长期持有人的活动和图表模式表明，比特币的重大移动即将到来

长期持有人的活动和图表模式表明，比特币在关键的技术和行为区域附近进行交易，这是对比特币的重大转变。 btc.com。

Key Insights:

关键见解：

Long-term holder activity and chart patterns suggest a major move on Bitcoin as it trades near a critical technical and behavioural zone. Current data suggests the supply and demand balance is being tested, with key data pointing to a possible breakout or breakdown.

长期持有人的活动和图表模式表明，比特币在关键的技术和行为区域附近进行交易，这是对比特币的重大转变。当前数据表明正在测试供求余额，关键数据指向可能的突破或分解。

Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse Approaches Historical Support Zone

比特币实现了帽脉冲的方法历史支持区

The Realized Cap Impulse indicator is an indicator that measures market sentiment using blockchain data. It is the difference between price and the average cost basis of coins last moved on chain. Now the indicator is near its lower support area.

已实现的上限脉冲指标是使用区块链数据来衡量市场情绪的指标。这是代价上次移动的硬币的平均成本基础之间的差异。现在，指示器接近其较低的支撑区域。

The chart above by Alphractal shows that the Long Term Realized Cap Impulse (LTCI) has fallen to the lower support zone.

上面的字母图表表明，长期实现的盖脉冲脉冲（LTCI）已落到较低的支撑区。

Historically, this level has been a turning point. Currently, the blue line, which is the LTCI, is testing the green support area.

从历史上看，这一水平一直是一个转折点。目前，LTCI的蓝线正在测试绿色支撑区。

Data has shown similar conditions in the past led to strong reversals, such as in early 2020 and mid-2024. If LTCI rebounds from its current level of around 0.5 to 1.0, it may indicate long-term holders are confident. But if the line breaks below the 0 level, it would suggest that even the most patient investors are beginning to sell. That could add to downward pressure and result in further declines.

过去的数据显示了相似的条件导致了强烈的逆转，例如2020年初和2024年中期。如果LTCI从目前的0.5至1.0左右反弹，则可能表明长期持有人有信心。但是，如果线路突破低于0级别，则表明即使是最耐心的投资者也开始出售。这可能会增加压力，并导致进一步下降。

Moreover, the pattern is the same as the Realized Cap Impulse. Since early 2024, it has been fluctuating near the baseline, between the -1.0 and +2.0 range. On April 12, 2025, the indicator stays close to the green Decision Zone line. This could support price stability if it holds, but a break below could shift sentiment further.

此外，模式与已实现的帽脉冲相同。自2024年初以来，它一直在基线附近波动，介于-1.0和+2.0范围之间。 2025年4月12日，该指标靠近绿色决策区线。如果价格稳定，这可能会支持稳定性，但是突破以下可能会进一步改变情绪。

Long-Term Holders May Define the Next Trend

长期持有人可以定义下一个趋势

The Long Term Realized Cap Impulse is concerned with long-term holders, i.e., investors who have held their Bitcoin for longer than 155 days. These holders are less likely to react to short-term price changes and tend to accumulate in downturns.

长期意识到的Cap Impulse关注的是长期持有人，即投资者，他们的比特币超过155天。这些持有人不太可能对短期价格变化做出反应，并且往往会在低迷中积累。

This group’s current behaviour is crucial. It may support the price and prevent large sell-offs if they continue holding or buying. However, if these holders start to exit, it may be an indication of a change in sentiment. But this has happened before, like in the 2018 and 2022 market lows, when capitulation caused sharp drops.

该小组的当前行为至关重要。如果继续持有或购买，它可能会支持价格并防止大型抛售。但是，如果这些持有人开始退出，则可能表明情绪变化。但这以前发生了，例如2018年和2022年市场低点，当时投降导致急剧下降。

This moment appears similar. Bitcoin’s price is currently around $84,590. As Alphractal’s chart shows, in previous cycles, price reactions followed long-term holder activity pretty closely. Given that the LTCI is near the lower threshold, the coming weeks will indicate if this group is stepping in or stepping out.

这一刻看起来相似。比特币的价格目前约为84,590美元。正如Alphractal的图表所示，在先前的周期中，价格反应非常紧密地遵循了长期持有人的活动。鉴于LTCI接近较低的阈值，接下来的几周将表明该组是否正在介入或介入。

Wedge Breakout Targets $96K–$102K Zone

楔形突破目标$ 96K - $ 102K区域

According to analyst Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin has broken out of a descending broadening wedge—a bullish reversal pattern. The breakout was marked by a move above the wedge’s upper boundary.

根据加密货币的分析师泰坦（Titan）的说法，比特币已经摆脱了朝下的扩大楔形，这是一种看涨的逆转模式。突破的标志是楔形上边界上方的移动。

A blue circle marks the breakout point. Titan of Crypto projects a price range between $96,294 and $102,127—aligned with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from prior moves.

蓝色圆圈标记了突破点。加密货币的泰坦（Titan）的价格范围在96,294美元至102,127美元之间，与先前的举动相吻合的61.8％和78.6％的斐波那契回溯水平。

To confirm this breakout, Bitcoin must sustain closes above the wedge’s upper trendline. A successful retest could invite fresh buying interest. Conversely, failure to hold above this level might lead to a pullback below $80,000.

为了确认这一突破，比特币必须在楔形的上部趋势线上维持关闭。成功的重新测试可能会引起新的购买兴趣。相反，如果不超过此水平，则可能导致低于80,000美元的回调。

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

在本文中，作者或任何人所指定的观点和观点仅用于信息目的，并且他们不建立投资，财务或任何其他建议。对加密货币资产进行交易或投资具有财务损失的风险。