渣打銀行將 2024 年比特幣價格預測上調至 15 萬美元

渣打銀行 (Standard Chartered) 的 Geoff Kendrick 將比特幣 2024 年的價格預測上調至 15 萬美元，這得益於 11 只 ETF 獲得批准以及創紀錄的 73,000 美元峰值。他仍然看好以太坊，理由是其在遊戲和資產代幣化方面的潛力。 Kendrick 討論了加密貨幣市場波動性、ETF 投資趨勢（比特幣與黃金）以及投資動態。比特幣 2024 年的旅程經歷了飆升和小幅調整，ETF 的批准引發比特幣飆升至 73,000 美元，並塑造了對未來成長的預期。

Standard Chartered Raises Bitcoin Forecast, Envisions a Brighter Future

渣打銀行提高比特幣預測，展望更光明的未來

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research and Emerging Markets (EM) FX Strategy at Standard Chartered, has provided valuable insights into Bitcoin's remarkable journey in 2024.

渣打銀行加密貨幣研究和新興市場 (EM) 外匯策略主管 Geoff Kendrick 為比特幣 2024 年的非凡歷程提供了寶貴的見解。

Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory

比特幣的看漲軌跡

Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price prediction, initially forecasting a year-end price of $100,000 in November 2023. The bank has since adjusted its forecast, now predicting BTC to hit $150,000 in 2024.

渣打銀行修改了比特幣價格預測，最初預測 2023 年 11 月的年底價格為 10 萬美元。此後該銀行調整了預測，目前預測 2024 年比特幣價格將達到 15 萬美元。

Kendrick and Standard Chartered envision an even brighter future for Bitcoin, with expectations for the cryptocurrency to potentially reach $250,000 by 2025. This projection is based on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is anticipated to further bolster the asset's price.

Kendrick 和渣打銀行展望了比特幣更加光明的未來，預計到2025 年該加密貨幣的價格可能會達到25 萬美元。這項預測基於即將到來的比特幣減半事件，預計該事件將進一步推高該資產的價格。

ETF Boom and Gold-Like Stability

ETF 繁榮和黃金般的穩定性

Kendrick attributes Bitcoin's bullish forecast to several factors, including the correlation between its price and the influx of investments into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He highlights the $11 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in the United States on January 11, which has resulted in a $25,000 increase in Bitcoin's price.

肯德里克將比特幣的看漲預測歸因於幾個因素，包括其價格與交易所交易基金（ETF）投資湧入之間的相關性。他強調，自 1 月 11 日比特幣 ETF 在美國推出以來，已有 110 億美元淨流入，導致比特幣價格上漲 25,000 美元。

Kendrick also draws parallels between the growth trajectories of Bitcoin and gold ETFs. He suggests that a similar multiplier effect could apply to Bitcoin, leading to a potential price increase of up to $200,000.

肯德里克還將比特幣和黃金 ETF 的成長軌跡進行了比較。他認為類似的乘數效應可能適用於比特幣，導致價格可能上漲高達 20 萬美元。

Volatility and Support Levels

波動性和支撐位

Kendrick acknowledges Bitcoin's volatility, noting recent declines from above $70,000 to around $60,500. However, he interprets this movement as significant but reasonable volatility for Bitcoin, characterized by an 80% pullback level.

Kendrick 承認比特幣的波動性，並指出最近從 70,000 美元以上跌至 60,500 美元左右。然而，他將這一走勢解釋為比特幣的顯著但合理的波動，其特徵是 80% 的回調水平。

Despite the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick expresses confidence that Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000. He anticipates a recovery and the setting of new highs in forthcoming weeks.

儘管近期比特幣 ETF 出現資金流出，但 Kendrick 表示有信心比特幣不會跌破 6 萬美元。他預計未來幾週將出現復甦並創下新高。

Bitcoin 2.0: Less Risky Market and Stablecoin Influx

比特幣 2.0：風險較小的市場和穩定幣湧入

Compared to Bitcoin's first all-time high (ATH) in 2021, Kendrick highlights a significant influx of approximately $11 billion into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January 10. This capital is likely to remain stable compared to leveraged futures positions.

與比特幣在2021 年首次創下歷史新高(ATH) 相比，Kendrick 強調，自1 月10 日以來，已有約110 億美元大量湧入現貨交易所交易基金(ETF)。與槓桿期貨頭寸相比，這筆資金可能會保持穩定。

Additionally, there has been substantial growth in open interest in both futures and options markets since the same date, indicating a potentially bullish sentiment. Kendrick assumes that most of these positions are long positions, and notes that the options market is deeper in this cycle compared to 2021.

此外，自同一日期以來，期貨和選擇權市場的未平倉合約均大幅成長，顯示潛在的看漲情緒。 Kendrick 假設這些部位大部分是多頭頭寸，並指出與 2021 年相比，本週期的選擇權市場更深。

Altcoin Boom Fueled by Awareness

意識推動山寨幣繁榮

Kendrick discusses the phenomenon of altcoins, which gained significant attention during the 2021 cycle. He observes that Bitcoin's rise typically precedes that of Ethereum and subsequently altcoins, a pattern that has been consistent with the current market trends.

