渣打银行将 2024 年比特币价格预测上调至 15 万美元

渣打银行 (Standard Chartered) 的杰夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 将比特币 2024 年的价格预测上调至 15 万美元，这得益于 11 只 ETF 获得批准以及创纪录的 73,000 美元峰值。他仍然看好以太坊，理由是其在游戏和资产代币化方面的潜力。 Kendrick 讨论了加密货币市场波动性、ETF 投资趋势（比特币与黄金）以及投资动态。比特币 2024 年的旅程经历了飙升和小幅调整，ETF 的批准引发比特币飙升至 73,000 美元，并塑造了对未来增长的预期。

Standard Chartered Raises Bitcoin Forecast, Envisions a Brighter Future

渣打银行提高比特币预测，展望更光明的未来

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research and Emerging Markets (EM) FX Strategy at Standard Chartered, has provided valuable insights into Bitcoin's remarkable journey in 2024.

渣打银行加密货币研究和新兴市场 (EM) 外汇策略主管 Geoff Kendrick 为比特币 2024 年的非凡历程提供了宝贵的见解。

Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory

比特币的看涨轨迹

Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price prediction, initially forecasting a year-end price of $100,000 in November 2023. The bank has since adjusted its forecast, now predicting BTC to hit $150,000 in 2024.

渣打银行修改了比特币价格预测，最初预测 2023 年 11 月的年底价格为 10 万美元。此后该银行调整了预测，目前预测 2024 年比特币价格将达到 15 万美元。

Kendrick and Standard Chartered envision an even brighter future for Bitcoin, with expectations for the cryptocurrency to potentially reach $250,000 by 2025. This projection is based on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is anticipated to further bolster the asset's price.

Kendrick 和渣打银行展望了比特币更加光明的未来，预计到 2025 年该加密货币的价格可能会达到 25 万美元。这一预测基于即将到来的比特币减半事件，预计该事件将进一步推高该资产的价格。

ETF Boom and Gold-Like Stability

ETF 繁荣和黄金般的稳定性

Kendrick attributes Bitcoin's bullish forecast to several factors, including the correlation between its price and the influx of investments into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He highlights the $11 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in the United States on January 11, which has resulted in a $25,000 increase in Bitcoin's price.

肯德里克将比特币的看涨预测归因于几个因素，包括其价格与交易所交易基金（ETF）投资涌入之间的相关性。他强调，自 1 月 11 日比特币 ETF 在美国推出以来，已有 110 亿美元净流入，导致比特币价格上涨 25,000 美元。

Kendrick also draws parallels between the growth trajectories of Bitcoin and gold ETFs. He suggests that a similar multiplier effect could apply to Bitcoin, leading to a potential price increase of up to $200,000.

肯德里克还将比特币和黄金 ETF 的增长轨迹进行了比较。他认为类似的乘数效应可能适用于比特币，导致价格可能上涨高达 20 万美元。

Volatility and Support Levels

波动性和支撑位

Kendrick acknowledges Bitcoin's volatility, noting recent declines from above $70,000 to around $60,500. However, he interprets this movement as significant but reasonable volatility for Bitcoin, characterized by an 80% pullback level.

Kendrick 承认比特币的波动性，并指出最近从 70,000 美元以上跌至 60,500 美元左右。然而，他将这一走势解释为比特币的显着但合理的波动，其特点是 80% 的回调水平。

Despite the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick expresses confidence that Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000. He anticipates a recovery and the setting of new highs in forthcoming weeks.

尽管近期比特币 ETF 出现资金流出，但 Kendrick 表示有信心比特币不会跌破 60,000 美元。他预计未来几周将出现复苏并创下新高。

Bitcoin 2.0: Less Risky Market and Stablecoin Influx

比特币 2.0：风险较小的市场和稳定币涌入

Compared to Bitcoin's first all-time high (ATH) in 2021, Kendrick highlights a significant influx of approximately $11 billion into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January 10. This capital is likely to remain stable compared to leveraged futures positions.

与比特币在 2021 年首次创下历史新高 (ATH) 相比，Kendrick 强调，自 1 月 10 日以来，已有约 110 亿美元大量涌入现货交易所交易基金 (ETF)。与杠杆期货头寸相比，这笔资金可能会保持稳定。

Additionally, there has been substantial growth in open interest in both futures and options markets since the same date, indicating a potentially bullish sentiment. Kendrick assumes that most of these positions are long positions, and notes that the options market is deeper in this cycle compared to 2021.

此外，自同一日期以来，期货和期权市场的未平仓合约均大幅增长，表明潜在的看涨情绪。 Kendrick 假设这些头寸大部分是多头头寸，并指出与 2021 年相比，本周期的期权市场更深。

Altcoin Boom Fueled by Awareness

意识推动山寨币繁荣

Kendrick discusses the phenomenon of altcoins, which gained significant attention during the 2021 cycle. He observes that Bitcoin's rise typically precedes that of Ethereum and subsequently altcoins, a pattern that has been consistent with the current market trends.

