CryptoQuant 创始人表示，稳定币可能不足以推动比特币牛市

稳定币在比特币牛市和熊市中发挥着至关重要的作用。它们是流动性流入比特币的媒介，也为看跌时期的保值提供了缓冲。

Stablecoins play a crucial role during Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets. They serve as the medium through which liquidity flows into BTC and also provide a buffer for holding value during bearish times. However, some believe that stablecoin liquidity may be holding back Bitcoin.

稳定币在比特币牛市和熊市中发挥着至关重要的作用。它们是流动性流入比特币的媒介，也为熊市时期的保值提供了缓冲。然而，一些人认为稳定币的流动性可能会阻碍比特币的发展。

According to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, in a recent analysis, stablecoins are not capable of driving bullish momentum. This statement assumes the most bullish scenario, accounting for both Bitcoin and stablecoin reserves.

CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 表示，在最近的分析中，稳定币无法推动看涨势头。该声明假设了最乐观的情况，考虑了比特币和稳定币储备。

“Over the past two weeks, we’ve observed significant ETF inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.

“过去两周，我们观察到以贝莱德 IBIT 为首的大量 ETF 资金流入。

If spot ETF inflows might slow down at some point, the BTC/USD buy-side pressure from brokerage firms like Coinbase Prime might weaken, potentially leading the market back into stagnation.…”

如果现货 ETF 流入可能在某个时候放缓，来自 Coinbase Prime 等经纪公司的 BTC/美元买方压力可能会减弱，从而可能导致市场重新陷入停滞……”

Ju’s analysis shows that Bitcoin reserves outpaced stablecoin reserves by more than 6-fold. This indicates that the current stablecoin reserves may not be sufficient to match peak Bitcoin demand.

Ju 的分析显示，比特币储备是稳定币储备的 6 倍多。这表明当前的稳定币储备可能不足以满足比特币需求峰值。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had a market cap of $1.38 trillion, while the collective stablecoin market cap stood at $172.887 billion.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的市值为 1.38 万亿美元，而稳定币的总市值为 1728.87 亿美元。

It’s noteworthy that the latter has grown from as low as $123.74 billion in September 2024 – its lowest level in the last 3 years.

值得注意的是，后者已从 2024 年 9 月的 1237.4 亿美元低位增长——这是过去 3 年来的最低水平。

The analysis also examined the role of ETFs in Bitcoin’s price action. It noted that a cooling down in Spot ETFs demand over the last 2 weeks was followed by weak demand.

该分析还研究了 ETF 在比特币价格走势中的作用。它指出，过去两周现货 ETF 需求降温，随后需求疲软。

The analysis also considered the possibility that Bitcoin’s price action risked stagnation if Spot EFT demand slows down to extreme lows.

该分析还考虑了如果即期电子转帐需求放缓至极低点，比特币价格走势可能面临停滞的风险。

This observation aligns with the latest price action and ETF flows. For instance, Bitcoin ETFs recently experienced a slowdown in demand on the last day of October after experiencing a week of positive flows.

这一观察结果与最新的价格走势和 ETF 流量一致。例如，比特币 ETF 在经历了一周的积极流动之后，最近在 10 月的最后一天经历了需求放缓。

The latest ETF data showed that Bitcoin ETFs concluded the week with net outflows. For example, ETFs recorded $54.9 million in outflows on Friday. Meanwhile, BTC has been struggling to recover back above $70,000 – confirming a slowdown in demand.

最新的 ETF 数据显示，比特币 ETF 本周以净流出结束。例如，ETF 周五录得 5,490 万美元的资金流出。与此同时，比特币一直在努力恢复到 70,000 美元以上，这证实了需求放缓。

However, Bitcoin ETFs are still up by 62% from their approval date earlier this year. Here’s a look at how the ETF flows have performed so far –

然而，比特币 ETF 仍比今年早些时候批准之日上涨了 62%。以下是 ETF 资金流迄今为止的表现：

At the time of writing, Bitcoin ETFs held over $24.4 billion. This impressive growth is a sign of the growing demand from the institutional class.

截至撰写本文时，比特币 ETF 持有量超过 244 亿美元。这种令人印象深刻的增长表明机构阶层的需求不断增长。

The latest outflows are likely connected to the uncertainty around the election period. It will be interesting to see how things play out after the elections.

最新的资金外流可能与选举期间的不确定性有关。看看选举后事情如何发展将会很有趣。

Moreover, institutional investors are responding to the latest news on the resurgence of global liquidity, which bodes well for crypto holders. This is because lower interest rates have been paving the way for a risk-on sentiment.

此外，机构投资者正在对全球流动性复苏的最新消息做出反应，这对加密货币持有者来说是个好兆头。这是因为较低的利率为冒险情绪铺平了道路。