Kendrick 討論了山寨幣現象，該現像在 2021 年周期中獲得了廣泛關注。他觀察到，比特幣的上漲通常先於以太坊，然後是山寨幣，這種模式與當前的市場趨勢一致。

However, Kendrick notes that altcoins have accelerated more quickly in this cycle compared to the last. He attributes this difference to a deeper market and greater awareness of altcoins.

然而，肯德里克指出，與上一個週期相比，山寨幣在這個週期中的加速速度更快。他將這種差異歸因於更深層的市場和對山寨幣的更高認識。

Ethereum's Potential and Regulatory Challenges

以太坊的潛力與監管挑戰

Kendrick weighs in on the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing a new legal strategy to potentially classify Ethereum as a security. He highlights the potential ramifications this move could have on the cryptocurrency ETF market.

肯德里克對美國證券交易委員會（SEC）宣布一項新的法律策略發表了看法，該策略可能將以太坊歸類為證券。他強調了此舉可能對加密貨幣 ETF 市場的潛在影響。

However, Kendrick emphasizes that the SEC's classification of Ethereum as a security is not a foregone conclusion. He also points out that the SEC's previous attempt to classify 67 cryptos as securities during the Ripple case did not include Ethereum.

不過，肯德里克強調，美國證券交易委員會將以太坊歸類為證券並不是已成定局。他還指出，SEC 先前在 Ripple 案件中曾嘗試將 67 種加密貨幣歸類為證券，但不包括以太坊。

Kendrick observes a noticeable shift in market sentiment regarding the approval of an Ethereum ETF by the specified date of May 23. However, he speculates that prospects for an Ethereum ETF could improve significantly after the American Presidential election, especially if there's a change in the executive.

Kendrick 觀察到，在5 月23 日指定日期之前，市場情緒對於以太坊ETF 的批准發生了明顯變化。不過，他推測，美國總統大選後，以太坊ETF 的前景可能會顯著改善，特別是如果高階主管發生變動的話。

Kendrick discusses the complexities introduced by Ethereum's proof-of-stake mechanism and its implications for other cryptocurrencies utilizing similar consensus mechanisms. He notes that Ethereum's proof-of-stake model shares similarities with various asset classes, complicating its regulatory assessment.

肯德里克討論了以太坊的權益證明機制所帶來的複雜性及其對使用類似共識機制的其他加密貨幣的影響。他指出，以太坊的權益證明模型與各種資產類別有相似之處，使得其監管評估變得複雜。

Kendrick suggests that Ethereum's staking returns could best be managed within actively managed portfolios or funds that broadly trade digital assets. He also mentions the existence of an ETF in Europe that incorporates Ethereum's staking returns, but notes that the fees associated with this ETF nearly cancel out the staking yields for the end user.

肯德里克建議，以太坊的質押回報最好在積極管理的投資組合或廣泛交易數位資產的基金中進行管理。他也提到歐洲有一種包含以太坊質押收益的 ETF，但他指出，與該 ETF 相關的費用幾乎抵消了最終用戶的質押收益。

Ethereum's Price Targets and Real-World Applications

以太坊的價格目標與實際應用

Kendrick projects that Ethereum is likely to keep pace with Bitcoin through 2024, maintaining its price ratio even in the absence of an ETF approval on the speculated date of May 23. He anticipates Ethereum could reach a valuation of around $8,000 by the end of this year, assuming Bitcoin hits his forecast of $150,000.

Kendrick 預計，到2024 年，以太坊可能會與比特幣保持同步，即使在5 月23 日沒有獲得ETF 批准的情況下，也能維持其價格比率。他預計，到今年年底，以太坊的估值可能會達到8,000 美元左右，假設比特幣達到他的預測 15 萬美元。

Looking ahead to 2025, Kendrick identifies real-world applications for Ethereum, particularly in the gaming sector. He points out that popular games like Minecraft represent a market ripe for disruption by Web3 technologies, positioning Ethereum as a key platform for next-generation games.

展望 2025 年，Kendrick 確定了以太坊的實際應用，特別是在遊戲領域。他指出，像《我的世界》這樣的熱門遊戲代表了一個可以被 Web3 技術顛覆的市場，將以太坊定位為下一代遊戲的關鍵平台。

Kendrick also mentions the potential for tokenization of real-world assets on the Ethereum blockchain. He predicts positive developments there could elevate Ethereum's price ratio relative to Bitcoin to about 7%, a level last seen in 2021, by 2025. Based on his Bitcoin forecast of $200,000 for the next year, this adjustment could see Ethereum's value soar to approximately $14,000.

肯德里克也提到了以太坊區塊鏈上現實世界資產代幣化的潛力。他預測，到2025 年，以太坊相對於比特幣的積極發展可能會將其價格比率提升至7% 左右，這是2021 年出現的水平。根據他對明年比特幣價格20 萬美元的預測，這一調整可能會讓以太坊的價值飆升至約14,000 美元。