Kendrick 讨论了山寨币现象，该现象在 2021 年周期中获得了广泛关注。他观察到，比特币的上涨通常先于以太坊，然后是山寨币，这种模式与当前的市场趋势一致。

However, Kendrick notes that altcoins have accelerated more quickly in this cycle compared to the last. He attributes this difference to a deeper market and greater awareness of altcoins.

然而，肯德里克指出，与上一个周期相比，山寨币在这个周期中的加速速度更快。他将这种差异归因于更深层次的市场和对山寨币的更高认识。

Ethereum's Potential and Regulatory Challenges

以太坊的潜力和监管挑战

Kendrick weighs in on the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing a new legal strategy to potentially classify Ethereum as a security. He highlights the potential ramifications this move could have on the cryptocurrency ETF market.

肯德里克对美国证券交易委员会（SEC）宣布一项新的法律策略发表了看法，该策略可能将以太坊归类为证券。他强调了此举可能对加密货币 ETF 市场产生的潜在影响。

However, Kendrick emphasizes that the SEC's classification of Ethereum as a security is not a foregone conclusion. He also points out that the SEC's previous attempt to classify 67 cryptos as securities during the Ripple case did not include Ethereum.

不过，肯德里克强调，美国证券交易委员会将以太坊归类为证券并不是已成定局。他还指出，SEC 之前在 Ripple 案件中尝试将 67 种加密货币归类为证券，但不包括以太坊。

Kendrick observes a noticeable shift in market sentiment regarding the approval of an Ethereum ETF by the specified date of May 23. However, he speculates that prospects for an Ethereum ETF could improve significantly after the American Presidential election, especially if there's a change in the executive.

Kendrick 观察到，在 5 月 23 日指定日期之前，市场情绪对于以太坊 ETF 的批准发生了明显变化。不过，他推测，美国总统大选后，以太坊 ETF 的前景可能会显着改善，特别是如果高管发生变动的话。

Kendrick discusses the complexities introduced by Ethereum's proof-of-stake mechanism and its implications for other cryptocurrencies utilizing similar consensus mechanisms. He notes that Ethereum's proof-of-stake model shares similarities with various asset classes, complicating its regulatory assessment.

肯德里克讨论了以太坊的权益证明机制带来的复杂性及其对使用类似共识机制的其他加密货币的影响。他指出，以太坊的权益证明模型与各种资产类别有相似之处，这使得其监管评估变得复杂。

Kendrick suggests that Ethereum's staking returns could best be managed within actively managed portfolios or funds that broadly trade digital assets. He also mentions the existence of an ETF in Europe that incorporates Ethereum's staking returns, but notes that the fees associated with this ETF nearly cancel out the staking yields for the end user.

肯德里克建议，以太坊的质押回报最好在积极管理的投资组合或广泛交易数字资产的基金中进行管理。他还提到欧洲存在一种包含以太坊质押收益的 ETF，但他指出，与该 ETF 相关的费用几乎抵消了最终用户的质押收益。

Ethereum's Price Targets and Real-World Applications

以太坊的价格目标和实际应用

Kendrick projects that Ethereum is likely to keep pace with Bitcoin through 2024, maintaining its price ratio even in the absence of an ETF approval on the speculated date of May 23. He anticipates Ethereum could reach a valuation of around $8,000 by the end of this year, assuming Bitcoin hits his forecast of $150,000.

Kendrick 预计，到 2024 年，以太坊可能会与比特币保持同步，即使在 5 月 23 日没有获得 ETF 批准的情况下，也能维持其价格比率。他预计，到今年年底，以太坊的估值可能会达到 8,000 美元左右，假设比特币达到他的预测 150,000 美元。

Looking ahead to 2025, Kendrick identifies real-world applications for Ethereum, particularly in the gaming sector. He points out that popular games like Minecraft represent a market ripe for disruption by Web3 technologies, positioning Ethereum as a key platform for next-generation games.

展望 2025 年，Kendrick 确定了以太坊的实际应用，特别是在游戏领域。他指出，像《我的世界》这样的流行游戏代表了一个可以被 Web3 技术颠覆的市场，将以太坊定位为下一代游戏的关键平台。

Kendrick also mentions the potential for tokenization of real-world assets on the Ethereum blockchain. He predicts positive developments there could elevate Ethereum's price ratio relative to Bitcoin to about 7%, a level last seen in 2021, by 2025. Based on his Bitcoin forecast of $200,000 for the next year, this adjustment could see Ethereum's value soar to approximately $14,000.

肯德里克还提到了以太坊区块链上现实世界资产代币化的潜力。他预测，到 2025 年，以太坊相对于比特币的积极发展可能会将其价格比率提升至 7% 左右，这是 2021 年出现的水平。根据他对明年比特币价格 20 万美元的预测，这一调整可能会让以太坊的价值飙升至约 14,000 美元。