比特幣累積激增引發看漲樂觀情緒，但歷史警告潛在的延遲

在看漲情緒不斷增強的情況下，比特幣鯨魚（持有1000-10k BTC）和散戶投資者（持有少於1 BTC）都在累積BTC，自2024 年1 月以來，鯨魚持有量增加了26.6 萬。指標。

Bitcoin Accumulation Surge Hints at Bullish Sentiment, but Historical Patterns Temper Expectations

比特幣累積激增暗示看漲情緒，但歷史模式削弱了預期

Amidst a surge of optimism, Bitcoin whales and smaller holders alike have amassed significant amounts of BTC, signaling a potential bull run. However, historical data casts a cautionary tale, suggesting that the expected price surge could be delayed.

在樂觀情緒高漲的情況下，比特幣鯨魚和小持有者都累積了大量比特幣，這預示著潛在的牛市。然而，歷史數據給出了警示，表明預期的價格飆升可能會被推遲。

Whale Tier Acquisition Surge

鯨魚層收購激增

Analysis by Santiment reveals that the whale tier holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has accumulated an impressive 266,000 Bitcoin since the start of 2024. This accumulation trend is indicative of increased confidence among whales, who typically drive market movements.

Santiment 的分析顯示，自 2024 年初以來，持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的鯨魚已經累積了令人印象深刻的 266,000 比特幣。

Retail FOMO Propels Accumulation

零售業的 FOMO 推動了積累

Smaller holders, with under 1 BTC, have also been actively accumulating Bitcoin in recent weeks. This surge in retail interest, fueled by the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), is a key driver behind the overall increase in BTC demand.

最近幾週，持有 1 比特幣以下的小規模持有者也一直在積極累積比特幣。由於「害怕錯過」（FOMO）的推動，散戶興趣激增，是比特幣需求整體成長的關鍵驅動力。

Bullish Sentiment Prevails After Halving

減半後看漲情緒盛行

The recent Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins entering circulation, has sparked bullish sentiment. The Weighted Sentiment (1-week interval) has reached its highest level in 2024, underscoring the positive market outlook.

最近的比特幣減半事件減少了進入流通的新硬幣的供應，引發了看漲情緒。加權情緒（1週間隔）已達到2024年的最高水平，凸顯了積極的市場前景。

Historical Parallels Temper Optimism

歷史的相似之處緩和了樂觀情緒

However, historical patterns suggest that the anticipated bull run could be delayed. In the previous halving cycle, the exchange reserve metric, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges, jumped higher approximately six weeks after the halving. This increase in supply led to a 20% correction in Bitcoin's price a month later.

然而，歷史模式表明預期的牛市可能會被推遲。在上一個減半週期中，追蹤可在交易所出售的比特幣數量的交易所儲備指標在減半後大約六週大幅上升。供應量的增加導致一個月後比特幣價格回檔 20%。

Potential Correction on the Horizon

即將到來的潛在修正

If history repeats itself, a similar bounce in the exchange reserve metric could occur in early June, followed by a potential correction around July. This scenario should be closely monitored by investors and traders.

如果歷史重演，外匯存底指標可能會在 6 月初出現類似的反彈，然後在 7 月左右可能會出現修正。投資者和交易者應密切注意這種情況。

Long-Term Holders Take Profits

長期持有者獲利了結

The Bitcoin supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures the age of coins being spent, recently spiked to its highest level in four years. This indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are taking profits, which could temporarily cap the price rally.

比特幣供應調整後的貨幣銷毀天數（CDD）指標衡量了貨幣的使用時間，最近飆升至四年來的最高水準。這表明長期持有者（LTH）正在獲利了結，這可能會暫時限制價格上漲。

Bull Run Potential Remains

牛市潛力依然存在

Despite the historical caution, the recent accumulation by both whales and retail investors, coupled with the rising accumulation, suggests that a sustained bull run could be imminent. Long-term investors should approach the market with cautious optimism, monitoring key metrics and market sentiment for signs of a potential correction.

儘管歷史上持謹慎態度，但鯨魚和散戶投資者最近的增持，加上增持的不斷增加，表明持續的牛市可能即將到來。長期投資者應以謹慎樂觀的態度對待市場，監測關鍵指標和市場情緒，尋找潛在回調的跡象。

In conclusion, while the current market sentiment is bullish, historical patterns and metrics indicate that the anticipated bull run may be tempered by temporary corrections. Investors should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions and be prepared to adjust their strategies as the market evolves.

總之，雖然當前的市場情緒看漲，但歷史模式和指標表明，預期的多頭市場可能會因暫時的調整而受到抑制。投資人在做出投資決策時應仔細考慮這些因素，並準備好隨著市場的變化調整策略。