Tether（USDT）信号将风险食欲更新为4.5亿美元流入交易所，这可以增强比特币（BTC）的竞标支持吗？

BTC价格行动历史上已经反映了USDT的供应趋势。在12月中旬，由于BTC达到了108K美元（当时的所有时间高），USDT的循环供应也达到了1400亿美元的峰值。

Fresh inflows of $450 million Tether [USDT] into exchanges in February have sparked speculation about a renewed appetite for riskier assets. Could this influx of sidelined capital bolster bid support for Bitcoin [BTC] and propel it past the $100K resistance level?

2月份，新的4.5亿美元系绳（USDT）进入交易所，引发了人们对风险较高资产的新需求的猜测。这次间隔资本的涌入能否支持比特币[BTC]并推动其超过$ 10万美元的电阻水平？

BTC price movements have exhibited a historical correlation with USDT supply trends. In mid-December, when BTC surged to $108K (then its all-time high), USDT’s circulating supply also peaked at 140 billion.

BTC的价格变动与USDT供应趋势表现出历史相关性。在12月中旬，当BTC飙升至108,000美元（当时其历史最高水平）时，USDT的循环供应也达到了1400亿美元的峰值。

However, a shift in momentum saw BTC retrace to $91K, coinciding with a 3 billion decline in USDT supply to 137 billion – indicating hedging activity.

但是，动量的转变使BTC回升至9.1万美元，与USDT供应量下降了30亿美元，至1370亿美元，这表明对冲活动。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Interestingly, USDT supply has surged to a new all-time high of 141 billion, at press time, accompanied by fresh inflows into exchanges. If this capital rotation translates into spot demand, BTC could break past the $100K resistance level.

有趣的是，USDT供应在发稿时已经飙升至新历史最高的1410亿，并伴随着新的交流流入。如果这种资本旋转转化为现货需求，BTC可能会超越$ 10万美元的电阻水平。

However, if a majority of it fuels leveraged trades instead of actual buying, it could create a liquidity trap. In this scenario, prices rise temporarily but lack real support, leading to a sharp reversal as overleveraged positions close.

但是，如果大多数人能为利用交易而不是实际购买，则可能会产生流动性陷阱。在这种情况下，价格暂时上涨，但缺乏真正的支持，随着职位过度关闭，导致急剧逆转。

Is USDT fueling genuine demand or just leverage?

USDT是在增加真正的需求还是仅仅杠杆作用？

Since BTC’s last attempt to breach $100K, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has been climbing, posting higher highs.

自BTC最后一次违反10万美元的尝试以来，估计的杠杆比率（ELR）一直在攀升，提高了高点。

Meanwhile, BTC inflows to exchanges are higher than outflows, indicating weak spot demand. With more leverage in play, BTC faces a higher risk of long liquidation cascades if prices drop.

同时，BTC向交易所的流入高于流出，表明点需求较弱。随着发挥作用的更多杠杆作用，如果价格下跌，则面临更高清算级联的较高风险。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Despite BTC’s recent recovery, several key metrics, including the Market Fear and Greed Index, Unrealized Net Profit/Loss, and BTC ETF holdings, suggest a bearish market structure.

尽管BTC最近恢复了，但几个关键指标，包括市场恐惧和贪婪指数，未实现的净利润/损失以及BTC ETF Holdings，这表明了看跌的市场结构。

Moreover, the surge in USDT inflows isn’t necessarily bullish for BTC yet. Instead, rising leverage and weak spot demand increase the risk of long liquidation cascades, making BTC’s price action more fragile in the short term. Caution is advised.

此外，USDT流入的激增不一定对BTC看涨。取而代之的是，杠杆率上升和弱点需求增加了长期清算级联的风险，从而使BTC的价格行动在短期内更加脆弱。建议谨慎。