Steno Research 断言 2025 年将是加密货币最好的一年，预测比特币和以太坊价格将会上涨

随着新年的到来，加密货币领域充斥着对 2025 年情况的预测。在最近分享前景的公司中

As the new year begins, the crypto space is abuzz with predictions for 2025. Among the firms that have recently shared their outlook is Steno Research. In their December 2024 report, the company outlined its predictions for the new year, which are largely optimistic.

新年伊始，加密货币领域充斥着对 2025 年的预测。最近分享前景的公司包括 Steno Research。在 2024 年 12 月的报告中，该公司概述了对新的一年的预测，基本上是乐观的。

According to analysts at financial research firm Steno Research, 2025 will be crypto's best year yet. They made this announcement in the December 2024 report, which included predictions for the upcoming year.

金融研究公司 Steno Research 的分析师表示，2025 年将是加密货币领域迄今为止最好的一年。他们在 2024 年 12 月的报告中宣布了这一消息，其中包括对来年的预测。

Steno Research pointed to several factors that supported its conviction, including anticipated favorable regulations under a Donald Trump-led administration, supportive macroeconomic conditions as interest rates decline to boost liquidity, and unparalleled levels of institutional adoption driven by spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Steno Research 指出了支持其信念的几个因素，包括唐纳德·特朗普领导的政府预期的有利监管、利率下降以增加流动性而带来的支持性宏观经济条件，以及现货比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金推动的无与伦比的机构采用水平（ETF）。

Similar to 2024, we expect the U.S. crypto ETFs to take center stage once again in 2025, partly due to the direct buying pressure they generate and partly because they serve as a proxy for non-native crypto retail and institutional interest in the asset class.

与 2024 年类似，我们预计美国加密货币 ETF 将在 2025 年再次成为焦点，部分原因是它们产生的直接购买压力，部分原因是它们充当了非本地加密货币零售和机构对该资产类别兴趣的代表。

We project that… pic.twitter.com/T8cs5gEbJy

我们预计…… pic.twitter.com/T8cs5gEbJy

— Mads Eberhardt (@MadsEberhardt) December 30, 2024

- 麦兹·埃伯哈特 (@MadsEberhardt) 2024 年 12 月 30 日

The firm expects inflows into these products to spike in 2025. Bitcoin ETFs will attract $48 billion in net inflows in 2025, the firm said, averaging $4 billion in monthly inflows. This would mark a 36% increase from the $35.24 billion recorded in 2024, per SoSoValue data.

该公司预计这些产品的资金流入将在 2025 年激增。该公司表示，比特币 ETF 将在 2025 年吸引 480 亿美元的净流入，平均每月流入 40 亿美元。根据 SoSoValue 数据，这将比 2024 年记录的 352.4 亿美元增长 36%。

At the same time, Steno Research believes Ethereum ETFs will generate a total of $28.5 billion in net inflows in 2025, averaging $2 billion a month in the first half of the year and $3.5 billion in the second half. The firm bases this estimate on the belief that these products will eventually be able to stake a portion of their holdings to earn yield for investors by the second half of the year under a more favorable SEC.

与此同时，Steno Research认为，以太坊ETF将在2025年产生总计285亿美元的净流入，上半年平均每月20亿美元，下半年平均每月35亿美元。该公司的这一估计基于这样的信念：在更有利的 SEC 监管下，这些产品最终将能够在今年下半年之前将其持有的部分资产出售，从而为投资者赚取收益。

Unsurprisingly, all of these factors equate to higher crypto asset prices. For one, Steno Research predicts that Bitcoin will soar as high as $150,000, representing a nearly 56% increase from the current price of about $96,200.

毫不奇怪，所有这些因素都等同于更高的加密资产价格。其一，Steno Research 预测比特币将飙升至 15 万美元，较目前约 96,200 美元的价格上涨近 56%。

Interestingly, Steno Research expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in 2025, predicting that the ETH/BTC ratio will recover to 0.06 from current levels around 0.0357. For the firm, this ETH/BTC ratio recovery translates to a $8,000 price target for ETH, representing an over 135% increase from the current price of about $3,400.

有趣的是，Steno Research 预计以太坊将在 2025 年跑赢比特币，预测 ETH/BTC 比率将从目前 0.0357 左右的水平恢复至 0.06。对于该公司来说，ETH/BTC 比率的恢复意味着 ETH 的目标价格为 8,000 美元，较当前约 3,400 美元的价格上涨了 135% 以上。

Altcoins to the Moon?

山寨币去月球？

Beyond Ethereum, Steno Research believes that altcoins, in general, will likely be on a tear in 2025. The firm makes this case by arguing that the Donald Trump administration favors altcoins more than Bitcoin as the latter already had significant regulatory clarity.

除了以太坊之外，Steno Research 认为，总体而言，山寨币可能会在 2025 年大幅上涨。该公司认为，唐纳德·特朗普政府比比特币更青睐山寨币，因为后者已经有了显着的监管明确性。

However, the firm expects the anticipated clarity for altcoins to increase adoption, especially by institutions that have long been restrained by regulatory considerations.

然而，该公司预计山寨币的预期清晰度将增加采用率，尤其是长期受到监管考虑限制的机构。

The result is expected to be a significant drop in Bitcoin’s market dominance from the present 57.42% to as low as 45%. At the same time, total value locked (TVL) in decentralized protocols is expected to hit record highs of $300 billion, up over 140% from roughly $123 billion at the time of writing.

预计结果将是比特币的市场主导地位从目前的 57.42% 大幅下降至 45%。与此同时，去中心化协议的锁定总价值 (TVL) 预计将创下 3000 亿美元的历史新高，比撰写本文时的约 1230 亿美元增长超过 140%。

According to Steno Research, these factors will usher in the so-called altcoin season.

据 Steno Research 称，这些因素将迎来所谓的山寨币季节。

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