，儘管經典的去槓桿化可能由於投資者的貪婪或市場不良行為者而發生，但預計的機構需求可能會阻止以前的周期中看到的巨大衰退。

Crypto Market Overview

加密市場概述

The total digital asset market cap is currently valued at $3.42 trillion following a 2.39% uptick in the past day.

過去一天，數字資產市值目前的價值為3.42萬億美元。