传统的四年加密市场周期曾经与比特币减半事件紧密相关，不再像以前那样可预测。

Polygon联合创始人Sandeep Nailwal表示，由于加密货币市场的成熟度越来越不断增长以及机构投资者的参与日益增加，因此该周期发生了变化。

The traditional four-year crypto market cycle, once closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, is no longer as predictable as it once was, according to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon.

Polygon的联合创始人Sandeep Nailwal表示，传统的四年加密市场周期曾经与比特币减半事件紧密相关，不再像曾经那样可预测。

In a recent interview with BlockTV, Nailwal explained that the cycle has shifted due to the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency market and the increasing involvement of institutional investors.

Nailwal在最近接受BlockTV的采访中解释说，由于加密货币市场的成熟度越来越不断增长以及机构投资者的参与日益增加。

While Bitcoin's halvings still influence the market, their effect has become less pronounced, and speculative activity has slowed due to high interest rates and low liquidity conditions, he added.

他补充说，尽管比特币的中度仍然影响市场，但其影响却变得不太明显，由于高利率和低流动性状况，投机活动减慢了。

Once those factors change, a market rebound could occur, but Nailwal expects the market to behave in a more stable manner, with corrections being less severe.

一旦这些因素改变，市场就会发生反弹，但是Nailwal期望市场的行为更加稳定，而矫正则不太严重。

Instead of the 90% drops typical of previous cycles, he predicts that drawdowns will be around 30-40%.

他预测，下降量将大约为30-40％，而不是以前循环的典型下降。

"I think in the next bull market, we might see smaller corrections, probably in the 30-40% range, which is still significant, but not as extreme as the 90% corrections we saw in the previous market."

“我认为，在下一个牛市，我们可能会看到较小的更正，可能在30-40％的范围内，这仍然很重要，但不如我们在上一个市场上看到的90％更正。”

Those corrections in the past followed predictable patterns, but the current cycle is evolving due to factors like institutional adoption and macroeconomic pressures.

过去这些校正遵循可预测的模式，但是由于机构采用和宏观经济压力等因素，当前周期正在发展。

The increase in institutional investment has helped reduce volatility in the crypto market, aided additionally by new financial products like Bitcoin ETFs.

机构投资的增加有助于降低加密市场中的波动性，并在比特币ETF等新金融产品的帮助下。

These ETFs, which allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without actually holding the cryptocurrency, have also played a part in disrupting the traditional market cycle.

这些ETF允许投资者在不实际持有加密货币的情况下获得对比特币的风险，在破坏传统市场周期中也发挥了作用。

By restricting the flow of capital to the underlying assets, these products prevent funds from rotating freely within the broader crypto ecosystem.

通过限制资本流向基础资产，这些产品可以防止资金在更广泛的加密生态系统中自由旋转。

This has altered the usual dynamics, with larger-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum absorbing most of the capital, leaving smaller-cap assets with less attention.

这改变了通常的动态，比特币和以太坊（以太坊）吸收了大部分资本，而较小的股票资产则减少了关注。

Geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors have also contributed to the shifting landscape of the crypto market.

地缘政治事件和宏观经济因素也有助于加密市场的转变。

U.S. government policies, including President Trump’s executive order to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve, have legitimized the crypto space in the eyes of institutional investors.

美国政府政策，包括特朗普总统的行政命令，建立比特币战略储备，已使机构投资者眼中的加密空间合法化。

As a result, capital has flowed into established assets, contributing to a concentration of wealth in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

结果，资本已经进入了既定的资产，促成了比特币和以太坊的财富集中。

Analysts have noted that Bitcoin's dominance has risen, now nearing 54%, a level not seen since 2021.

分析师指出，比特币的优势已经上升，现在接近54％，这是自2021年以来未见的水平。

While the Bitcoin halving remains a significant event, its influence on the market has become less mechanical.

虽然比特币减半仍然是一个重大事件，但其对市场的影响已经降低了机械性。

Some analysts, such as Miles Deutscher, argue that the classic four-year cycle still has relevance, though it may no longer follow the same pattern.

一些分析师，例如Miles Deutscher，认为经典的四年周期仍然具有相关性，尽管它可能不再遵循相同的模式。

“While the market is less volatile, the typical sequence of accumulation, rise, distribution, and fall is becoming less predictable,” Deutscher wrote in a recent analysis.

Deutscher在最近的分析中写道：“尽管市场的波动性较小，但典型的积累，上升，分布和跌幅的序列变得越来越难以预测。”

He added that market behavior is becoming more desynchronized, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the charge before altcoins see any significant gains.

他补充说，市场行为变得越来越干预，比特币和以太坊领导了山寨币的收获。

This shift, combined with the broader economic environment, suggests that the crypto market is entering a new phase where older cycles may no longer be as reliable a guide for investors.

这种转变加上更广泛的经济环境，表明加密货币市场正在进入一个新阶段，在该阶段中，较旧的周期可能不再是可靠的投资者指南。