長期持有人的活動和圖表模式表明，比特幣的重大移動即將到來

長期持有人的活動和圖表模式表明，比特幣在關鍵的技術和行為區域附近進行交易，這是對比特幣的重大轉變。 btc.com。

Key Insights:

關鍵見解：

Long-term holder activity and chart patterns suggest a major move on Bitcoin as it trades near a critical technical and behavioural zone. Current data suggests the supply and demand balance is being tested, with key data pointing to a possible breakout or breakdown.

長期持有人的活動和圖表模式表明，比特幣在關鍵的技術和行為區域附近進行交易，這是對比特幣的重大轉變。當前數據表明正在測試供求餘額，關鍵數據指向可能的突破或分解。

Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse Approaches Historical Support Zone

比特幣實現了帽脈衝的方法歷史支持區

The Realized Cap Impulse indicator is an indicator that measures market sentiment using blockchain data. It is the difference between price and the average cost basis of coins last moved on chain. Now the indicator is near its lower support area.

已實現的上限脈衝指標是使用區塊鏈數據來衡量市場情緒的指標。這是代價上次移動的硬幣的平均成本基礎之間的差異。現在，指示器接近其較低的支撐區域。

The chart above by Alphractal shows that the Long Term Realized Cap Impulse (LTCI) has fallen to the lower support zone.

上面的字母圖表表明，長期實現的蓋脈衝脈衝（LTCI）已落到較低的支撐區。

Historically, this level has been a turning point. Currently, the blue line, which is the LTCI, is testing the green support area.

從歷史上看，這一水平一直是一個轉折點。目前，LTCI的藍線正在測試綠色支撐區。

Data has shown similar conditions in the past led to strong reversals, such as in early 2020 and mid-2024. If LTCI rebounds from its current level of around 0.5 to 1.0, it may indicate long-term holders are confident. But if the line breaks below the 0 level, it would suggest that even the most patient investors are beginning to sell. That could add to downward pressure and result in further declines.

過去的數據顯示了相似的條件導致了強烈的逆轉，例如2020年初和2024年中期。如果LTCI從目前的0.5至1.0左右反彈，則可能表明長期持有人有信心。但是，如果線路突破低於0級別，則表明即使是最耐心的投資者也開始出售。這可能會增加壓力，並導致進一步下降。

Moreover, the pattern is the same as the Realized Cap Impulse. Since early 2024, it has been fluctuating near the baseline, between the -1.0 and +2.0 range. On April 12, 2025, the indicator stays close to the green Decision Zone line. This could support price stability if it holds, but a break below could shift sentiment further.

此外，模式與已實現的帽脈衝相同。自2024年初以來，它一直在基線附近波動，介於-1.0和+2.0範圍之間。 2025年4月12日，該指標靠近綠色決策區線。如果價格穩定，這可能會支持穩定性，但是突破以下可能會進一步改變情緒。

Long-Term Holders May Define the Next Trend

長期持有人可以定義下一個趨勢

The Long Term Realized Cap Impulse is concerned with long-term holders, i.e., investors who have held their Bitcoin for longer than 155 days. These holders are less likely to react to short-term price changes and tend to accumulate in downturns.

長期意識到的Cap Impulse關注的是長期持有人，即投資者，他們的比特幣超過155天。這些持有人不太可能對短期價格變化做出反應，並且往往會在低迷中積累。

This group’s current behaviour is crucial. It may support the price and prevent large sell-offs if they continue holding or buying. However, if these holders start to exit, it may be an indication of a change in sentiment. But this has happened before, like in the 2018 and 2022 market lows, when capitulation caused sharp drops.

該小組的當前行為至關重要。如果繼續持有或購買，它可能會支持價格並防止大型拋售。但是，如果這些持有人開始退出，則可能表明情緒變化。但這以前發生了，例如2018年和2022年市場低點，當時投降導致急劇下降。

This moment appears similar. Bitcoin’s price is currently around $84,590. As Alphractal’s chart shows, in previous cycles, price reactions followed long-term holder activity pretty closely. Given that the LTCI is near the lower threshold, the coming weeks will indicate if this group is stepping in or stepping out.

這一刻看起來相似。比特幣的價格目前約為84,590美元。正如Alphractal的圖表所示，在先前的周期中，價格反應非常緊密地遵循了長期持有人的活動。鑑於LTCI接近較低的閾值，接下來的幾週將表明該組是否正在介入或介入。

Wedge Breakout Targets $96K–$102K Zone

楔形突破目標$ 96K - $ 102K區域

According to analyst Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin has broken out of a descending broadening wedge—a bullish reversal pattern. The breakout was marked by a move above the wedge’s upper boundary.

根據加密貨幣的分析師泰坦（Titan）的說法，比特幣已經擺脫了朝下的擴大楔形，這是一種看漲的逆轉模式。突破的標誌是楔形上邊界上方的移動。

A blue circle marks the breakout point. Titan of Crypto projects a price range between $96,294 and $102,127—aligned with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from prior moves.

藍色圓圈標記了突破點。加密貨幣的泰坦（Titan）的價格範圍在96,294美元至102,127美元之間，與先前的舉動相吻合的61.8％和78.6％的斐波那契回溯水平。

To confirm this breakout, Bitcoin must sustain closes above the wedge’s upper trendline. A successful retest could invite fresh buying interest. Conversely, failure to hold above this level might lead to a pullback below $80,000.

為了確認這一突破，比特幣必須在楔形的上部趨勢線上維持關閉。成功的重新測試可能會引起新的購買興趣。相反，如果不超過此水平，則可能導致低於80,000美元的回調。

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

在本文中，作者或任何人所指定的觀點和觀點僅用於信息目的，並且他們不建立投資，財務或任何其他建議。對加密貨幣資產進行交易或投資具有財務損失的風險。