比特币积累激增引发看涨乐观情绪，但历史警告潜在的延迟

在看涨情绪不断增强的情况下，比特币鲸鱼（持有 1000-10k BTC）和散户投资者（持有少于 1 BTC）都在积累 BTC，自 2024 年 1 月以来，鲸鱼持有量增加了 26.6 万。市场指标显示，中小投资者的 FOMO 情绪很高，而历史数据警告减半后可能出现价格调整，其中外汇储备指标和供应调整后的代币销毁天数指标是未来几周需要监控的关键指标。

Bitcoin Accumulation Surge Hints at Bullish Sentiment, but Historical Patterns Temper Expectations

比特币积累激增暗示看涨情绪，但历史模式削弱了预期

Amidst a surge of optimism, Bitcoin whales and smaller holders alike have amassed significant amounts of BTC, signaling a potential bull run. However, historical data casts a cautionary tale, suggesting that the expected price surge could be delayed.

在乐观情绪高涨的情况下，比特币鲸鱼和小持有者都积累了大量比特币，这预示着潜在的牛市。然而，历史数据给出了警示，表明预期的价格飙升可能会被推迟。

Whale Tier Acquisition Surge

鲸鱼层收购激增

Analysis by Santiment reveals that the whale tier holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has accumulated an impressive 266,000 Bitcoin since the start of 2024. This accumulation trend is indicative of increased confidence among whales, who typically drive market movements.

Santiment 的分析显示，自 2024 年初以来，持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的鲸鱼已经积累了令人印象深刻的 266,000 比特币。这种积累趋势表明鲸鱼的信心增强，而鲸鱼通常会推动市场走势。

Retail FOMO Propels Accumulation

零售业的 FOMO 推动了积累

Smaller holders, with under 1 BTC, have also been actively accumulating Bitcoin in recent weeks. This surge in retail interest, fueled by the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), is a key driver behind the overall increase in BTC demand.

最近几周，持有 1 比特币以下的小规模持有者也一直在积极积累比特币。由于“害怕错过”（FOMO）的推动，散户兴趣激增，是比特币需求整体增长的关键驱动力。

Bullish Sentiment Prevails After Halving

减半后看涨情绪盛行

The recent Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins entering circulation, has sparked bullish sentiment. The Weighted Sentiment (1-week interval) has reached its highest level in 2024, underscoring the positive market outlook.

最近的比特币减半事件减少了进入流通的新硬币的供应，引发了看涨情绪。加权情绪（1周间隔）已达到2024年的最高水平，凸显了积极的市场前景。

Historical Parallels Temper Optimism

历史的相似之处缓和了乐观情绪

However, historical patterns suggest that the anticipated bull run could be delayed. In the previous halving cycle, the exchange reserve metric, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges, jumped higher approximately six weeks after the halving. This increase in supply led to a 20% correction in Bitcoin's price a month later.

然而，历史模式表明预期的牛市可能会被推迟。在上一个减半周期中，追踪可在交易所出售的比特币数量的交易所储备指标在减半后大约六周大幅上升。供应量的增加导致一个月后比特币价格回调 20%。

Potential Correction on the Horizon

即将到来的潜在修正

If history repeats itself, a similar bounce in the exchange reserve metric could occur in early June, followed by a potential correction around July. This scenario should be closely monitored by investors and traders.

如果历史重演，外汇储备指标可能会在 6 月初出现类似的反弹，然后在 7 月左右可能出现修正。投资者和交易者应密切关注这种情况。

Long-Term Holders Take Profits

长期持有者获利了结

The Bitcoin supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures the age of coins being spent, recently spiked to its highest level in four years. This indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are taking profits, which could temporarily cap the price rally.

比特币供应调整后的货币销毁天数（CDD）指标衡量了货币的使用时间，最近飙升至四年来的最高水平。这表明长期持有者（LTH）正在获利了结，这可能会暂时限制价格上涨。

Bull Run Potential Remains

牛市潜力依然存在

Despite the historical caution, the recent accumulation by both whales and retail investors, coupled with the rising accumulation, suggests that a sustained bull run could be imminent. Long-term investors should approach the market with cautious optimism, monitoring key metrics and market sentiment for signs of a potential correction.

尽管历史上持谨慎态度，但鲸鱼和散户投资者最近的增持，加上增持的不断增加，表明持续的牛市可能即将到来。长期投资者应以谨慎乐观的态度对待市场，监测关键指标和市场情绪，寻找潜在回调的迹象。

In conclusion, while the current market sentiment is bullish, historical patterns and metrics indicate that the anticipated bull run may be tempered by temporary corrections. Investors should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions and be prepared to adjust their strategies as the market evolves.

总之，虽然当前的市场情绪看涨，但历史模式和指标表明，预期的牛市可能会因暂时的调整而受到抑制。投资者在做出投资决策时应仔细考虑这些因素，并准备好随着市场的变化调整策略。