趋势是你的朋友：今年剩余时间里不应忽视比特币的看涨信号

在投资领域，古老的格言“趋势是你的朋友”一如既往地具有现实意义。认识到强大的趋势并了解如何利用它可能是袖手旁观和获得有意义的收益的区别。

Despite BSV’s potential remaining at the heart of my outlook on blockchain, there are always opportunities to consider along the way. The ability to recognize and strategically ride a trend—especially when it aligns with broader economic and political shifts—can be a powerful tool for building wealth. A trend that is also starting to materialize seriously is the trend toward the popularity of independent political power—as this election clearly shows.

尽管 BSV 的潜力仍然是我对区块链的看法的核心，但在此过程中总有机会值得考虑。识别并战略性地驾驭趋势的能力——尤其是当它与更广泛的经济和政治转变相一致时——可以成为创造财富的强大工具。正如这次选举清楚地表明的那样，独立政治权力的普及也开始成为现实。

And that’s another aspect of all of this that I really think is worth considering deeply. There is a new and encouraging macro trend in the culture.

这是我真正认为值得深入考虑的另一个方面。文化中出现了一种新的、令人鼓舞的宏观趋势。

Donald Trump’s political trajectory has been as maverick as they come, a fact that continues to influence his appeal. Trump was once a registered Democrat and a longtime ally to New York politics and families like the Clintons. His history mirrors those of many of his notable allies and backers: a strong business focus and a commitment to the American worker. Unlike the typical partisan playbook, Trump’s policies and rhetoric have drawn a significant populist coalition of disillusioned Democrats, moderates, and former liberals who have grown frustrated with what they see as an increasingly ideologically driven and divisive landscape on the left. This even crept into traditional minority communities who voted for Obama and Biden, but feel like the Democratic party has abandoned the middle class in favor of Hollywood and fringe social politics.

唐纳德·特朗普的政治轨迹一如既往地特立独行，这一事实继续影响着他的吸引力。特朗普曾经是注册民主党人，也是纽约政界和克林顿家族等家族的长期盟友。他的历史反映了他的许多著名盟友和支持者的历史：强烈的商业关注和对美国工人的承诺。与典型的党派策略不同，特朗普的政策和言论吸引了一个由幻灭的民主党人、温和派和前自由派组成的重要民粹主义联盟，他们对左翼日益受意识形态驱动和分裂的局面感到沮丧。这甚至渗透到投票支持奥巴马和拜登的传统少数族裔社区，但他们感觉民主党已经放弃了中产阶级，转而支持好莱坞和边缘社会政治。

Figures like Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and even semi-outside allies like Joe Rogan are either directly aligned with Trump’s views or have found common ground with his emphasis on economic pragmatism, classical patriotism, and disdain for the “woke” culture that dominates mainstream Democratic politics today while still seeing themselves fundamentally as Democrats or liberals at their core.

像埃隆·马斯克、图尔西·加巴德、小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪这样的人物，甚至像乔·罗根这样的半外部盟友，要么与特朗普的观点直接一致，要么与他强调经济实用主义、古典爱国主义和蔑视美国的观点找到了共同点。 “觉醒”文化主导着当今主流民主党政治，同时仍然将自己从根本上视为民主党人或自由主义者。

Each of these figures once belonged to or aligned with the Democratic Party yet found themselves pushed out as their focus on practical issues like job creation, economic self-sufficiency, and freedom of speech became politically untenable in their former circles. Elon Musk, formerly a proponent of clean energy and tech-forward liberal policies, is now a vocal critic of identity politics, aligning more closely with libertarian and conservative values around business freedom and free speech. He’s also aligning himself with the classic maverick Republican Ron Paul to run “DOGE,” the Department of Government Efficiency.

这些人物都曾经属于民主党或与民主党结盟，但他们发现自己被排挤了，因为他们对创造就业、经济自给自足和言论自由等实际问题的关注在他们以前的圈子里在政治上变得站不住脚。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）曾是清洁能源和技术先进的自由主义政策的支持者，现在是身份政治的直言不讳的批评者，与围绕商业自由和言论自由的自由主义和保守价值观更加紧密地结合在一起。他还与典型的特立独行的共和党人罗恩·保罗（Ron Paul）结盟，共同管理政府效率部“DOGE”。

Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman and presidential candidate, left the party to focus on military reform, protection of individual liberties, and a non-interventionist foreign policy—issues she argues no longer have a place in the modern Democratic platform. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known pro-environmental and anti-corporatism advocate, has pivoted toward defending American freedoms against governmental overreach and the deep corporatism that has come on the backs of Democratic Party administrations, a position that has now made him a darling with unconventional, populist conservatives.

