Standard Chartered Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $150,000 in 2024

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick raised Bitcoin's 2024 price forecast to $150,000, boosted by 11 ETF approvals and a record $73,000 peak. He remains bullish on Ethereum, citing its potential in gaming and asset tokenization. Kendrick discussed crypto market volatility, ETF investment trends (Bitcoin vs. gold), and investment dynamics. Bitcoin's journey in 2024 has featured a surge and minor corrections, with the ETF approvals sparking a surge to $73,000 and shaping expectations for future growth.

Standard Chartered Raises Bitcoin Forecast, Envisions a Brighter Future

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research and Emerging Markets (EM) FX Strategy at Standard Chartered, has provided valuable insights into Bitcoin's remarkable journey in 2024.

Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory

Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price prediction, initially forecasting a year-end price of $100,000 in November 2023. The bank has since adjusted its forecast, now predicting BTC to hit $150,000 in 2024.

Kendrick and Standard Chartered envision an even brighter future for Bitcoin, with expectations for the cryptocurrency to potentially reach $250,000 by 2025. This projection is based on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is anticipated to further bolster the asset's price.

ETF Boom and Gold-Like Stability

Kendrick attributes Bitcoin's bullish forecast to several factors, including the correlation between its price and the influx of investments into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He highlights the $11 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in the United States on January 11, which has resulted in a $25,000 increase in Bitcoin's price.

Kendrick also draws parallels between the growth trajectories of Bitcoin and gold ETFs. He suggests that a similar multiplier effect could apply to Bitcoin, leading to a potential price increase of up to $200,000.

Volatility and Support Levels

Kendrick acknowledges Bitcoin's volatility, noting recent declines from above $70,000 to around $60,500. However, he interprets this movement as significant but reasonable volatility for Bitcoin, characterized by an 80% pullback level.

Despite the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick expresses confidence that Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000. He anticipates a recovery and the setting of new highs in forthcoming weeks.

Bitcoin 2.0: Less Risky Market and Stablecoin Influx

Compared to Bitcoin's first all-time high (ATH) in 2021, Kendrick highlights a significant influx of approximately $11 billion into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January 10. This capital is likely to remain stable compared to leveraged futures positions.

Additionally, there has been substantial growth in open interest in both futures and options markets since the same date, indicating a potentially bullish sentiment. Kendrick assumes that most of these positions are long positions, and notes that the options market is deeper in this cycle compared to 2021.

Altcoin Boom Fueled by Awareness

Kendrick discusses the phenomenon of altcoins, which gained significant attention during the 2021 cycle. He observes that Bitcoin's rise typically precedes that of Ethereum and subsequently altcoins, a pattern that has been consistent with the current market trends.

However, Kendrick notes that altcoins have accelerated more quickly in this cycle compared to the last. He attributes this difference to a deeper market and greater awareness of altcoins.

Ethereum's Potential and Regulatory Challenges

Kendrick weighs in on the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing a new legal strategy to potentially classify Ethereum as a security. He highlights the potential ramifications this move could have on the cryptocurrency ETF market.

However, Kendrick emphasizes that the SEC's classification of Ethereum as a security is not a foregone conclusion. He also points out that the SEC's previous attempt to classify 67 cryptos as securities during the Ripple case did not include Ethereum.

Kendrick observes a noticeable shift in market sentiment regarding the approval of an Ethereum ETF by the specified date of May 23. However, he speculates that prospects for an Ethereum ETF could improve significantly after the American Presidential election, especially if there's a change in the executive.

Kendrick discusses the complexities introduced by Ethereum's proof-of-stake mechanism and its implications for other cryptocurrencies utilizing similar consensus mechanisms. He notes that Ethereum's proof-of-stake model shares similarities with various asset classes, complicating its regulatory assessment.

Kendrick suggests that Ethereum's staking returns could best be managed within actively managed portfolios or funds that broadly trade digital assets. He also mentions the existence of an ETF in Europe that incorporates Ethereum's staking returns, but notes that the fees associated with this ETF nearly cancel out the staking yields for the end user.

Ethereum's Price Targets and Real-World Applications

Kendrick projects that Ethereum is likely to keep pace with Bitcoin through 2024, maintaining its price ratio even in the absence of an ETF approval on the speculated date of May 23. He anticipates Ethereum could reach a valuation of around $8,000 by the end of this year, assuming Bitcoin hits his forecast of $150,000.

Looking ahead to 2025, Kendrick identifies real-world applications for Ethereum, particularly in the gaming sector. He points out that popular games like Minecraft represent a market ripe for disruption by Web3 technologies, positioning Ethereum as a key platform for next-generation games.

Kendrick also mentions the potential for tokenization of real-world assets on the Ethereum blockchain. He predicts positive developments there could elevate Ethereum's price ratio relative to Bitcoin to about 7%, a level last seen in 2021, by 2025. Based on his Bitcoin forecast of $200,000 for the next year, this adjustment could see Ethereum's value soar to approximately $14,000.