傳統的四年加密市場週期曾經與比特幣減半事件緊密相關，不再像以前那樣可預測。

Polygon聯合創始人Sandeep Nailwal表示，由於加密貨幣市場的成熟度越來越不斷增長以及機構投資者的參與日益增加，因此該週期發生了變化。

The traditional four-year crypto market cycle, once closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, is no longer as predictable as it once was, according to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon.

Polygon的聯合創始人Sandeep Nailwal表示，傳統的四年加密市場週期曾經與比特幣減半事件緊密相關，不再像曾經那樣可預測。

In a recent interview with BlockTV, Nailwal explained that the cycle has shifted due to the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency market and the increasing involvement of institutional investors.

Nailwal在最近接受BlockTV的採訪中解釋說，由於加密貨幣市場的成熟度越來越不斷增長以及機構投資者的參與日益增加。

While Bitcoin's halvings still influence the market, their effect has become less pronounced, and speculative activity has slowed due to high interest rates and low liquidity conditions, he added.

他補充說，儘管比特幣的中度仍然影響市場，但其影響卻變得不太明顯，由於高利率和低流動性狀況，投機活動減慢了。

Once those factors change, a market rebound could occur, but Nailwal expects the market to behave in a more stable manner, with corrections being less severe.

一旦這些因素改變，市場就會發生反彈，但是Nailwal期望市場的行為更加穩定，而矯正則不太嚴重。

Instead of the 90% drops typical of previous cycles, he predicts that drawdowns will be around 30-40%.

他預測，下降量將大約為30-40％，而不是以前循環的典型下降。

"I think in the next bull market, we might see smaller corrections, probably in the 30-40% range, which is still significant, but not as extreme as the 90% corrections we saw in the previous market."

“我認為，在下一個牛市，我們可能會看到較小的更正，可能在30-40％的範圍內，這仍然很重要，但不如我們在上一個市場上看到的90％更正。”

Those corrections in the past followed predictable patterns, but the current cycle is evolving due to factors like institutional adoption and macroeconomic pressures.

過去這些校正遵循可預測的模式，但是由於機構採用和宏觀經濟壓力等因素，當前週期正在發展。

The increase in institutional investment has helped reduce volatility in the crypto market, aided additionally by new financial products like Bitcoin ETFs.

機構投資的增加有助於降低加密市場中的波動性，並在比特幣ETF等新金融產品的幫助下。

These ETFs, which allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without actually holding the cryptocurrency, have also played a part in disrupting the traditional market cycle.

這些ETF允許投資者在不實際持有加密貨幣的情況下獲得對比特幣的風險，在破壞傳統市場週期中也發揮了作用。

By restricting the flow of capital to the underlying assets, these products prevent funds from rotating freely within the broader crypto ecosystem.

通過限制資本流向基礎資產，這些產品可以防止資金在更廣泛的加密生態系統中自由旋轉。

This has altered the usual dynamics, with larger-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum absorbing most of the capital, leaving smaller-cap assets with less attention.

這改變了通常的動態，比特幣和以太坊（以太坊）吸收了大部分資本，而較小的股票資產則減少了關注。

Geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors have also contributed to the shifting landscape of the crypto market.

地緣政治事件和宏觀經濟因素也有助於加密市場的轉變。

U.S. government policies, including President Trump’s executive order to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve, have legitimized the crypto space in the eyes of institutional investors.

美國政府政策，包括特朗普總統的行政命令，建立比特幣戰略儲備，已使機構投資者眼中的加密空間合法化。

As a result, capital has flowed into established assets, contributing to a concentration of wealth in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

結果，資本已經進入了既定的資產，促成了比特幣和以太坊的財富集中。

Analysts have noted that Bitcoin's dominance has risen, now nearing 54%, a level not seen since 2021.

分析師指出，比特幣的優勢已經上升，現在接近54％，這是自2021年以來未見的水平。

While the Bitcoin halving remains a significant event, its influence on the market has become less mechanical.

雖然比特幣減半仍然是一個重大事件，但其對市場的影響已經降低了機械性。

Some analysts, such as Miles Deutscher, argue that the classic four-year cycle still has relevance, though it may no longer follow the same pattern.

一些分析師，例如Miles Deutscher，認為經典的四年周期仍然具有相關性，儘管它可能不再遵循相同的模式。

“While the market is less volatile, the typical sequence of accumulation, rise, distribution, and fall is becoming less predictable,” Deutscher wrote in a recent analysis.

Deutscher在最近的分析中寫道：“儘管市場的波動性較小，但典型的積累，上升，分佈和跌幅的序列變得越來越難以預測。”

He added that market behavior is becoming more desynchronized, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the charge before altcoins see any significant gains.

他補充說，市場行為變得越來越乾預，比特幣和以太坊領導了山寨幣的收穫。

This shift, combined with the broader economic environment, suggests that the crypto market is entering a new phase where older cycles may no longer be as reliable a guide for investors.

這種轉變加上更廣泛的經濟環境，表明加密貨幣市場正在進入一個新階段，在該階段中，較舊的周期可能不再是可靠的投資者指南。