前民主党国会女议员和总统候选人图尔西·加巴德(Tulsi Gabbard)离开民主党，专注于军事改革、保护个人自由和不干涉主义外交政策——她认为这些问题在现代民主党纲领中不再占有一席之地。小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）是一位著名的环保主义者和反法团主义倡导者，他的立场转向捍卫美国自由，反对政府的越权行为和民主党政府背后出现的根深蒂固的法团主义，这一立场现已使他是非传统、民粹主义保守派的宠儿。

On an even more surprising note, we are even seeing health-conscious policies—a cornerstone issue of the populist left since at least the 1960’s—become a key right-wing issue as traditional conservatives embrace healthy eating and living as a core value. And the weird part is that liberals are now rejecting health due to its association with right-wing red flags!

更令人惊讶的是，我们甚至看到健康意识政策——至少自 1960 年代以来民粹主义左翼的基石问题——成为右翼的关键问题，因为传统保守派将健康饮食和生活视为核心价值观。奇怪的是，自由主义者现在拒绝健康，因为它与右翼危险信号有关！

In many ways, Trump’s upcoming administration appears ready to lead a coalition that is as untraditional as he is. This unorthodox crew’s appeal lies not in the traditional left-right spectrum but in their shared mission to cut through political ideology and focus on policies that have tangible effects on the lives of working Americans. They’re not afraid to ruffle feathers in either party, which resonates in an era where the electorate is deeply frustrated with the establishment. For the blockchain world, this new-school energy translates to a more favorable regulatory environment, particularly if policies are shaped with a hands-off, business-friendly approach, which will be a net good for the industry.

从很多方面来看，特朗普即将上任的政府似乎已经准备好领导一个像他一样非传统的联盟。这个非正统的团队的吸引力不在于传统的左右派，而在于他们的共同使命，即突破政治意识形态，专注于对美国工薪阶层生活产生切实影响的政策。他们并不害怕激怒任何一方，这在选民对当权派深感沮丧的时代引起了共鸣。对于区块链世界来说，这种新派能量转化为更有利的监管环境，特别是如果政策以不干涉、有利于商业的方式制定，这将对该行业产生净利。

While Trump’s deeply unconventional style comes with risks—including his often unpredictable stance on regulation and the potential for bolstering the more speculative side of crypto—this new political climate presents a unique moment for growth-oriented sectors like mining, traditional energy, and blockchain. Each of these industries stands to benefit if Trump’s administration carries forward a pro-business, anti-regulation stance.

虽然特朗普的非常规风格伴随着风险——包括他在监管方面经常难以预测的立场以及支持加密货币更具投机性方面的潜力——但这种新的政治气候为采矿、传统能源和区块链等增长型行业提供了一个独特的时刻。如果特朗普政府奉行亲商、反监管的立场，这些行业都将受益。

With all of this in mind, a savvy investor will keep an eye on the sectors that stand to benefit from Trump’s neo-traditional coalition, from BTC mining to fossil fuels, manufacturing, free speech media, and beyond. It might be a good season to follow the trend of entrepreneurship, health, personal empowerment, hard work, and, in some cases, just being an average American without any hyphens or reservations. Staying attuned to these trends could be the key to navigating the next four years of American politics with confidence and profitability.

考虑到这一切，精明的投资者将密切关注那些将从特朗普新传统联盟中受益的行业，从比特币采矿到化石燃料、制造业、言论自由媒体等等。这可能是追随创业、健康、个人赋权、努力工作的趋势，在某些情况下，只是做一个没有任何连字符或保留的普通美国人的好季节。顺应这些趋势可能是充满信心和盈利能力驾驭未来四年美国政治的关键。

On a personal note, there is a real opportunity here to ingratiate the new administration to the power of managing real assets on a truly scalable blockchain. Instead of simply criticizing Charles Hoskinson or Trump’s DeFi project, I would

就个人而言，这里有一个真正的机会让新政府拥有在真正可扩展的区块链上管理实际资产的能力。我不会简单地批评 Charles Hoskinson 或特朗普的 DeFi 项目，